Fleetwood Town are the clear favourites, with a 53% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 19% chance of a Shrewsbury win. The model expects 2.4 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.2% probability. Fleetwood, playing at home against a side of similar strength, average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Shrewsbury, on the road, average only 0.46 goals scored and 1.46 conceded. The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 goals 99.7%; Away under 2.5 HT goals99.2%; Away under 3.5 goals98.9% with a 4% edge; Under 6.5 goals 98.9% with a 3% edge; Away under 2.5 2H goals98.2% with a 3% edge; Home under 2.5 HT goals96.9% with a 4% edge; Under 5.5 goals 96.5% with a 3% edge; and Away under 2.5 goals94.6% with a 5% edge. Fleetwood’s unbeaten run of five games, including a 1-1 draw with Oldham, contrasts with Shrewsbury’s recent loss, 0-3 to Rochdale.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fleetwood Town win
51.3%
Avg Implied 48.7% · @ 1.91
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.97
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
William Hil
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Draw
28.3%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.40
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.57
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.48
Shrewsbury win
20.4%
Avg Implied 24.0% · @ 3.87
Edge
-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Dafabet
3.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fleetwood Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.10
1.19
1.19
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.16
1.16
1.25
1.25
1.08
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.67
1.00
1.29
0.69
2.00
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
3.25
1.00
0.00
1.67
4.33
vs Similar (26)
0.73
1.42
1.00
1.38
0.46
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.3%
@ 1.31-0.5%
Under 1.5
29.7%
@ 3.18+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Under
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.0%
@ 2.00-4.0%
Under 2.5
57.0%
@ 1.77+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Betfair
2.00
Under
Betano
1.80
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.1%
@ 3.51-4.4%
Under 3.5
77.9%
@ 1.26+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.64
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Both teams to score
Yes
46.8%
@ 1.82-4.0%
No
53.2%
@ 1.88+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
No
William Hil
1.91
Unibet
1.91
Betfair
1.90
Betano
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 6.18+6.2%
1-0
12.6%@ 6.31+5.6%
2-0
10.6%@ 8.29+5.2%
0-0
10.3%@ 8.85+5.3%
2-1
9.2%@ 7.88+3.6%
0-1
6.7%@ 9.76+2.2%
3-0
5.4%@ 14.99+2.4%
1-2
5.3%@ 12.05+1.6%
Fleetwood Town goals ↓
Shrewsbury goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
6.7%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
5.3%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.2%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.4%
4.7%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fleetwood Town goals (down), columns = Shrewsbury goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Fleetwood Town is 0.26 points better than Shrewsbury in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Fleetwood Town is 0.33 goals better than Shrewsbury in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Fleetwood Town is 0.24 goals better than Shrewsbury in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Fleetwood Town is 5.6 percentage points better than Shrewsbury in terms of average possession (50% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fleetwood Town
For 5.2 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 9.9 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shrewsbury
For 4.3 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 11.9 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fleetwood Town
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.1
10.8
3.6
2.8
4.5
22.6
22.2
23.0
vs Stronger (9)
11.2
11.0
11.5
3.1
2.4
4.0
22.2
20.8
23.8
vs Similar (41)
10.2
9.9
10.6
3.7
3.0
4.5
22.7
22.6
22.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
58%
62%
54%
38%
71%
58%
58%
58%
% under line
40%
42%
38%
46%
62%
29%
42%
42%
42%
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
9.5
7.7
4.2
3.8
4.5
22.6
22.1
23.1
vs Stronger (7)
7.3
9.3
5.8
3.4
3.0
3.8
22.0
22.7
21.5
vs Similar (42)
8.5
9.5
7.6
4.1
4.0
4.2
22.5
22.0
22.9
vs Weaker (1)
17.0
-
17.0
14.0
-
14.0
33.0
-
33.0
% over line
36%
48%
26%
56%
48%
63%
60%
65%
56%
% under line
64%
52%
74%
44%
52%
37%
40%
35%
44%
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.8
Swindon
11.4
York
11.2
Walsall
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Chesterfield
10.3
Barnet
10.2
Oldham
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Exeter
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.8
Accrington
9.8
Gillingham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.4
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Rochdale
9.0
Colchester
9.0
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.2
Accrington
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Cheltenham
3.4
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.1
Crewe
25.1
Colchester
24.9
Salford
24.8
Oldham
24.7
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Gillingham
23.6
Rotherham
23.5
Rochdale
23.5
Newport County
23.2
Walsall
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Tranmere
22.7
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.1
Exeter
22.0
Chesterfield
22.0
Port Vale
21.9
Northampton
21.9
Accrington
21.8
Swindon
20.3
York
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.7%
@ 2.44+6.9%
Under 9.5
55.3%
@ 1.48-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.56
Marathonbet
2.56
Betano
2.55
Unibet
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.63
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
53.5%
Under 3.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
59.5%
Under 21.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fleetwood Town or Draw
79.6%
Avg Implied 76.3% · @ 1.22
Edge
+3.3%
51%
28%
20%
covers Fleetwood Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Fleetwood Town or Shrewsbury
