The match between FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win at 38 %. A draw sits at 30 % and an away win at 32 %, leaving no clear favourite beyond the home side. The expected total of goals is 2.5, with the most likely total being two goals at 27 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.2 % chance. FK Zalgiris Vilnius, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, averages 1.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded, while Kauno Žalgiris, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition. The suggested picks are Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.7 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.9 %), Under 5.5 (96.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.7 %), Under 4.5 (89.5 %), Away under 2.5 goals (88.6 %) and Home +2 handicap (86.2 %). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris win
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.33
1.71
1.07
1.50
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.87
1.86
1.43
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (15)
1.80
0.80
1.57
0.71
2.00
0.88
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.87
2.07
0.80
1.13
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.71
0.79
2.22
0.78
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
0.42
2.25
0.75
1.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.2%
Under 1.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.2%
Under 2.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.1%
Under 3.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.0%
No
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.8%
1-0
11.0%
0-1
10.0%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
7.2%
2-0
7.2%
0-2
6.2%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
10%
6.2%
2.2%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.2%
7.8%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
3
2.8%
3.0%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.8%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.20 points worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.17 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals scored per game (2.17 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 1.13 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Draw
67.8%
Avg Implied -
37%
31%
32%
covers FK Zalgiris Vilnius + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Kauno Žalgiris
68.7%
Avg Implied -
37%
31%
32%
covers FK Zalgiris Vilnius + Kauno Žalgiris
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris
63.5%
Avg Implied -
37%
31%
32%
covers Draw + Kauno Žalgiris
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5
Over
69.0%
Under
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5
Over
66.2%
Under
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5
Over
29.5%
Under
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FK Zalgiris Vilnius, so a minus line means FK Zalgiris Vilnius give that many goals of a start and Kauno Žalgiris receive them. At -1, FK Zalgiris Vilnius must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Zalgiris Vilnius win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Zalgiris Vilnius)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius -2
5.2%
Draw -2
10.8%
Kauno Žalgiris +2
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Zalgiris Vilnius)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius -1
15.9%
Draw -1
20.6%
Kauno Žalgiris +1
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Zalgiris Vilnius)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius +1
67.8%
Draw +1
18.9%
Kauno Žalgiris -1
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Zalgiris Vilnius)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius +2
86.8%
Draw +2
9.2%
Kauno Žalgiris -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.71
0.43
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
1.00
0.86
0.57
0.25
1.38
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.27
0.57
0.29
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.27
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.21
1.00
0.11
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.08
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
1.00
0.64
0.94
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.87
1.00
0.86
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.53
1.00
0.43
1.12
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
1.13
0.53
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.57
1.22
0.67
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yuri Kendysh25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde33%
Nassim Hnid25%
Joel Bopesu25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Buff33%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde67%
Paulius Golubickas25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's squad is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€7m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's attack is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's defence is €1m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€3m vs €4m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
Panevėžys
TransINVEST Vilnius
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
FK Trakai