This highly anticipated match between Flint Town United and Barry Town in the Wales: Premier League is finely balanced, with the recent form of both teams setting the stage for an intriguing encounter. Flint Town United's struggles at home, having suffered 2 straight defeats, including a 2-3 loss to Barry Town, are a major concern. Meanwhile, Barry Town's 2-game winning run, capped off by a 3-2 victory over Flint Town United, suggests they are in good form.
The model predicts an away win, with a 39% chance of Barry Town emerging victorious. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, and the most likely score is 1-1, occurring with a 12.9% probability. Flint Town United's home form is underwhelming, scoring 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.54. Barry Town, on the other hand, has been scoring 1.55 goals per game while conceding 1.45 away from home.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 78.8% probability, and an edge of 4%. The model also suggests a draw, with a 27% probability. The home win percentage is 34%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 39%.
Results analysis
The win extends Flint Town United's recent struggles, with two consecutive defeats. The match ended 2-3 in favour of Barry Town, confirming the actual result. The model's selection, Away win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's call was vindicated as the favoured team secured the win. The suggested picks largely came in, with Over 1.5 goals hitting at 78.8% probability. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals proved accurate, while the other selections remain untested.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flint Town United win✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied 32.4% · @ 2.79
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.96
William Hil
2.90
888Sport
2.90
1xBet
2.89
Dafabet
2.85
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.24
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Bet365
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Barry Town win✓ Hit
38.8%
Avg Implied 39.8% · @ 2.26
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.36
Superbet
2.35
Betano
2.30
William Hil
2.30
10Bet
2.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flint Town United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.50
1.40
1.47
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (4)
2.75
1.00
2.67
1.33
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.64
1.09
1.64
1.43
1.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barry Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.97
1.53
0.60
1.87
1.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (24)
1.79
0.83
1.62
0.54
2.00
1.18
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Flint Town United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.8%
@ 1.22+4.0%
Under 1.5
21.2%
@ 3.63-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.58
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.1%
@ 1.74+1.1%
Under 2.5
45.9%
@ 1.96-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
SBO
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Under
Bet365
2.05
SBO
2.03
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Betano
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.7%
@ 2.78-1.0%
Under 3.5
68.3%
@ 1.36+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
10Bet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.83
Under
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
888Sport
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.6%
@ 1.60+1.3%
No
41.4%
@ 2.15-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.62
888Sport
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
No
Betfair
2.25
888Sport
2.20
Bet365
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Betano
2.18
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%@ 6.04+5.7%
1-2
8.7%@ 8.31+3.4%
2-1
8.0%@ 9.36+3.3%
0-1
7.4%@ 8.35+2.2%
0-0
7.0%@ 9.96+2.6%
1-0
6.8%@ 9.45+2.1%
0-2
6.4%@ 11.12+2.4%
2-2
5.9%@ 11.15+2.0%
Flint Town United goals ↓
Barry Town goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
7.4%
6.4%
3.1%
1.2%
1
6.8%
13%
8.7%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.4%
8.0%
5.9%
2.9%
1.1%
3
2.5%
3.7%
2.7%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flint Town United goals (down), columns = Barry Town goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Flint Town United is 2.83 points worse than Barry Town in terms of average points per game (0.17 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Flint Town United is 1.83 goals worse than Barry Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Flint Town United is 0.67 goals worse than Barry Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flint Town United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
0.50
1.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.72
0.45
0.73
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barry Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
0.60
0.27
0.87
0.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.25
0.69
0.23
0.91
0.27
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Flint Town United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flint Town United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flint Town United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.73
0.80
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.92
0.64
0.91
0.57
0.93
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barry Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
0.93
0.33
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.00
0.58
0.92
0.31
1.09
0.91
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Flint Town United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flint Town United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.8%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+4.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Flint Town United and Barry Town have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Flint Town United and Barry Town have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Flint Town United and Barry Town have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Flint Town United and Barry Town have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →