Fleetwood Town's recent form has been impressive, unbeaten in their last 5 matches including a 1-0 win over Chesterfield. This momentum should serve them well as they host Gillingham, who are coming off a 0-3 defeat to Walsall. Fleetwood Town are the favourite to win, with a 44% probability, closely followed by a draw at 28% and Gillingham's away win at 27%.
The expected total goals are 2.6, with 2 being the most likely total goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability. Fleetwood Town have been scoring an average of 1.12 goals at home, while conceding 1.0, against similar opponents. Gillingham, on the other hand, have scored 1.0 goals away from home, but conceded 1.73 against similar opponents.
The model's selection is an Over 1.5 goals, with a 74.2% probability, and Under 3.5 goals, with a 74.0% probability. Fleetwood Town have a 44% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 27% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Fleetwood Town, failed to deliver as the game ended 0-0, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. The match was a low-scoring affair, with both sides keeping clean sheets, and the final score of 0-0 matched the actual result. The model had given Fleetwood a 66 % chance of victory, but the outcome was a stalemate. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.5 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8 %, Under 6.5 at 98.3 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.1 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.3 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.6 %, Under 5.5 at 95.2 %, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.3 %. The game’s quiet nature matched the model’s expectation of a low-total outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fleetwood Town win✗ Miss
65.9%
Avg Implied 48.6% · @ 1.91
Edge
+17.2%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.95
Dafabet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Unibet
1.92
Draw✓ Hit
21.3%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.46
Edge
-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.78
Marathonbet
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Dafabet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Gillingham win✗ Miss
12.9%
Avg Implied 24.6% · @ 3.77
Edge
-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Dafabet
3.95
Bet365
3.90
10Bet
3.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fleetwood Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.07
1.14
1.36
0.94
0.81
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
1.12
1.20
1.50
0.93
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Gillingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.93
1.06
2.12
0.71
1.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.50
0.50
4.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.00
1.85
1.14
1.86
0.83
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.5%
@ 1.28+8.1%
Under 1.5
19.5%
@ 3.37-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.58
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
888Sport
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.9%
@ 1.92+8.1%
Under 2.5
43.1%
@ 1.83-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.95
SBO
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.5%
@ 3.31+6.4%
Under 3.5
65.5%
@ 1.29-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.1%
@ 1.77-1.2%
No
48.9%
@ 1.94+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.76
No
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.96
William Hil
1.95
888Sport
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.6%@ 8.65+6.4%
1-1
10.2%@ 6.20+3.0%
1-0
10.0%@ 6.69+3.4%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.79+4.1%
3-0
8.2%@ 15.23+5.3%
3-1
6.9%@ 14.31+3.8%
0-0 ✓
6.1%@ 9.44+1.4%
4-0
4.3%@ 35.89+3.1%
Fleetwood Town goals ↓
Gillingham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
3.4%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
1
10%
10%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.8%
4.1%
1.2%
0.2%
3
8.2%
6.9%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
4.3%
3.7%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fleetwood Town goals (down), columns = Gillingham goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Fleetwood Town is 0.17 points better than Gillingham in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Fleetwood Town is 0.09 goals better than Gillingham in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Fleetwood Town is 0.30 goals better than Gillingham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Fleetwood Town is 2.4 percentage points better than Gillingham in terms of average possession (50% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fleetwood Town
For 5.3 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 9.3 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gillingham
For 4.3 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 10.2 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fleetwood Town
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.9
10.5
3.7
3.1
4.3
22.8
22.7
22.8
vs Stronger (10)
10.8
11.0
10.6
2.9
2.4
3.4
21.9
20.8
22.8
vs Similar (40)
10.1
9.6
10.4
3.9
3.3
4.5
23.0
23.2
22.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
57%
56%
54%
40%
68%
60%
65%
56%
% under line
44%
43%
44%
46%
60%
32%
40%
35%
44%
This opponent (Gillingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.4
9.9
3.9
3.8
3.9
23.8
23.3
24.4
vs Stronger (7)
8.0
6.8
9.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
23.9
23.2
24.7
vs Similar (43)
9.9
9.9
9.9
3.9
3.8
3.9
23.8
23.3
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
42%
48%
58%
54%
62%
61%
54%
70%
% under line
55%
58%
52%
42%
46%
38%
39%
46%
30%
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.1
Rochdale
11.3
Swindon
11.2
York
11.0
Port Vale
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Walsall
10.4
Chesterfield
10.4
Exeter
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.8
Accrington
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Rotherham
9.6
Newport County
9.6
Gillingham
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Crewe
9.4
Colchester
9.3
