This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.70
1.29
0.71
1.06
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.29
0.86
1.50
0.90
1.09
0.82
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.14
0.67
0.00
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.6%
Under 1.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.2%
Under 2.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.3%
No
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.9%
1-0
10.1%
1-1
9.9%
2-1 ✓
9.7%
3-0
8.5%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
6.0%
4-0
4.6%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
3.3%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
1
10%
9.9%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.5%
7.0%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
4.6%
3.8%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hegelmann Litauen
2.60
Kauno Žalgiris
2.25
Džiugas Telšiai
2.25
Atmosfera
2.25
Banga
2.20
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Jonava
2.00
Ekranas
2.00
Babrungas
2.00
Minija
2.00
Nemunas
2.00
Viltis Vilnius
2.00
FKS Ukmergė
2.00
Alternatyvus FK
2.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
BFA
1.50
Be1 NFA
1.50
Euforija
1.50
Sendvaris
1.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
1.50
Dembava
1.50
VGTU Vilkai
1.50
Šiauliai
1.33
Nevėžis
1.33
Klaipėdos FM
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Panevėžys
0.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.00
Dainava
0.00
Sveikata
0.00
Venta
0.00
Granitas
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Ave.Ko
0.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Nadruvis
0.00
Futboliukas Vilnius
0.00
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas
0.00
Utenis Utena
0.00
Tera
0.00
Fortūna Kaunas
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Geležinis Vilkas
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Sviedinys Vilnius
0.00
Katastrofa Vilnius
0.00
TOP Kickers
0.00
Baltai
0.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 1.50 points better than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
VGTU Vilkai
5.50
Ekranas
5.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
4.67
FKS Ukmergė
4.33
Tauras
4.00
Dembava
4.00
Alternatyvus FK
4.00
Kauno Žalgiris
3.75
Babrungas
3.67
Klaipėdos FM
3.67
FK Trakai
3.00
Jonava
3.00
Euforija
3.00
Sendvaris
3.00
TOP Kickers
3.00
Banga
2.60
Džiugas Telšiai
2.50
Garliava
2.50
Atmosfera
2.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Hegelmann Litauen
2.20
Šiauliai
2.00
BFA
2.00
Minija
2.00
Nemunas
1.67
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Viltis Vilnius
1.50
Panevėžys
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.00
Nevėžis
1.00
Sveikata
1.00
Šilutė
1.00
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas
1.00
Fortūna Kaunas
1.00
Geležinis Vilkas
1.00
Trivartis Vilnius
1.00
Sviedinys Vilnius
1.00
Dainava
0.00
Venta
0.00
Granitas
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Ave.Ko
0.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Nadruvis
0.00
Futboliukas Vilnius
0.00
Utenis Utena
0.00
Tera
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Katastrofa Vilnius
0.00
Baltai
0.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.50 goals better than Panevėžys in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.50
Minija
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.50
Alternatyvus FK
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen
0.60
Ekranas
0.67
Banga
0.80
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Viltis Vilnius
1.00
VGTU Vilkai
1.00
Atmosfera
1.25
Šiauliai
1.33
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.33
Jonava
1.33
FKS Ukmergė
1.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.50
Klaipėdos FM
1.67
Panevėžys
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Tauras
2.00
Dainava
2.00
Babrungas
2.00
Granitas
2.00
Šilutė
2.00
Fortūna Kaunas
2.00
Sviedinys Vilnius
2.00
Nevėžis
2.33
Garliava
2.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
3.00
BFA
3.00
Sveikata
3.00
Futboliukas Vilnius
3.00
Sendvaris
3.00
Nemunas
3.00
Baltai
3.00
Dembava
3.50
Venta
4.00
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas
4.00
Saned Joniškis
5.00
Širvėna Biržai
5.00
Tera
5.00
Geležinis Vilkas
5.00
TOP Kickers
5.00
Euforija
5.50
Utenis Utena
7.00
Ave.Ko
8.00
Utenos Utena
9.00
Trivartis Vilnius
10.00
Katastrofa Vilnius
10.00
Nadruvis
13.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.50 goals better than Panevėžys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Draw✓ Hit
88.0%
Avg Implied -
67%
21%
12%
covers FK Zalgiris Vilnius + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Panevėžys✓ Hit
79.3%
Avg Implied -
67%
21%
12%
covers FK Zalgiris Vilnius + Panevėžys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Panevėžys✗ Miss
32.8%
Avg Implied -
67%
21%
12%
covers Draw + Panevėžys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.4%
Under
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
63.5%
Under
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
55.9%
Under
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FK Zalgiris Vilnius, so a minus line means FK Zalgiris Vilnius give that many goals of a start and Panevėžys receive them. At -1, FK Zalgiris Vilnius must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Zalgiris Vilnius win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap +1 (FK Zalgiris Vilnius)Actual: FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius +1
88.0%
Draw +1
8.2%
Panevėžys -1
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Zalgiris Vilnius)Actual: FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius +2
96.2%
Draw +2
3.0%
Panevėžys -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
1.06
0.38
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.55
1.00
0.50
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (16)
1.06
0.25
1.22
0.22
0.86
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.27
0.43
0.14
0.38
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.29
0.60
0.20
0.45
0.36
vs Weaker (7)
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.90
0.94
1.06
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.45
1.27
0.50
1.17
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (16)
1.38
0.56
1.33
0.78
1.43
0.29
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.86
0.57
0.69
0.31
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.57
0.90
0.70
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yuri Kendysh25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde33%
Nassim Hnid25%
Joel Bopesu25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Buff33%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde67%
Paulius Golubickas25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
MIN (3)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's squad is €1m more valuable than Panevėžys's (€7m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Panevėžys have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Panevėžys have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Panevėžys have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hegelmann Litauen
Kauno Žalgiris
Dainava
Banga
Suduva Marijampole
Šiauliai
Džiugas Telšiai
TransINVEST Vilnius
Be1 NFA