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Flint Town United vs Caernarfon Town Result & Analysis

Date: 19/04/2023
Time: 18:30
Final 2-3
Flint Town United
Flint Town United
Vs
41%
26%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Flint Town United win✗ Miss
41.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town win✓ Hit
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-818L41W50W13L22D21W00D01L02L31WH·THE10/01H·PON21/01H·ABE11/02A·HAV18/02A·CAE24/02H·AIR11/03H·PON18/03A·ABE25/03H·HAV01/04A·AIR14/04
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.571.331.471.131.67
vs Stronger (2)1.507.001.008.002.006.00
vs Similar (24)1.041.251.331.080.751.42
vs Weaker (4)2.250.751.500.503.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W12L20W20W22D01L01L22D40W12LA·AIR10/01A·ABE21/01H·HAV11/02A·AIR17/02H·FLI24/02A·PON11/03H·ABE17/03A·HAV25/03H·AIR31/03H·PON15/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.631.751.381.291.93
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (21)1.481.901.731.641.202.20
vs Weaker (7)2.140.712.250.752.000.67
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Flint Town United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.2%
No
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
6.9%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
6.1%
0-1
5.8%
Flint Town United goals ↓
Caernarfon Town goals →
01234
06.1%5.8%4.8%2.2%0.8%
16.9%12%7.8%3.6%1.3%
26.4%9.0%6.2%2.9%1.0%
33.4%4.8%3.3%1.6%0.5%
41.4%1.9%1.3%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flint Town United goals (down), columns = Caernarfon Town goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.59
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Penybont
1.81
Cardiff MET
1.61
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Bala Town
1.33
Newtown AFC
1.32
Pontypridd Town
1.28
Caernarfon Town
1.22
Aberystwyth Town
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Airbus UK
0.06
Flint Town United is 0.12 points worse than Caernarfon Town in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.22).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.50
Bala Town
1.61
Penybont
1.59
Caernarfon Town
1.59
Newtown AFC
1.59
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.47
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.41
Flint Town United
1.28
Pontypridd Town
1.28
Aberystwyth Town
1.28
Cardiff MET
1.24
Airbus UK
0.56
Flint Town United is 0.31 goals worse than Caernarfon Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.59).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.72
Penybont
1.00
Bala Town
1.24
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.48
Pontypridd Town
1.62
Flint Town United
1.66
Caernarfon Town
1.69
Newtown AFC
1.74
Aberystwyth Town
2.28
Airbus UK
3.12
Flint Town United is 0.03 goals better than Caernarfon Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.66 vs 1.69).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L20W20W12L11D11D00D00D02L10WH·THE10/01H·PON21/01H·ABE11/02A·HAV18/02A·CAE24/02H·AIR11/03H·PON18/03A·ABE25/03H·HAV01/04A·AIR14/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.570.600.670.530.47
vs Stronger (2)0.503.001.004.000.002.00
vs Similar (24)0.580.380.580.420.580.33
vs Weaker (4)0.500.500.500.500.500.50
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L00D00D11D01L01L11D20W00DA·AIR10/01A·ABE21/01H·HAV11/02A·AIR17/02H·FLI24/02A·PON11/03H·ABE17/03A·HAV25/03H·AIR31/03H·PON15/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.770.620.560.291.00
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.000.000.002.00
vs Similar (21)0.430.860.640.640.201.10
vs Weaker (7)0.710.430.750.500.670.33
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Flint Town United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flint Town United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L21W30W01L11D10W00D01L00D21WH·THE10/01H·PON21/01H·ABE11/02A·HAV18/02A·CAE24/02H·AIR11/03H·PON18/03A·ABE25/03H·HAV01/04A·AIR14/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.000.730.800.601.20
vs Stronger (2)1.004.000.004.002.004.00
vs Similar (24)0.460.880.750.670.171.08
vs Weaker (4)1.750.251.000.002.500.50
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D20W20W11D00D00D11D20W12LA·AIR10/01A·ABE21/01H·HAV11/02A·AIR17/02H·FLI24/02A·PON11/03H·ABE17/03A·HAV25/03H·AIR31/03H·PON15/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.871.120.811.000.93
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (21)1.051.051.091.001.001.10
vs Weaker (7)1.430.291.500.251.330.33
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Flint Town United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flint Town United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Flint Town United and Caernarfon Town have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
Flint Town United and Caernarfon Town have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Flint Town United and Caernarfon Town have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Flint Town United and Caernarfon Town have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
FTU wins
1
Draws
1
CT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Flint Town United vs Caernarfon Town · H/A from FTU
DateH/AGameScore
24/02/23ACaernarfon Town Vs FTU2-2
23/12/22HFTU Vs Caernarfon Town2-1
14/10/22ACaernarfon Town Vs FTU2-0

Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/23AAirbus UK Vs FTU1-3
01/04/23HFTU Vs Haverfordwest County AFC0-2
25/03/23AAberystwyth Town Vs FTU1-0
18/03/23HFTU Vs Pontypridd Town0-0
11/03/23HFTU Vs Airbus UK2-1
24/02/23ACaernarfon Town Vs FTU2-2
18/02/23AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs FTU3-1
11/02/23HFTU Vs Aberystwyth Town5-0
21/01/23HFTU Vs Pontypridd Town4-1
10/01/23HFTU Vs The New Saints1-8

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/04/23HCT Vs Pontypridd Town1-2
31/03/23HCT Vs Airbus UK4-0
25/03/23AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs CT2-2
17/03/23HCT Vs Aberystwyth Town0-1
11/03/23APontypridd Town Vs CT1-0
24/02/23HCT Vs Flint Town United2-2
17/02/23AAirbus UK Vs CT0-2
11/02/23HCT Vs Haverfordwest County AFC2-0
21/01/23AAberystwyth Town Vs CT2-1
10/01/23AAirbus UK Vs CT0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Flint Town United
Flint Town United
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLW1.17
HomeWWWDL1.40
AwayLLDLW0.93
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%33%27%
AVG goals2.802.802.80
Over 1.5 %73%73%73%
Over 2.5 %43%40%47%
Over 3.5 %30%27%33%
Scored1.231.331.13
Conceded1.571.471.67
BTTS57%60%53%
Clean Sheet20%27%13%
Corners---
Cards---
Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWL1.20
HomeWDLWL1.56
AwayWLWLD0.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %37%50%21%
AVG goals3.173.123.21
Over 1.5 %87%88%86%
Over 2.5 %67%56%79%
Over 3.5 %33%38%29%
Scored1.531.751.29
Conceded1.631.381.93
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet23%25%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3283
81%
2.6
11217+95
4.0
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.50.5
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3261
53%
1.9
4523+22
2.1
69%
34%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.40.7
-
3PenybontPenybont3258
50%
1.8
5132+19
2.6
75%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.61.0
-
4Cardiff METCardiff MET3353
48%
1.6
4149-8
2.7
73%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.5
-
5Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
5045+5
2.8
82%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.51.3
-
6Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3445
38%
1.3
5459-5
3.3
82%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
7Bala TownBala Town3344
36%
1.3
5341+12
2.8
82%
58%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.2
-
8Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3241
38%
1.3
4152-11
2.9
78%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
9Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3239
38%
1.2
5154-3
3.3
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.7
-
10Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3238
34%
1.2
4173-32
3.6
91%
75%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.3
-
11Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
28%
1.1
4153-12
2.9
75%
47%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.7
-
12Airbus UKAirbus UK322
0%
0.1
18100-82
3.7
91%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.1
-
Wales: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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