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Flora II vs Elva Result & Analysis

Date: 01/09/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 1-4
Flora II
Flora II
Vs
60%
23%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Flora II winâś— Miss
59.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elva winâś“ Hit
17.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W14L40W01L43W41W21W23L30W22DA·K-J18/06A·FCI30/06H·TUL04/07H·ELV13/07A·LAA18/07H·VII01/08A·PAI08/08A·PĂ„R12/08H·NĂ•M22/08A·K-J27/08
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.281.442.421.082.151.77
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)2.201.502.671.001.502.25
vs Weaker (15)2.331.402.171.172.441.56
Clean sheet %32% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-920W21W31W10W10W43W90W11D40W02LH·TUL20/06A·PAI30/06H·NĂ•M04/07A·FLO13/07A·PĂ„R16/07H·LAA01/08H·TUL06/08A·FCI13/08H·K-J20/08A·PAI27/08
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.961.482.691.231.171.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.562.192.001.881.122.50
vs Weaker (9)2.670.223.800.201.250.25
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.4%
Under 2.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.1%
Under 3.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.1%
No
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.6%
1-0
8.4%
3-1
6.8%
3-0
6.5%
0-0
5.6%
2-2
5.1%
Flora II goals ↓
Elva goals →
01234
05.6%3.8%2.5%0.9%0.2%
18.4%11%5.0%1.7%0.4%
29.6%9.9%5.1%1.8%0.5%
36.5%6.8%3.5%1.2%0.3%
43.3%3.5%1.8%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = Elva goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.11
FCI Levadia II
1.89
Elva
1.83
Viimsi
1.75
Flora II
1.72
Nõmme United
1.67
Paide II
1.44
K-Järve JK Järve
0.82
Tulevik
0.64
Pärnu
0.56
Tallinna Kalev II
0.50
Flora II is 0.11 points worse than Elva in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.83).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
2.69
Flora II
2.44
FCI Levadia II
2.36
Nõmme United
2.19
Elva
2.11
Viimsi
2.11
Paide II
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
1.50
K-Järve JK Järve
0.87
Pärnu
0.83
Tulevik
0.78
Flora II is 0.33 goals better than Elva in terms of goals scored per game (2.44 vs 2.11).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Viimsi
1.11
FCI Levadia II
1.25
Laagri
1.28
Elva
1.44
Flora II
1.44
Nõmme United
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Pärnu
2.14
Paide II
2.44
Tulevik
2.83
K-Järve JK Järve
2.84
Flora II and Elva are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.44).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Flora IIFlora II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L30W00D21W40W11D11D10W21WA·K-J18/06A·FCI30/06H·TUL04/07H·ELV13/07A·LAA18/07H·VII01/08A·PAI08/08A·PĂ„R12/08H·NĂ•M22/08A·K-J27/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.080.521.420.330.770.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.800.501.330.170.001.00
vs Weaker (15)1.270.531.500.501.110.56
Clean sheet %56% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
70-710W00D01L00D00D21W70W00D20W00DH·TUL20/06A·PAI30/06H·NĂ•M04/07A·FLO13/07A·PĂ„R16/07H·LAA01/08H·TUL06/08A·FCI13/08H·K-J20/08A·PAI27/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.880.441.380.380.330.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.500.690.750.620.250.75
vs Weaker (9)1.560.002.400.000.500.00
Clean sheet %72% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Flora IIFlora II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W13L10W01L22D01L10W12L20W01LA·K-J18/06A·FCI30/06H·TUL04/07H·ELV13/07A·LAA18/07H·VII01/08A·PAI08/08A·PĂ„R12/08H·NĂ•M22/08A·K-J27/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.921.000.751.381.08
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.401.001.330.831.501.25
vs Weaker (15)1.070.870.670.671.331.00
Clean sheet %44% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W30W10W10W22D20W11D20W02LH·TUL20/06A·PAI30/06H·NĂ•M04/07A·FLO13/07A·PĂ„R16/07H·LAA01/08H·TUL06/08A·FCI13/08H·K-J20/08A·PAI27/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.081.041.310.850.831.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.061.501.251.250.881.75
vs Weaker (9)1.110.221.400.200.750.25
Clean sheet %48% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.2%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

đź§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
FI wins
0
Draws
1
ELV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Flora II vs Elva · H/A from FI
DateH/AGameScore
13/07/22HFI Vs Elva0-1
14/04/22AElva Vs FI1-4

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/08/22AK-Järve JK Järve Vs FI2-2
22/08/22HFI Vs Nõmme United3-0
12/08/22APärnu Vs FI3-2
08/08/22APaide II Vs FI1-2
01/08/22HFI Vs Viimsi4-1
18/07/22ALaagri Vs FI3-4
13/07/22HFI Vs Elva0-1
04/07/22HFI Vs Tulevik4-0
30/06/22AFCI Levadia II Vs FI4-1
18/06/22AK-Järve JK Järve Vs FI0-3

ElvaElva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/08/22APaide II Vs ELV2-0
20/08/22HELV Vs K-Järve JK Järve4-0
13/08/22AFCI Levadia II Vs ELV1-1
06/08/22HELV Vs Tulevik9-0
01/08/22HELV Vs Laagri4-3
16/07/22APärnu Vs ELV0-1
13/07/22AFlora II Vs ELV0-1
04/07/22HELV Vs Nõmme United3-1
30/06/22APaide II Vs ELV1-2
20/06/22HELV Vs Tulevik2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWD1.80
HomeWWLWW2.25
AwayLWWLD1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%75%38%
AVG goals3.723.503.92
Over 1.5 %88%83%92%
Over 2.5 %80%83%77%
Over 3.5 %52%50%54%
Scored2.282.422.15
Conceded1.441.081.77
BTTS56%42%69%
Clean Sheet32%42%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWL1.76
HomeWWWWW2.00
AwayWWWDL1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%62%42%
AVG goals3.443.922.92
Over 1.5 %80%85%75%
Over 2.5 %48%62%33%
Over 3.5 %40%54%25%
Scored1.962.691.17
Conceded1.481.231.75
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet40%46%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3676
67%
2.1
9746+51
4.0
81%
69%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.71.3
-
2FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3668
58%
1.9
8545+40
3.6
94%
72%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.2
-
3ElvaElva3666
56%
1.8
7652+24
3.6
81%
53%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
4ViimsiViimsi3663
56%
1.8
7640+36
3.2
75%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II3662
53%
1.7
8852+36
3.9
89%
78%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.4
-
6Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3660
50%
1.7
7956+23
3.8
94%
64%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.21.6
-
7Paide IIPaide II3652
47%
1.4
7588-13
4.5
100%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.4
-
8K-Järve JK JärveK-Järve JK Järve3831
24%
0.8
33108-75
3.7
84%
76%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.8
-
9TulevikTulevik3623
17%
0.6
28102-74
3.6
86%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.8
-
10PärnuPärnu3620
11%
0.6
3077-47
3.0
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II21
0%
0.5
34-1
3.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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