71.7%
Avg Implied 73.0% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.3%
51%
28%
20%
covers Fleetwood Town + Shrewsbury
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Draw or Shrewsbury
48.7%
Avg Implied 50.6% · @ 1.83
Edge
-2.0%
51%
28%
20%
covers Draw + Shrewsbury
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.88
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fleetwood Town over/under 0.5
Over
78.2%
@ 1.20+0.7%
Under
21.8%
@ 4.13-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.25
1xBet
4.25
Unibet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Fleetwood Town over/under 1.5
Over
45.0%
@ 2.01-1.4%
Under
55.0%
@ 1.74+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
BetVictor
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Betano
2.02
Under
Unibet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Fleetwood Town over/under 2.5
Over
19.7%
@ 4.25-2.1%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.19+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
1xBet
4.35
Marathonbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Under
Unibet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Fleetwood Town over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
@ 9.67-2.8%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.04+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5
Over
58.3%
@ 1.48-4.3%
Under
41.7%
@ 2.48+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5
Over
21.8%
@ 3.39-5.6%
Under
78.2%
@ 1.28+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.52
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.48
Under
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5
Over
5.9%
@ 9.55-4.0%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.05+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Betfair
9.00
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Shrewsbury over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
@ 20.50-3.5%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fleetwood Town, so a minus line means Fleetwood Town give that many goals of a start and Shrewsbury receive them. At -1, Fleetwood Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fleetwood Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fleetwood Town)
Fleetwood Town -2
11.1%
@ 7.62-0.7%
Draw -2
16.1%
@ 5.37-0.6%
Shrewsbury +2
72.8%
@ 1.25+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
6.50
Draw
Marathonbet
5.70
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
4.90
Away
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Handicap -1 (Fleetwood Town)
Fleetwood Town -1
27.2%
@ 3.42+1.0%
Draw -1
24.2%
@ 3.53-1.2%
Shrewsbury +1
48.7%
@ 1.85+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.38
Unibet
3.15
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.56
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.40
Away
Unibet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Handicap +1 (Fleetwood Town)
Fleetwood Town +1
79.6%
@ 1.21+7.1%
Draw +1
13.3%
@ 5.15-3.8%
Shrewsbury -1
7.0%
@ 8.52-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.25
Marathonbet
3.75
Away
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
5.60
Handicap +2 (Fleetwood Town)
Fleetwood Town +2
93.0%
@ 1.05+3.8%
Draw +2
5.3%
@ 13.00-1.9%
Shrewsbury -2
1.7%
@ 26.00-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Away
Bet365
26.00
Betfair
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fleetwood Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.40
0.44
0.44
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.40
0.42
0.42
0.54
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.77
0.29
0.43
0.25
1.06
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
0.00
0.00
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (26)
0.23
0.62
0.31
0.46
0.15
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.5%
@ 1.40+0.1%
Under 0.5
33.5%
@ 2.76-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
BetVictor
1.43
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
William Hil
2.80
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.8%
@ 2.88-1.3%
Under 1.5
69.2%
@ 1.37+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.04
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.95
1xBet
2.90
William Hil
2.90
Under
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 7.61-1.4%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.06+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
William Hil
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
1xBet
7.60
Marathonbet
7.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fleetwood Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.1%
@ 1.84-1.1%
Under
50.9%
@ 1.86+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Under
Unibet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Fleetwood Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.6%
@ 5.39-1.6%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.12+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.50
Betano
5.30
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Fleetwood Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.7%
@ 13.12-3.5%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.8%
@ 2.58-2.2%
Under
66.2%
@ 1.45+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.69
1xBet
2.63
10Bet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.55
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.8%
@ 9.41-3.1%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.04+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fleetwood Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.76
0.83
0.83
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.71
0.86
0.44
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.81
0.69
0.92
0.31
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Fleetwood Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.9%
@ 1.25+1.6%
Under 0.5
24.1%
@ 3.61-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.75
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
William Hil
3.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.6%
@ 2.20+0.3%
Under 1.5
57.4%
@ 1.61-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.25
William Hil
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.7%
@ 4.91-1.2%
Under 2.5
82.3%
