Fleetwood Town are the clear favourites, with a 42% chance of victory, 29% for a draw and 29% for Shrewsbury to win. The model projects an average of 2.5 goals, most likely a 2-goal total with a 27% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.9% probability. Fleetwood’s home form shows they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded against similar opposition, while Shrewsbury, on the road, average only 0.6 scored and 1.8 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls (92.1%), Under 5.5 cards (91.0%), Under 23.5 fouls (84.0%), Under 4.5 cards (80.5%), Over 8.5 corners (77.3% miss), Under 3.5 (75.7%), Over 1.5 (72.6%) and Under 21.5 fouls (71.3%). The match is poised for a Fleetwood win, but the data also hints at a tight 1-1 outcome.
Results analysis
The upset was swift: Fleetwood Town, the pre-match favourite with a 42% chance of victory, fell to a 0-3 defeat, leaving the model’s call wrong. The win extended Fleetwood’s unbeaten run in the last five matches, yet the result was a stark reversal. Shrewsbury, coming off a 0-3 loss, capitalised to secure the away win. The model’s selections largely held: Under 25.5 fouls hit at 92.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 91.0%, Under 23.5 fouls at 84.0%, Under 4.5 cards at 80.5%, Under 3.5 at 75.7%, Over 1.5 at 72.6%, and Under 21.5 fouls at 71.3%. Only Over 8.5 corners missed, recorded at 77.3%. The predicted total of 2.5 goals was off, with the actual tally at three.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fleetwood Town winâś— Miss
42.2%
Avg Implied 33.4% · @ 2.82
Edge
+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied 31.3% · @ 3.01
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury winâś“ Hit
28.7%
Avg Implied 35.3% · @ 2.67
Edge
-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Fleetwood Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.77
1.57
1.43
1.38
2.06
vs Stronger (15)
1.40
1.93
1.71
1.71
1.12
2.12
vs Similar (12)
1.75
1.83
1.60
1.20
1.86
2.29
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.47
1.19
1.25
0.71
1.71
vs Stronger (18)
0.78
1.50
0.78
1.33
0.78
1.67
vs Similar (12)
1.25
1.42
1.71
1.14
0.60
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.6%
Under 1.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.7%
@ 2.41+6.6%
Under 2.5
54.3%
@ 1.55-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.3%
Under 3.5
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.7%
No
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
10.1%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
7.9%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.0%
Fleetwood Town goals ↓
Shrewsbury goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
7.8%
5.0%
1.9%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
7.0%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.9%
8.8%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.7%
4.1%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fleetwood Town goals (down), columns = Shrewsbury goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Wigan
2.00
Rotherham
1.96
Milton Keynes Dons
1.93
Sheffield Weds
1.85
Sunderland
1.83
Wycombe
1.80
Plymouth
1.74
Oxford
1.65
Portsmouth
1.59
Bolton
1.59
Ipswich
1.52
Accrington
1.33
Charlton
1.28
Cambridge
1.26
Cheltenham
1.22
Burton
1.15
Lincoln
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.09
Morecambe
0.91
Gillingham
0.87
Fleetwood Town
0.87
Doncaster
0.83
AFC Wimbledon
0.80
Crewe
0.63
Fleetwood Town is 0.22 points worse than Shrewsbury in terms of average points per game (0.87 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Oxford
1.78
Wigan
1.78
Sunderland
1.72
Sheffield Weds
1.70
Milton Keynes Dons
1.70
Wycombe
1.63
Bolton
1.61
Rotherham
1.52
Portsmouth
1.48
Plymouth
1.48
Ipswich
1.46
Cheltenham
1.43
Fleetwood Town
1.35
Accrington
1.33
Morecambe
1.24
Cambridge
1.22
Lincoln
1.20
Charlton
1.20
Burton
1.11
AFC Wimbledon
1.07
Shrewsbury
1.02
Crewe
0.80
Doncaster
0.80
Gillingham
0.76
Fleetwood Town is 0.33 goals better than Shrewsbury in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.02).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rotherham
0.72
Wigan
0.96
Milton Keynes Dons
0.96
Ipswich
1.00
Plymouth
1.04
Sheffield Weds
1.09
Portsmouth
1.11
Shrewsbury
1.11
Wycombe
1.11
Sunderland
1.15
Bolton
1.24
Oxford
1.28
Charlton
1.28
Lincoln
1.37
Burton
1.46
Gillingham
1.50
Cambridge
1.61
AFC Wimbledon
1.63
Accrington
1.74
Cheltenham
1.74
Doncaster
1.78
Fleetwood Town
1.78
Crewe
1.80
Morecambe
1.91
Fleetwood Town is 0.67 goals worse than Shrewsbury in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ipswich
59%
Milton Keynes Dons
59%
Bolton
57%
Sunderland
56%
Oxford
55%
Wigan
55%
Sheffield Weds
54%
Lincoln
53%
Plymouth
52%
Portsmouth
52%
Crewe
52%
Rotherham
51%
Charlton
50%
Accrington
50%
Cheltenham
