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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys Result & Analysis

Date: 30/07/2023
Time: 18:00
Final 1-2
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Vs
38%
31%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Zalgiris Vilnius win✗ Miss
38.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys win✓ Hit
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W00D21W52W41W30W00D21W40W22DA·HEG07/06H·DAI11/06A·DŽI22/06A·KAU27/06A·BAN02/07H·FK 06/07H·STR11/07A·STR18/07H·SUD21/07H·GAL25/07
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.900.802.070.801.730.80
vs Stronger (1)2.002.002.002.00--
vs Similar (8)1.751.001.751.251.750.75
vs Weaker (21)1.950.672.200.501.730.82
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W40W10W10W30W22D10W20W01LH·HEG03/06A·DAI07/06H·DŽI11/06A·BAN25/06H·FK 30/06H·KAU07/07H·MIL13/07A·MIL20/07H·ŠIA24/07A·HAP27/07
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.471.870.471.600.47
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (24)1.750.501.830.501.670.50
vs Weaker (5)2.000.202.000.332.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.5%
Under 1.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.5%
Under 2.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.6%
Under 3.5
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.2%
No
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
12.1%
1-0
11.6%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
8.0%
2-0
7.7%
1-2 ✓
6.9%
0-2
5.7%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
01234
012%9.8%5.7%2.0%0.5%
112%15%6.9%2.4%0.6%
27.7%8.0%4.1%1.4%0.4%
33.1%3.2%1.6%0.6%0.1%
40.9%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Panevėžys
2.42
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.64
Šiauliai
1.64
Kauno Žalgiris
1.64
Banga
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
0.97
Dainava
0.86
Džiugas Telšiai
0.84
FK Trakai
0.69
Be1 NFA
0.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.33 points worse than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 2.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.86
Panevėžys
1.78
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.69
Šiauliai
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
0.78
Džiugas Telšiai
0.74
FK Trakai
0.72
Dainava
0.69
Banga
0.61
Be1 NFA
0.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.08 goals better than Panevėžys in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.78).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.39
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.78
Be1 NFA
1.00
Šiauliai
1.00
Dainava
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Banga
1.44
Džiugas Telšiai
1.45
Suduva Marijampole
1.67
FK Trakai
1.72
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.39 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 0.39).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D10W30W10W10W00D00D00D00DA·HEG07/06H·DAI11/06A·DŽI22/06A·KAU27/06A·BAN02/07H·FK 06/07H·STR11/07A·STR18/07H·SUD21/07H·GAL25/07
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.270.600.400.670.13
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (8)0.620.250.250.501.000.00
vs Weaker (21)0.670.290.800.400.550.18
Clean sheet %83% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W20W10W10W10W10W00D00D01LH·HEG03/06A·DAI07/06H·DŽI11/06A·BAN25/06H·FK 30/06H·KAU07/07H·MIL13/07A·MIL20/07H·ŠIA24/07A·HAP27/07
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.270.730.270.730.27
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.670.250.580.250.750.25
vs Weaker (5)1.200.201.330.331.000.00
Clean sheet %77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D11D22D31W20W00D21W40W22DA·HEG07/06H·DAI11/06A·DŽI22/06A·KAU27/06A·BAN02/07H·FK 06/07H·STR11/07A·STR18/07H·SUD21/07H·GAL25/07
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.531.470.401.070.67
vs Stronger (1)2.002.002.002.00--
vs Similar (8)1.120.751.500.750.750.75
vs Weaker (21)1.290.381.400.101.180.64
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D20W00D00D20W12L10W20W00DH·HEG03/06A·DAI07/06H·DŽI11/06A·BAN25/06H·FK 30/06H·KAU07/07H·MIL13/07A·MIL20/07H·ŠIA24/07A·HAP27/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.201.130.200.870.20
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (24)1.080.251.250.250.920.25
vs Weaker (5)0.800.000.670.001.000.00
Clean sheet %87% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards81.2%--------
Over 2.5 cards73.5%--------

🎽 13. Player market rates

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yuri Kendysh25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde33%
Nassim Hnid25%
Joel Bopesu25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Buff33%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde67%
Paulius Golubickas25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's squad is €1m more valuable than Panevėžys's (€7m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Panevėžys have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Panevėžys have a similar midfield value (both €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Panevėžys have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
FZV wins
2
Draws
1
PAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys · H/A from FZV
DateH/AGameScore
28/05/23HFZV Vs Panevėžys2-1
08/04/23APanevėžys Vs FZV0-0
09/11/22HFZV Vs Panevėžys0-1
19/10/22APanevėžys Vs FZV0-1
19/06/22APanevėžys Vs FZV0-2
05/04/22HFZV Vs Panevėžys0-0

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/23HFZV Vs Galatasaray2-2
21/07/23HFZV Vs Suduva Marijampole4-0
18/07/23AStruga Vs FZV1-2
11/07/23HFZV Vs Struga0-0
06/07/23HFZV Vs FK Trakai3-0
02/07/23ABanga Vs FZV1-4
27/06/23AKauno Žalgiris Vs FZV2-5
22/06/23ADžiugas Telšiai Vs FZV1-2
11/06/23HFZV Vs Dainava0-0
07/06/23AHegelmann Litauen Vs FZV0-1

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/07/23AHapoel Beer Sheva Vs PAN1-0
24/07/23HPAN Vs Šiauliai2-0
20/07/23AMilsami Orhei Vs PAN0-1
13/07/23HPAN Vs Milsami Orhei2-2
07/07/23HPAN Vs Kauno Žalgiris3-0
30/06/23HPAN Vs FK Trakai1-0
25/06/23ABanga Vs PAN0-1
11/06/23HPAN Vs Džiugas Telšiai4-0
07/06/23ADainava Vs PAN0-1
03/06/23HPAN Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWD2.04
HomeDWDWD2.08
AwayWWWWW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%64%60%
AVG goals2.722.962.48
Over 1.5 %72%68%76%
Over 2.5 %54%68%40%
Over 3.5 %32%44%20%
Scored1.882.081.68
Conceded0.840.880.80
BTTS44%48%40%
Clean Sheet44%44%44%
Corners8.009.206.50
Cards3.784.802.50
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL1.84
HomeWWWDW2.00
AwayLWWWL1.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%60%48%
AVG goals2.282.322.24
Over 1.5 %64%68%60%
Over 2.5 %46%52%40%
Over 3.5 %22%24%20%
Scored1.501.561.44
Conceded0.780.760.80
BTTS40%44%36%
Clean Sheet48%44%52%
Corners8.805.5011.00
Cards4.509.003.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PanevėžysPanevėžys3687
72%
2.4
6414+50
2.2
67%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.80.4
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3675
64%
2.1
6728+39
2.6
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.90.8
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3659
42%
1.6
6140+21
2.8
78%
44%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.71.1
-
4Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3659
50%
1.6
6243+19
2.9
72%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.2
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
69%
36%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.31.0
-
6BangaBanga3636
28%
1.0
2252-30
2.1
58%
31%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.61.4
-
7Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3635
28%
1.0
2860-32
2.4
72%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.81.7
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3832
16%
0.8
2855-27
2.2
68%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.71.4
-
9DainavaDainava3631
19%
0.9
2540-15
1.8
56%
33%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai3625
14%
0.7
2662-36
2.4
64%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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