FK Zalgiris Vilnius are set to defend a tight, low-scoring game, with the model projecting a 2.1 average goal total. The odds favour a home win at 47%, a draw at 31%, and an away win at 22%. The most likely outcome is a 1-0 victory for the home side, with a 14.2% chance. The predicted total of 2 goals is the most probable total, with a 28% probability. Zalgiris, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded, while TransINVEST Vilnius, on the road, average 3.0 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded. The model’s selection is Under 3.5, with an 82.9% probability. Both teams are coming off wins, and the last match for each was a clean-sheet victory.
Results analysis
FK Zalgiris Vilnius ended a five-match run that had seen them win, lose, lose, lose, and win, with a 3-1 victory over TransINVEST Vilnius, extending their recent form. The model’s favourite was a home win at 47 percent, and the prediction proved correct as the final score of 3-1 confirmed the home triumph. The pre-match favourite also carried an 82.9 percent probability for Under 3.5 goals, but that selection missed. The model’s call for a home win was right, while the Under 3.5 pick fell short, illustrating a tough day for the selections despite their strong probabilities.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win✓ Hit
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius win✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.00
1.21
0.57
1.75
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.42
1.33
0.83
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.56
0.72
1.12
0.38
1.90
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TransINVEST Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.87
0.70
2.21
0.86
3.44
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
2.14
0.43
1.00
0.67
3.00
0.25
vs Weaker (23)
3.09
0.78
2.55
0.91
3.58
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.6%
Under 1.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.4%
Under 2.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
17.1%
Under 3.5
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.4%
No
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.2%
1-1
14.0%
0-0
12.9%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
8.4%
0-1
8.3%
1-2
5.2%
3-0
4.5%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals ↓
TransINVEST Vilnius goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
8.3%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
1
14%
14%
5.2%
1.4%
0.3%
2
10%
8.4%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
4.5%
3.7%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.5%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (down), columns = TransINVEST Vilnius goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.60
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.40
Banga
1.67
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.17
Panevėžys
0.83
Hegelmann Litauen
0.71
Šiauliai
0.43
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 1.02 points better than TransINVEST Vilnius in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.60
Kauno Žalgiris
2.50
Suduva Marijampole
2.40
Banga
1.67
Hegelmann Litauen
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00
Šiauliai
0.71
Panevėžys
0.67
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 1.48 goals better than TransINVEST Vilnius in terms of goals scored per game (2.60 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Suduva Marijampole
0.20
Kauno Žalgiris
0.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.20
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
Panevėžys
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.50
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.71
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.05 goals better than TransINVEST Vilnius in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.50
0.36
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.50
1.08
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.67
vs Weaker (18)
0.72
0.33
0.50
0.25
0.90
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TransINVEST Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.43
1.62
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.14
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.52
0.39
1.18
0.45
1.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.37
0.71
0.21
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.33
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.39
0.62
0.12
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TransINVEST Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.37
1.21
0.43
1.81
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.43
0.29
0.67
0.33
2.00
0.25
vs Weaker (23)
1.57
0.39
1.36
0.45
1.75
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (25)
€9m
FZV (23)
€6m
PAN (21)
€5m
HL (18)
€4m
BAN (20)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
FZV (8)
€2m
PAN (7)
€2m
HL (5)
€1m
BAN (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (6)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
HL (6)
€1m
PAN (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (10)
€4m
FZV (9)
€3m
PAN (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 14. Games History
H2H record
5 previous meetings
4
FZV wins
0
Draws
1
TV wins
Head-to-head
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs TransINVEST Vilnius · H/A from FZV
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
Kauno Žalgiris
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
Panevėžys
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
FK Trakai