@ 1.15+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.05
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Betano
4.45
Under
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fleetwood Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.5%
@ 1.61+1.0%
Under
41.5%
@ 2.18-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
Fleetwood Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.4%
@ 3.96+0.0%
Under
76.6%
@ 1.21-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Betano
3.75
Under
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Fleetwood Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.4%
@ 9.38-3.6%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.04+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.4%
@ 2.10-2.9%
Under
58.6%
@ 1.67+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.10
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Under
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.60
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.3%
@ 6.83-3.3%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.07+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.00
1xBet
6.80
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.9%
@ 19.00-3.2%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.5%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
Under 5.5
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+3.0%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
94.1%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+4.0%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.6%
1.04
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
-
-
-
+3.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+3.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
Home +2 handicap
93.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
+3.8%
Under 4.5
90.4%
1.07
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Unibet
1.07
+3.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.7%
1.07
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
-
+3.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.05
+1.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.4%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+1.6%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.3%
1.15
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
+1.2%
Under 5.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.3%
1.19
Unibet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
+2.1%
Home or Draw
79.6%
1.22
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+3.3%
Home +1 handicap
79.6%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
+7.1%
Home over 0.5 goals
78.2%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+0.7%
Away under 1.5 goals
78.2%
1.28
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
+5.6%
Under 3.5
77.9%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
+4.4%
Under 11.5 corners
77.7%
1.16
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
-1.9%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.6%
1.21
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
-
-0.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.9%
1.25
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+1.6%
Over 19.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.8%
1.25
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
+1.3%
Under 25.5 fouls
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.7%
1.27
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.27
-1.3%
Over 1.5
70.3%
1.31
BetVictor
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
-0.5%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fleetwood Town
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ched Evans40%
Will Davies40%
Ronan Coughlan33%
F. Potter20%
J. Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
S. Rooney0%
L. McCann0%
M. Helm0%
Rhys Bennett0%
A. Murphy0%
H. Neal0%
A. Loupalo-Bi0%
Crispin McLean0%
R. Cirino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rhys Bennett50%
F. Potter40%
Andy Cannon33%
S. Rooney20%
L. McCann20%
H. Neal20%
Will Davies20%
J. Lynch0%
Danny Andrew0%
Ched Evans0%
Ronan Coughlan0%
M. Helm0%
A. Murphy0%
A. Loupalo-Bi0%
Crispin McLean0%
R. Cirino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ronan Coughlan33%
Ched Evans20%
S. Rooney20%
M. Helm20%
F. Potter20%
J. Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
L. McCann0%
Rhys Bennett0%
A. Murphy0%
H. Neal0%
A. Loupalo-Bi0%
Will Davies0%
Crispin McLean0%
R. Cirino0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ched Evans40%
M. Helm40%
Will Davies20%
J. Lynch0%
Andy Cannon0%
Danny Andrew0%
S. Rooney0%
L. McCann0%
Ronan Coughlan0%
Rhys Bennett0%
A. Murphy0%
H. Neal0%
A. Loupalo-Bi0%
F. Potter0%
Crispin McLean0%
R. Cirino0%
Shrewsbury
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Davison40%
William Boyle20%
G. Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Tom Anderson0%
J. Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
William Michael Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Joe Gbode0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tom Anderson67%
Arkell Jude-Boyd50%
Joe Gbode40%
Jay Turner-Cooke25%
William Boyle20%
G. Lloyd20%
Kevin Berkoe20%
Thomas Sang0%
J. Ruffels0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
William Michael Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Will Gray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
William Boyle0%
G. Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Tom Anderson0%
J. Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
William Michael Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Joe Gbode0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Davison20%
Isaac Fletcher20%
Joe Gbode20%
William Boyle0%
G. Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Tom Anderson0%
J. Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
William Michael Brook0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Fleetwood Town and Shrewsbury have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Fleetwood Town and Shrewsbury have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Fleetwood Town and Shrewsbury have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Fleetwood Town and Shrewsbury have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Accrington
Port Vale