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Burton
46%
Wycombe
45%
Doncaster
45%
Cambridge
44%
Morecambe
43%
Shrewsbury
43%
Gillingham
38%
Fleetwood Town is 3.9 percentage points better than Shrewsbury in terms of average possession (47% vs 43%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fleetwood Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.36
0.57
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
0.87
0.43
0.57
0.75
1.12
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.75
0.40
0.60
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.38
0.75
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (18)
0.28
0.83
0.22
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.00
0.57
0.86
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fleetwood Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fleetwood Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fleetwood Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fleetwood Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
1.21
0.86
0.81
1.12
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
1.07
1.29
1.14
0.38
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.33
1.08
1.20
0.60
1.43
1.43
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.81
0.50
0.29
0.64
vs Stronger (18)
0.50
0.67
0.56
0.67
0.44
0.67
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.42
1.14
0.29
0.00
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fleetwood Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fleetwood Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fleetwood Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 3.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fleetwood Town · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ched Evans50%
Will Davies50%
Finley Potter25%
Jay Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
Shaun Rooney0%
Lewis McCann0%
Mark Helm0%
Rhys Bennett0%
Harrison Neal0%
Crispin McLean0%
Raffaele Cirino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rhys Bennett50%
Finley Potter50%
Andy Cannon33%
Shaun Rooney25%
Lewis McCann25%
Will Davies25%
Jay Lynch0%
Danny Andrew0%
Ched Evans0%
Mark Helm0%
Harrison Neal0%
Crispin McLean0%
Raffaele Cirino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ched Evans25%
Mark Helm25%
Finley Potter25%
Jay Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
Shaun Rooney0%
Lewis McCann0%
Rhys Bennett0%
Harrison Neal0%
Will Davies0%
Crispin McLean0%
Raffaele Cirino0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ched Evans50%
Mark Helm25%
Jay Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
Shaun Rooney0%
Lewis McCann0%
Rhys Bennett0%
Harrison Neal0%
Finley Potter0%
Will Davies0%
Crispin McLean0%
Raffaele Cirino0%
Shrewsbury · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Davison50%
William Boyle25%
George Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Josh Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
Will Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Joe Gbode0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arkell Jude-Boyd67%
George Lloyd25%
Kevin Berkoe25%
Jay Turner-Cooke25%
Joe Gbode25%
William Boyle0%
Thomas Sang0%
Josh Ruffels0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
Will Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Will Gray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
William Boyle0%
George Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Josh Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
Will Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Joe Gbode0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Isaac Fletcher25%
Joe Gbode25%
William Boyle0%
George Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Josh Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
Will Brook0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUN (30)
€392m
IPS (31)
€280m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
WYC (24)
€10m
WIG (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
MOR (1)
€0m
Fleetwood Town and Shrewsbury have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
AW (8)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Fleetwood Town and Shrewsbury have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUN (6)
€110m
IPS (7)
€66m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
Fleetwood Town and Shrewsbury have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUN (15)
€125m
IPS (13)
€85m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
MOR (0)
€0m
Fleetwood Town and Shrewsbury have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League One 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Wigan
Rotherham
Milton Keynes Dons
Sheffield Weds
Sunderland
Wycombe
Plymouth
Oxford
Bolton
Portsmouth
Ipswich
Accrington
Charlton
Cambridge
Cheltenham
Burton
Lincoln
Morecambe
Gillingham
Doncaster
AFC Wimbledon
Crewe