Flint Town United are tipped to win, with a 51% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of an Ammanford AFC victory. The model expects a modest 2.6 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13% probability. Flint Town, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.0 goal scored and has not conceded in recent matches, while Ammanford, on the road to a stronger opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2%), Under 5.5 (94.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.3%), Home +2 handicap (92.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.6%) and Under 4.5 (87.4%). Both teams have recently drawn 1-1, hinting at a tight contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flint Town United win
50.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC win
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flint Town United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.50
1.25
1.69
1.36
1.29
vs Stronger (3)
2.67
1.33
2.67
1.33
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.15
1.58
0.92
1.92
1.36
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ammanford AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ammanford AFC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.20
1.53
1.20
1.60
1.20
vs Stronger (22)
1.77
1.23
1.55
1.18
2.00
1.27
vs Similar (8)
1.00
1.12
1.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Flint Town United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.5%
Under 1.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.2%
Under 2.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.5%
Under 3.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.5%
No
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
10.8%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
6.1%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.2%
Flint Town United goals ↓
Ammanford AFC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
6.1%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.8%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.7%
9.5%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
5.2%
5.1%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flint Town United goals (down), columns = Ammanford AFC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Flint Town United is 0.17 points worse than Ammanford AFC in terms of average points per game (0.17 vs 0.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Flint Town United is 0.33 goals better than Ammanford AFC in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Flint Town United is 0.50 goals better than Ammanford AFC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 2.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Flint Town United or Draw
78.1%
Avg Implied -
51%
27%
22%
covers Flint Town United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United or Ammanford AFC
72.8%
Avg Implied -
51%
27%
22%
covers Flint Town United + Ammanford AFC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ammanford AFC
49.1%
Avg Implied -
51%
27%
22%
covers Draw + Ammanford AFC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Flint Town United over/under 0.5
Over
80.1%
Under
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 1.5
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 2.5
Over
22.1%
Under
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 3.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 0.5
Over
62.7%
Under
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 1.5
Over
26.0%
Under
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 2.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Flint Town United, so a minus line means Flint Town United give that many goals of a start and Ammanford AFC receive them. At -1, Flint Town United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Flint Town United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Flint Town United)
Flint Town United -2
11.7%
Draw -2
15.9%
Ammanford AFC +2
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Flint Town United)
Flint Town United -1
27.6%
Draw -1
23.2%
Ammanford AFC +1
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Flint Town United)
Flint Town United +1
78.1%
Draw +1
13.7%
Ammanford AFC -1
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Flint Town United)
Flint Town United +2
91.8%
Draw +2
6.0%
Ammanford AFC -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flint Town United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.62
0.75
0.79
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
0.67
1.67
0.67
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.73
0.42
0.83
0.79
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ammanford AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ammanford AFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (22)
0.68
0.45
0.55
0.45
0.82
0.45
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.62
0.75
1.00
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Flint Town United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flint Town United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flint Town United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.62
0.94
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.85
0.50
1.08
0.57
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ammanford AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ammanford AFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
0.93
0.60
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (22)
1.09
0.77
1.00
0.73
1.18
0.82
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Flint Town United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flint Town United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Flint Town United and Ammanford AFC have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Flint Town United and Ammanford AFC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Flint Town United and Ammanford AFC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Flint Town United and Ammanford AFC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Trefelin
Holywell