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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole Result & Analysis

Date: 23/06/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 4-0
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Vs
63%
22%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Zalgiris Vilnius win✓ Hit
62.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole win✗ Miss
14.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D22D21W00D10W21W12L31W21W40WA·SUD28/04H·BAN01/05H·PAN06/05A·HEG12/05H·KAU19/05A·ŠIA26/05A·TRA30/05A·TRA02/06H·PAN16/06A·DŽI19/06
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.072.071.071.801.07
vs Stronger (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
vs Similar (13)1.151.151.331.171.001.14
vs Weaker (16)2.690.882.561.002.860.71
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L11D01L10W11D01L10W23L22DH·FK 28/04A·PAN02/05A·MIN07/05H·DŽI11/05A·DAI17/05A·ŠIA21/05H·TRA24/05H·BAN01/06A·HEG15/06H·KAU19/06
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.230.601.271.001.20
vs Stronger (6)1.502.671.252.752.002.50
vs Similar (23)0.610.870.360.730.831.00
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%014%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.1%
Under 2.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.5%
No
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.0%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.9%
3-0
7.5%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
4.4%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals ↓
Suduva Marijampole goals →
01234
06.3%3.8%2.1%0.6%0.1%
19.9%11%4.4%1.3%0.3%
211%9.9%4.4%1.3%0.3%
37.5%6.7%3.0%0.9%0.2%
43.8%3.4%1.5%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (down), columns = Suduva Marijampole goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.19
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris
1.50
Dainava
1.25
Banga
1.19
Šiauliai
1.17
Džiugas Telšiai
1.17
Panevėžys
1.14
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.06
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 1.09 points better than Suduva Marijampole in terms of average points per game (2.19 vs 1.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.67
Kauno Žalgiris
1.19
Šiauliai
1.08
Banga
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.97
Dainava
0.94
Panevėžys
0.94
Džiugas Telšiai
0.92
Suduva Marijampole
0.89
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 1.22 goals better than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 0.89).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.86
Be1 NFA
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.08
Dainava
1.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Panevėžys
1.11
Banga
1.28
Džiugas Telšiai
1.33
Šiauliai
1.39
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.39
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.22 goals better than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W10W00D00D11D00D10W10W30WA·SUD28/04H·BAN01/05H·PAN06/05A·HEG12/05H·KAU19/05A·ŠIA26/05A·TRA30/05A·TRA02/06H·PAN16/06A·DŽI19/06
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.331.000.200.800.47
vs Stronger (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (13)0.460.230.670.170.290.29
vs Weaker (16)1.310.311.220.221.430.43
Clean sheet %70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L00D00D11D01L00D21W11DH·FK 28/04A·PAN02/05A·MIN07/05H·DŽI11/05A·DAI17/05A·ŠIA21/05H·TRA24/05H·BAN01/06A·HEG15/06H·KAU19/06
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.570.200.470.470.67
vs Stronger (6)0.831.000.750.751.001.50
vs Similar (23)0.220.430.000.360.420.50
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D12L11D00D10W10W12L21W11D10WA·SUD28/04H·BAN01/05H·PAN06/05A·HEG12/05H·KAU19/05A·ŠIA26/05A·TRA30/05A·TRA02/06H·PAN16/06A·DŽI19/06
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.731.070.871.000.60
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (13)0.690.920.671.000.710.86
vs Weaker (16)1.380.561.330.781.430.29
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L10W01L10W00D00D10W02L11DH·FK 28/04A·PAN02/05A·MIN07/05H·DŽI11/05A·DAI17/05A·ŠIA21/05H·TRA24/05H·BAN01/06A·HEG15/06H·KAU19/06
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.670.400.800.530.53
vs Stronger (6)0.671.670.502.001.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.390.430.360.360.420.50
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.0%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yuri Kendysh25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde33%
Nassim Hnid25%
Joel Bopesu25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Buff33%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde67%
Paulius Golubickas25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's squad is €1m more valuable than Suduva Marijampole's (€7m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Suduva Marijampole have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's midfield is €1m more valuable than Suduva Marijampole's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Suduva Marijampole have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
FZV wins
2
Draws
1
SM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole · H/A from FZV
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs FZV1-1
10/03/24HFZV Vs Suduva Marijampole3-3
30/09/23ASuduva Marijampole Vs FZV0-2
21/07/23HFZV Vs Suduva Marijampole4-0
20/05/23ASuduva Marijampole Vs FZV2-1
01/04/23HFZV Vs Suduva Marijampole4-0
06/11/22ASuduva Marijampole Vs FZV1-2
27/09/22HFZV Vs Suduva Marijampole1-0

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/06/24ADžiugas Telšiai Vs FZV0-4
16/06/24HFZV Vs Panevėžys2-1
02/06/24ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs FZV1-3
30/05/24ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs FZV2-1
26/05/24AŠiauliai Vs FZV1-2
19/05/24HFZV Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-0
12/05/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs FZV0-0
06/05/24HFZV Vs Panevėžys2-1
01/05/24HFZV Vs Banga2-2
28/04/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs FZV1-1

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/06/24HSM Vs Kauno Žalgiris2-2
15/06/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM3-2
01/06/24HSM Vs Banga1-0
24/05/24HSM Vs TransINVEST Vilnius0-1
21/05/24AŠiauliai Vs SM1-1
17/05/24ADainava Vs SM0-1
11/05/24HSM Vs Džiugas Telšiai0-1
07/05/24AMinija Vs SM1-1
02/05/24APanevėžys Vs SM1-0
28/04/24HSM Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.94
HomeWDWWW1.88
AwayDWLWW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%54%62%
AVG goals3.003.082.92
Over 1.5 %78%81%75%
Over 2.5 %64%73%54%
Over 3.5 %40%50%29%
Scored1.861.921.79
Conceded1.141.151.12
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet38%42%33%
Corners9.128.509.75
Cards3.503.503.50
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLD1.02
HomeDLLWD1.13
AwayLDWDL0.93
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%30%22%
AVG goals2.101.742.41
Over 1.5 %56%43%67%
Over 2.5 %30%17%41%
Over 3.5 %14%9%19%
Scored0.780.650.89
Conceded1.321.091.52
BTTS32%17%44%
Clean Sheet30%39%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3679
67%
2.2
7631+45
3.0
78%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.10.9
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
53%
1.9
6040+20
2.8
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.1
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3654
42%
1.5
4340+3
2.3
61%
44%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.21.1
-
4DainavaDainava3645
33%
1.2
3439-5
2.0
53%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
5BangaBanga3643
28%
1.2
3746-9
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.01.3
-
6Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3842
26%
1.1
3441-7
2.0
47%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.91.1
-
7ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3642
28%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
67%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.11.4
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3642
31%
1.2
3348-15
2.2
61%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.91.3
-
9PanevėžysPanevėžys3641
25%
1.1
3440-6
2.1
56%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2220.91.1
-
10TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3638
31%
1.1
3550-15
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.4
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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