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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris Result & Analysis

Date: 24/09/2023
Time: 14:55
Final 0-2
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Vs
57%
25%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Zalgiris Vilnius win✗ Miss
56.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris win✓ Hit
18.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D13L40W05L20W04L41W03L10W62WA·ŠIA06/08H·BK 10/08H·HEG13/08A·BK 17/08A·DAI20/08H·FER24/08H·DŽI27/08A·FER31/08H·BAN03/09A·FK 17/09
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.131.861.141.941.12
vs Stronger (4)0.502.501.003.000.002.00
vs Similar (8)2.001.752.001.402.002.33
vs Weaker (18)2.170.562.000.432.270.64
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-603L11D11D13L12L00D32W11D62W11DA·PAN07/07A·BAN18/07A·DAI22/07A·LEC27/07H·LEC03/08H·DŽI06/08H·FK 13/08A·HEG20/08A·SUD26/08A·ŠIA03/09
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.301.501.141.381.44
vs Stronger (2)1.002.501.002.001.003.00
vs Similar (12)1.001.831.201.800.861.86
vs Weaker (16)1.810.751.750.621.880.88
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.4%
Under 2.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.1%
Under 3.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.2%
No
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.7%
0-0
6.8%
3-0
6.2%
3-1
6.2%
1-2
5.3%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris goals →
01234
06.8%4.6%2.8%0.9%0.2%
19.7%12%5.3%1.7%0.4%
210.0%9.9%4.9%1.6%0.4%
36.2%6.2%3.1%1.0%0.3%
42.9%2.9%1.4%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Panevėžys
2.42
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.64
Šiauliai
1.64
Kauno Žalgiris
1.64
Banga
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
0.97
Dainava
0.86
Džiugas Telšiai
0.84
FK Trakai
0.69
Be1 NFA
0.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.44 points better than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 1.64).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.86
Panevėžys
1.78
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.69
Šiauliai
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
0.78
Džiugas Telšiai
0.74
FK Trakai
0.72
Dainava
0.69
Banga
0.61
Be1 NFA
0.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.17 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.69).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.39
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.78
Be1 NFA
1.00
Šiauliai
1.00
Dainava
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Banga
1.44
Džiugas Telšiai
1.45
Suduva Marijampole
1.67
FK Trakai
1.72
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.33 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L30W01L00D01L20W02L10W21WA·ŠIA06/08H·BK 10/08H·HEG13/08A·BK 17/08A·DAI20/08H·FER24/08H·DŽI27/08A·FER31/08H·BAN03/09A·FK 17/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.330.710.360.560.31
vs Stronger (4)0.001.000.000.500.001.50
vs Similar (8)1.000.381.000.401.000.33
vs Weaker (18)0.610.170.710.290.550.09
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W00D03L01L00D22D01L12L10WA·PAN07/07A·BAN18/07A·DAI22/07A·LEC27/07H·LEC03/08H·DŽI06/08H·FK 13/08A·HEG20/08A·SUD26/08A·ŠIA03/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.500.640.560.62
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (12)0.420.670.401.000.430.43
vs Weaker (16)0.690.440.620.380.750.50
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D12L10W04L20W03L21W01L00D41WA·ŠIA06/08H·BK 10/08H·HEG13/08A·BK 17/08A·DAI20/08H·FER24/08H·DŽI27/08A·FER31/08H·BAN03/09A·FK 17/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.801.140.791.380.81
vs Stronger (4)0.501.501.002.500.000.50
vs Similar (8)1.001.381.001.001.002.00
vs Weaker (18)1.560.391.290.141.730.55
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L01L11D10W11D00D10W10W50W01LA·PAN07/07A·BAN18/07A·DAI22/07A·LEC27/07H·LEC03/08H·DŽI06/08H·FK 13/08A·HEG20/08A·SUD26/08A·ŠIA03/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.671.000.500.810.81
vs Stronger (2)1.000.501.001.001.000.00
vs Similar (12)0.581.170.800.800.431.43
vs Weaker (16)1.120.311.120.251.120.38
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 11.5 corners78.9%--------
Over 1.578.9%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yuri Kendysh25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde33%
Nassim Hnid25%
Joel Bopesu25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Buff33%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde67%
Paulius Golubickas25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's squad is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€7m vs €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's attack is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€2m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris have a similar midfield value (both €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's defence is €1m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€3m vs €4m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
3
FZV wins
2
Draws
2
KŽ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris · H/A from FZV
DateH/AGameScore
27/06/23AKauno Žalgiris Vs FZV2-5
14/05/23HFZV Vs Kauno Žalgiris2-1
14/03/23AKauno Žalgiris Vs FZV1-1
23/11/22HFZV Vs Kauno Žalgiris2-3
11/09/22AKauno Žalgiris Vs FZV0-2
22/05/22HFZV Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-2
02/04/22AKauno Žalgiris Vs FZV2-2

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/23AFK Trakai Vs FZV2-6
03/09/23HFZV Vs Banga1-0
31/08/23AFerencvarosi TC Vs FZV3-0
27/08/23HFZV Vs Džiugas Telšiai4-1
24/08/23HFZV Vs Ferencvarosi TC0-4
20/08/23ADainava Vs FZV0-2
17/08/23ABK Hacken Vs FZV5-0
13/08/23HFZV Vs Hegelmann Litauen4-0
10/08/23HFZV Vs BK Hacken1-3
06/08/23AŠiauliai Vs FZV0-0

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/23AŠiauliai Vs KŽ1-1
26/08/23ASuduva Marijampole Vs KŽ2-6
20/08/23AHegelmann Litauen Vs KŽ1-1
13/08/23HKŽ Vs FK Trakai3-2
06/08/23HKŽ Vs Džiugas Telšiai0-0
03/08/23HKŽ Vs Lech Poznan1-2
27/07/23ALech Poznan Vs KŽ3-1
22/07/23ADainava Vs KŽ1-1
18/07/23ABanga Vs KŽ1-1
07/07/23APanevėžys Vs KŽ3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW1.90
HomeLWLWW1.88
AwayDLWLW1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%58%58%
AVG goals2.903.082.71
Over 1.5 %74%73%75%
Over 2.5 %60%73%46%
Over 3.5 %34%46%21%
Scored1.842.041.62
Conceded1.061.041.08
BTTS42%46%38%
Clean Sheet44%46%42%
Corners9.098.0010.40
Cards3.553.833.20
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWD1.54
HomeLWLDW1.75
AwayDLDWD1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%46%35%
AVG goals2.622.502.73
Over 1.5 %76%67%85%
Over 2.5 %46%46%46%
Over 3.5 %24%29%19%
Scored1.501.541.46
Conceded1.120.961.27
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet34%42%27%
Corners7.7510.005.50
Cards3.503.50-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PanevėžysPanevėžys3687
72%
2.4
6414+50
2.2
67%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.80.4
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3675
64%
2.1
6728+39
2.6
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.90.8
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3659
42%
1.6
6140+21
2.8
78%
44%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.71.1
-
4Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3659
50%
1.6
6243+19
2.9
72%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.2
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
69%
36%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.31.0
-
6BangaBanga3636
28%
1.0
2252-30
2.1
58%
31%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.61.4
-
7Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3635
28%
1.0
2860-32
2.4
72%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.81.7
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3832
16%
0.8
2855-27
2.2
68%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.71.4
-
9DainavaDainava3631
19%
0.9
2540-15
1.8
56%
33%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai3625
14%
0.7
2662-36
2.4
64%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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