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.3
Crawley Town
4.3
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Oldham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
York
3.9
Crewe
3.9
Newport County
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Tranmere
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Exeter
3.4
Rochdale
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.5
Crawley Town
25.4
Oldham
25.1
Colchester
24.8
Salford
24.6
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Barnet
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Grimsby
23.6
Newport County
23.4
Rochdale
23.3
Fleetwood Town
23.0
Shrewsbury
22.7
Tranmere
22.6
Cheltenham
22.5
Walsall
22.4
Accrington
22.4
Chesterfield
22.1
Northampton
21.9
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.5
Swindon
20.7
York
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.7%
@ 1.81+1.6%
Under 9.5
47.3%
@ 1.89-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Unibet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Superbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.4%
Under 3.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
62.4%
Under 21.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fleetwood Town or Draw✓ Hit
72.7%
Avg Implied 75.3% · @ 1.24
Edge
-2.6%
66%
21%
13%
covers Fleetwood Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.28
BetVictor
1.25
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Fleetwood Town or Gillingham✗ Miss
71.5%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.27
Edge
-2.0%
66%
21%
13%
covers Fleetwood Town + Gillingham
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Draw or Gillingham✓ Hit
55.8%
Avg Implied 51.2% · @ 1.82
Edge
+4.6%
66%
21%
13%
covers Draw + Gillingham
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
10Bet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.84
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fleetwood Town over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
77.0%
@ 1.19-1.0%
Under
23.0%
@ 4.22+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.80
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.45
BetVictor
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Fleetwood Town over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.3%
@ 1.97-4.0%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.77+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Betano
1.98
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Fleetwood Town over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.4%
@ 4.13-4.1%
Under
81.6%
@ 1.20+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.26
888Sport
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Fleetwood Town over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 9.16-4.1%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.05+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
9.10
Betfair
9.00
Betano
7.70
Under
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Gillingham over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
67.1%
@ 1.44+2.8%
Under
32.9%
@ 2.59-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.45
BetVictor
1.45
Under
Pinnacle
2.74
888Sport
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
Gillingham over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.5%
@ 3.21+1.5%
Under
69.5%
@ 1.31-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Under
888Sport
1.33
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Gillingham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.2%
@ 8.54-0.8%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.05+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.10
Marathonbet
9.10
Betfair
9.00
888Sport
8.50
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Gillingham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 23.50-1.5%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
888Sport
29.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.00
Under
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fleetwood Town, so a minus line means Fleetwood Town give that many goals of a start and Gillingham receive them. At -1, Fleetwood Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fleetwood Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fleetwood Town)Actual: Gillingham
Fleetwood Town -2
8.7%
@ 7.47-3.3%
Draw -2
13.7%
@ 5.42-2.9%
Gillingham +2
77.6%
@ 1.25+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Bet365
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Draw
Marathonbet
5.70
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Superbet
5.25
Away
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Handicap -1 (Fleetwood Town)Actual: Gillingham
Fleetwood Town -1
22.4%
@ 3.44-3.7%
Draw -1
21.8%
@ 3.57-3.3%
Gillingham +1
55.8%
@ 1.84+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.42
10Bet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
10Bet
3.50
Away
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Handicap +1 (Fleetwood Town)Actual: Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town +1
72.7%
@ 1.24-0.1%
Draw +1
16.2%
@ 5.38-0.5%
Gillingham -1
11.2%
@ 8.53+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.25
10Bet
5.25
Away
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.50
Marathonbet
8.90
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Handicap +2 (Fleetwood Town)Actual: Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town +2
88.8%
@ 1.05+0.7%
Draw +2
7.8%
@ 11.67-0.1%
Gillingham -2
3.4%
@ 23.00-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
10.00
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
20.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fleetwood Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.40
0.29
0.50
0.56
0.31
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.40
0.20
0.50
0.53
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Gillingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.73
0.44
0.75
0.21
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.57
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
68.3%
@ 1.37+0.5%
Under 0.5
31.7%
@ 2.88-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.03
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.95
