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Flora II vs Elva Result & Analysis

Date: 29/05/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 0-1
Flora II
Flora II
Vs
58%
22%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Flora II winâś— Miss
57.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elva winâś“ Hit
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-922D02L12L33D11D90W22D20W30W24LA·TAL16/03H·NĂ•M30/03A·NĂ•M06/04H·TAR13/04A·VII17/04H·LUU25/04A·ELV03/05A·FCI08/05H·NĂ•M19/05A·TAR25/05
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.571.532.801.132.331.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)2.391.392.330.892.441.89
vs Weaker (12)2.831.753.501.502.172.00
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W43W10W23L02L11D22D21W52W11DH·TAR15/03H·LUU27/03A·TAL06/04A·FCI13/04H·NĂ•M17/04A·FC 24/04H·FLO03/05H·NĂ•M11/05A·LUU18/05H·FC 22/05
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.302.071.271.931.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.621.311.621.231.621.38
vs Weaker (4)4.501.255.001.504.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%09%119%221%319%413%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
87.6%
Under 1.5
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.6%
Under 2.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.1%
Under 3.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.9%
No
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.5%
1-1
9.3%
2-0
7.3%
3-1
7.0%
2-2
6.2%
1-0
5.7%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.4%
Flora II goals ↓
Elva goals →
01234
03.8%3.0%2.5%1.1%0.4%
15.7%9.3%5.5%2.4%0.8%
27.3%9.5%6.2%2.7%0.9%
35.4%7.0%4.6%2.0%0.7%
43.0%3.9%2.6%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = Elva goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.56
Viimsi
2.17
Tartu Welco
1.75
Elva
1.61
Flora II
1.33
Nõmme Kalju II
1.25
FCI Levadia II
1.25
FC Tallinn
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tallinna Kalev II
0.75
Luunja
0.28
Flora II is 0.28 points worse than Elva in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.61).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.47
Viimsi
2.31
Tartu Welco
2.11
Elva
1.72
FCI Levadia II
1.72
Flora II
1.69
FC Tallinn
1.66
Nõmme Kalju II
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
1.47
Luunja
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Flora II is 0.03 goals worse than Elva in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.72).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nõmme United
0.75
Viimsi
0.75
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.56
Flora II
1.56
Elva
1.64
FCI Levadia II
1.86
FC Tallinn
2.03
Nõmme Kalju II
2.19
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Luunja
3.81
Flora II is 0.08 goals better than Elva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.64).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Flora IIFlora II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L12L21W01L40W10W10W10W13LA·TAL16/03H·NĂ•M30/03A·NĂ•M06/04H·TAR13/04A·VII17/04H·LUU25/04A·ELV03/05A·FCI08/05H·NĂ•M19/05A·TAR25/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.631.270.331.130.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.170.611.220.221.111.00
vs Weaker (12)1.250.671.330.501.170.83
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W00D03L00D10W01L01L21W00DH·TAR15/03H·LUU27/03A·TAL06/04A·FCI13/04H·NĂ•M17/04A·FC 24/04H·FLO03/05H·NĂ•M11/05A·LUU18/05H·FC 22/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.630.670.600.870.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.580.650.380.620.770.69
vs Weaker (4)2.000.502.500.501.500.50
Clean sheet %60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Flora IIFlora II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L01L00D12L10W50W12L10W20W11DA·TAL16/03H·NĂ•M30/03A·NĂ•M06/04H·TAR13/04A·VII17/04H·LUU25/04A·ELV03/05A·FCI08/05H·NĂ•M19/05A·TAR25/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.901.530.801.201.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.220.781.110.671.330.89
vs Weaker (12)1.581.082.171.001.001.17
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W22D10W20W02L01L21W20W31W11DH·TAR15/03H·LUU27/03A·TAL06/04A·FCI13/04H·NĂ•M17/04A·FC 24/04H·FLO03/05H·NĂ•M11/05A·LUU18/05H·FC 22/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.671.400.671.070.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.040.651.230.620.850.69
vs Weaker (4)2.500.752.501.002.500.50
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.6%-------âś— Miss

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

đź§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
6
FI wins
2
Draws
0
ELV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Flora II vs Elva · H/A from FI
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/25AElva Vs FI2-2
22/09/24HFI Vs Elva2-0
27/07/24AElva Vs FI1-3
12/05/24AElva Vs FI2-2
09/03/24HFI Vs Elva2-0
21/10/23AElva Vs FI1-4
26/08/23HFI Vs Elva2-0
25/05/23HFI Vs Elva2-1

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/05/25ATartu Welco Vs FI4-2
19/05/25HFI Vs Nõmme Kalju II3-0
08/05/25AFCI Levadia II Vs FI0-2
03/05/25AElva Vs FI2-2
25/04/25HFI Vs Luunja9-0
17/04/25AViimsi Vs FI1-1
13/04/25HFI Vs Tartu Welco3-3
06/04/25ANõmme Kalju II Vs FI2-1
30/03/25HFI Vs Nõmme United0-2
16/03/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs FI2-2

ElvaElva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/05/25HELV Vs FC Tallinn1-1
18/05/25ALuunja Vs ELV2-5
11/05/25HELV Vs Nõmme Kalju II2-1
03/05/25HELV Vs Flora II2-2
24/04/25AFC Tallinn Vs ELV1-1
17/04/25HELV Vs Nõmme United0-2
13/04/25AFCI Levadia II Vs ELV3-2
06/04/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs ELV0-1
27/03/25HELV Vs Luunja4-3
15/03/25HELV Vs Tartu Welco3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL1.76
HomeWLDWW1.92
AwayLDDWL1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%60%44%
AVG goals4.143.764.52
Over 1.5 %98%96%100%
Over 2.5 %70%64%76%
Over 3.5 %64%56%72%
Scored2.662.682.64
Conceded1.481.081.88
BTTS66%44%88%
Clean Sheet24%44%4%
Corners---
Cards---
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWD1.38
HomeWLDWD1.48
AwayWWLDW1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals3.263.323.20
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %62%64%60%
Over 3.5 %48%56%40%
Scored1.641.841.44
Conceded1.621.481.76
BTTS56%68%44%
Clean Sheet22%16%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3692
83%
2.6
12527+98
4.2
92%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.50.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3678
67%
2.2
8327+56
3.1
81%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.8
-
3Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3663
50%
1.8
7656+20
3.7
86%
72%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.6
-
4ElvaElva3658
47%
1.6
6259+3
3.4
86%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
5Flora IIFlora II3648
36%
1.3
6156+5
3.2
83%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
6FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3645
33%
1.2
6267-5
3.6
89%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
7Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II3645
36%
1.2
5679-23
3.8
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn3842
29%
1.1
6377-14
3.7
89%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
9Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3627
14%
0.8
5396-43
4.1
94%
81%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.7
-
10LuunjaLuunja3610
8%
0.3
40137-97
4.9
89%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.8
-
11PhoenixPhoenix22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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