The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance for Cardiff MET to triumph, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 23% chance of a Flint Town United victory. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly scored match, and the most likely exact score is 1-1, a 12.7% probability. Flint Town United, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.92 goals scored and 1.92 conceded, while Cardiff MET on the road averages 1.0 scored and 1.18 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.3%, Under 6.5 at 97.8%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.6%, Under 5.5 at 93.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 91.2%, Away +2 handicap at 90.7%, Home under 2.5 goals at 90.4%, and Under 4.5 at 85.6%. Flint Town United have recently lost four of five matches, whereas Cardiff MET are on a two-game winning streak, adding weight to the predicted outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flint Town United win
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET win
49.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flint Town United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.50
1.25
1.69
1.36
1.29
vs Stronger (3)
2.67
1.33
2.67
1.33
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.15
1.58
0.92
1.92
1.36
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.40
1.94
1.69
1.50
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
2.67
1.00
3.00
3.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.60
1.36
2.07
1.50
1.00
1.18
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.00
-
-
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Flint Town United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.2%
Under 1.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.8%
Under 2.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.7%
Under 3.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.8%
No
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
9.5%
0-2
8.9%
0-0
7.6%
2-1
6.2%
1-0
5.8%
1-3
5.3%
Flint Town United goals ↓
Cardiff MET goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
9.5%
8.9%
4.9%
2.1%
1
5.8%
13%
9.6%
5.3%
2.2%
2
3.7%
6.2%
5.2%
2.9%
1.2%
3
1.3%
2.2%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flint Town United goals (down), columns = Cardiff MET goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Flint Town United is 1.83 points worse than Cardiff MET in terms of average points per game (0.17 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Flint Town United is 1.67 goals worse than Cardiff MET in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Flint Town United is 0.67 goals worse than Cardiff MET in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Flint Town United or Draw
50.1%
Avg Implied -
23%
27%
50%
covers Flint Town United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United or Cardiff MET
73.4%
Avg Implied -
23%
27%
50%
covers Flint Town United + Cardiff MET
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cardiff MET
76.5%
Avg Implied -
23%
27%
50%
covers Draw + Cardiff MET
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Flint Town United over/under 0.5
Over
66.1%
Under
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 1.5
Over
29.4%
Under
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 2.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5
Over
81.1%
Under
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5
Over
49.7%
Under
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5
Over
23.4%
Under
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 3.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Flint Town United, so a minus line means Flint Town United give that many goals of a start and Cardiff MET receive them. At -1, Flint Town United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Flint Town United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Flint Town United)
Flint Town United -2
2.7%
Draw -2
6.6%
Cardiff MET +2
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Flint Town United)
Flint Town United -1
9.3%
Draw -1
14.2%
Cardiff MET +1
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Flint Town United)
Flint Town United +1
50.1%
Draw +1
22.5%
Cardiff MET -1
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Flint Town United)
Flint Town United +2
72.6%
Draw +2
15.6%
Cardiff MET -2
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flint Town United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.62
0.75
0.79
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
0.67
1.67
0.67
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.73
0.42
0.83
0.79
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.56
0.62
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.60
0.64
0.57
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
-
-
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Flint Town United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.8%
Under 0.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.3%
Under 1.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.9%
Under 2.5
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flint Town United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.5%
Under
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flint Town United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.62
0.94
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.85
0.50
1.08
0.57
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.83
1.38
1.06
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.08
0.76
1.43
0.93
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Flint Town United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.0%
Under 0.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.1%
Under 1.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.9%
Under 2.5
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flint Town United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flint Town United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.8%
Under
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.7%
Under
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Flint Town United and Cardiff MET have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Flint Town United and Cardiff MET have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Flint Town United and Cardiff MET have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Flint Town United and Cardiff MET have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Trefelin
Holywell