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.9%
@ 2.77-0.6%
Under 1.5
67.1%
@ 1.39+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.90
Pinnacle
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.80
10Bet
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.6%
@ 7.16-1.4%
Under 2.5
88.4%
@ 1.07+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.50
William Hil
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fleetwood Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
51.5%
@ 1.83+0.8%
Under
48.5%
@ 1.88-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.84
Unibet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Fleetwood Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.6%
@ 5.24-1.0%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.13+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Betano
5.10
Superbet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Fleetwood Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 14.00-3.4%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
10Bet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Gillingham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.2%
@ 2.48-2.3%
Under
64.8%
@ 1.48+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.59
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.43
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Gillingham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 9.13-2.9%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.04+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Superbet
8.70
10Bet
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Gillingham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 36.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
36.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fleetwood Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.86
0.86
0.38
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.72
1.00
1.00
0.40
0.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Gillingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.20
0.62
1.38
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
1.23
0.64
1.29
0.58
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
77.3%
Under 0.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.5%
Under 1.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.7%
Under 2.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fleetwood Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
59.5%
Under
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fleetwood Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fleetwood Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gillingham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.4%
Under
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gillingham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gillingham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.03
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.8%
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.4%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
888Sport
1.10
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.4%
1.13
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
81.6%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.5%
1.28
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+8.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
77.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.0%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
-1.0%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
72.7%
1.24
Betano
1.28
BetVictor
1.25
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
72.7%
1.24
Unibet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.5%
1.27
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
-2.0%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.0%
1.33
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.34
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Betano
1.30
+1.8%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fleetwood Town
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ched Evans40%
Will Davies40%
Ronan Coughlan33%
F. Potter20%
J. Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
S. Rooney0%
L. McCann0%
M. Helm0%
Rhys Bennett0%
A. Murphy0%
H. Neal0%
A. Loupalo-Bi0%
Crispin McLean0%
R. Cirino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rhys Bennett50%
F. Potter40%
Andy Cannon33%
S. Rooney20%
L. McCann20%
H. Neal20%
Will Davies20%
J. Lynch0%
Danny Andrew0%
Ched Evans0%
Ronan Coughlan0%
M. Helm0%
A. Murphy0%
A. Loupalo-Bi0%
Crispin McLean0%
R. Cirino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ronan Coughlan33%
Ched Evans20%
S. Rooney20%
M. Helm20%
F. Potter20%
J. Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
L. McCann0%
Rhys Bennett0%
A. Murphy0%
H. Neal0%
A. Loupalo-Bi0%
Will Davies0%
Crispin McLean0%
R. Cirino0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ched Evans40%
M. Helm40%
Will Davies20%
J. Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
S. Rooney0%
L. McCann0%
Ronan Coughlan0%
Rhys Bennett0%
A. Murphy0%
H. Neal0%
A. Loupalo-Bi0%
F. Potter0%
Crispin McLean0%
R. Cirino0%
Gillingham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Conor McManus25%
J. Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Nick Freeman0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
Will Goodwin0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Brophy25%
Robbie McKenzie25%
Omar Beckles25%
Will Goodwin25%
Nick Freeman0%
Ronan Hale0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nick Freeman25%
J. Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
Will Goodwin0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Will Goodwin25%
J. Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Nick Freeman0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Fleetwood Town and Gillingham have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Fleetwood Town and Gillingham have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Fleetwood Town and Gillingham have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Fleetwood Town and Gillingham have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale