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Flora II vs Elva Prediction & Stats

Date: 13/09/2026
Time: 09:30
Flora II
Flora II
Vs
42%
25%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Flora II, riding a win after a 5-0 triumph over Tallinna Kalev, looks poised to extend its momentum at home, while Elva, fresh from a 0-0 draw against the same side, will seek to reverse the tide. The model favours a home win, assigning a 44% chance, with a 24% draw probability and a 32% chance of an Elva victory. The expected goal total sits at 3.4, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.4% probability. Flora II averages 1.67 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Elva nets 1.86 and concedes 1.86 on the road. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.6%), Under 6.5 (94.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.3%), Under 5.5 (86.8%), Over 1.5 (86.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (84.3%) and Home +2 handicap (84.1%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Flora II win
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elva win
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D13L00D50W01L30W12L21W00D50WA·NĂ•M12/07H·MAA18/07A·TRA22/07A·NĂ•M25/07A·FC 01/08H·NĂ•M10/08A·TAR15/08H·VII21/08A·ELV24/08H·TAL29/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.532.081.771.821.35
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.171.941.622.250.801.70
vs Weaker (12)3.080.922.801.003.290.86
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-630W31W60W22D21W30W01L10W00D10WA·FC 11/07A·VII16/07A·LĂ„Ă„22/07A·FCI01/08H·TAR08/08H·JOK12/08A·TAL15/08H·MAA20/08H·FLO24/08A·NĂ•M30/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.131.431.002.061.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.751.251.331.002.171.50
vs Weaker (6)1.830.672.001.001.750.50
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.9%
Under 1.5
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.6%
Under 2.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.7%
No
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
5.7%
1-0
5.6%
3-1
5.1%
0-0
4.8%
Flora II goals ↓
Elva goals →
01234
04.8%4.8%4.4%2.3%0.9%
15.6%11%7.7%4.0%1.5%
25.7%8.8%6.7%3.4%1.3%
33.3%5.1%3.9%2.0%0.8%
41.4%2.2%1.7%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = Elva goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Flora II is 0.73 points worse than Elva in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Flora II is 0.26 goals better than Elva in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 1.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Flora II is 0.59 goals worse than Elva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 0.78).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Flora II or Draw
66.9%
Avg Implied -
42%
25%
33%
covers Flora II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora II or Elva
75.0%
Avg Implied -
42%
25%
33%
covers Flora II + Elva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Elva
58.1%
Avg Implied -
42%
25%
33%
covers Draw + Elva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Flora II over/under 0.5
Over
82.5%
Under
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5
Over
52.0%
Under
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5
Over
25.4%
Under
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 3.5
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5
Over
78.4%
Under
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Flora II, so a minus line means Flora II give that many goals of a start and Elva receive them. At -1, Flora II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Flora II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Flora II)
Flora II -2
9.7%
Draw -2
12.9%
Elva +2
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Flora II)
Flora II -1
22.6%
Draw -1
19.3%
Elva +1
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Flora II)
Flora II +1
66.9%
Draw +1
16.9%
Elva -1
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Flora II)
Flora II +2
83.7%
Draw +2
10.0%
Elva -2
6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Flora IIFlora II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D20W00D30W01L00D00D30WA·NĂ•M12/07H·MAA18/07A·TRA22/07A·NĂ•M25/07A·FC 01/08H·NĂ•M10/08A·TAR15/08H·VII21/08A·ELV24/08H·TAL29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.601.080.691.000.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.500.890.751.000.300.80
vs Weaker (12)1.830.171.600.202.000.14
Clean sheet %63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W20W20W00D20W00D01L00D00D10WA·FC 11/07A·VII16/07A·LĂ„Ă„22/07A·FCI01/08H·TAR08/08H·JOK12/08A·TAL15/08H·MAA20/08H·FLO24/08A·NĂ•M30/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.500.430.430.690.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.500.500.330.420.670.58
vs Weaker (6)0.830.501.000.500.750.50
Clean sheet %60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.5%
Under 0.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.0%
Under 1.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.4%
Under 2.5
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.6%
Under
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Flora IIFlora II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L13L00D30W01L00D11D21W00D20WA·NĂ•M12/07H·MAA18/07A·TRA22/07A·NĂ•M25/07A·FC 01/08H·NĂ•M10/08A·TAR15/08H·VII21/08A·ELV24/08H·TAL29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.931.001.080.820.82
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.671.060.881.250.500.90
vs Weaker (12)1.250.751.200.801.290.71
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D40W22D01L30W00D10W00D00DA·FC 11/07A·VII16/07A·LĂ„Ă„22/07A·FCI01/08H·TAR08/08H·JOK12/08A·TAL15/08H·MAA20/08H·FLO24/08A·NĂ•M30/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.631.000.571.380.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.250.751.000.581.500.92
vs Weaker (6)1.000.171.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.6%
Under 0.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.4%
Under 1.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.0%
Under 2.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.3%
Under
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.1%
Under
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.4%
Under
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.1%-------
Away under 2.5 HT goals97.7%-------
Home under 2.5 HT goals96.2%-------
Away under 2.5 2H goals95.2%-------
Under 6.595.1%-------
Home under 2.5 2H goals94.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals93.0%-------
Home under 3.5 goals90.0%-------
Away under 1.5 HT goals88.8%-------
Under 5.588.6%-------
Over 1.584.9%-------
Under 2.5 HT goals84.6%-------
Home +2 handicap83.7%-------
Away under 1.5 2H goals83.6%-------
Home under 1.5 HT goals83.5%-------
Home over 0.5 goals82.5%-------
Over 0.5 2H goals80.6%-------
Away under 2.5 goals80.0%-------
Home under 1.5 2H goals79.7%-------
Under 2.5 2H goals79.0%-------
Away over 0.5 goals78.4%-------
Away +2 handicap77.4%-------
Under 4.576.7%-------
Over 0.5 HT goals75.5%-------
Home or Away75.0%-------
Home under 2.5 goals74.6%-------

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
FI wins
3
Draws
2
ELV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Flora II vs Elva · H/A from FI
DateH/AGameScore
24/08/26AElva Vs FI0-0
02/11/25AElva Vs FI2-0
12/07/25HFI Vs Elva2-0
29/05/25HFI Vs Elva0-1
03/05/25AElva Vs FI2-2
22/09/24HFI Vs Elva2-0
27/07/24AElva Vs FI1-3
12/05/24AElva Vs FI2-2

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HFI Vs Tallinna Kalev5-0
24/08/26AElva Vs FI0-0
21/08/26HFI Vs Viimsi2-1
15/08/26ATartu Welco Vs FI2-1
10/08/26HFI Vs Nõmme Kalju II3-0
01/08/26AFC Tallinn Vs FI1-0
25/07/26ANõmme Kalju II Vs FI0-5
22/07/26ATrans Narva Vs FI0-0
18/07/26HFI Vs Maardu1-3
12/07/26ANõmme United II Vs FI1-1

ElvaElva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26ANõmme United II Vs ELV0-1
24/08/26HELV Vs Flora II0-0
20/08/26HELV Vs Maardu1-0
15/08/26ATallinna Kalev Vs ELV1-0
12/08/26HELV Vs Joker3-0
08/08/26HELV Vs Tartu Welco2-1
01/08/26AFCI Levadia II Vs ELV2-2
22/07/26ALäänemaa Haapsalu Vs ELV0-6
16/07/26AViimsi Vs ELV1-3
11/07/26AFC Tallinn Vs ELV0-3

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.32
HomeLLWWW1.65
AwayDWLLD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%48%26%
AVG goals3.383.523.26
Over 1.5 %82%87%78%
Over 2.5 %60%61%59%
Over 3.5 %42%43%41%
Scored1.862.171.59
Conceded1.521.351.67
BTTS48%43%52%
Clean Sheet32%43%22%
Corners---
Cards---
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.80
HomeWWWWD1.84
AwayWWDLW1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%56%52%
AVG goals3.223.003.44
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %64%60%68%
Over 3.5 %36%28%44%
Scored1.861.682.04
Conceded1.361.321.40
BTTS56%52%60%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElvaElva918
56%
2.0
147+7
2.3
56%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.8
-
2MaarduMaardu918
67%
2.0
2018+2
4.2
78%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
3ViimsiViimsi1016
50%
1.6
2314+9
3.7
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II916
56%
1.8
1919+0
4.2
100%
89%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II1114
36%
1.3
2015+5
3.2
82%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
6Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev813
50%
1.6
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
7Tartu WelcoTartu Welco812
50%
1.5
2115+6
4.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.9
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn911
33%
1.2
811-3
2.1
78%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Nõmme United IINõmme United II98
22%
0.9
916-7
2.8
89%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II105
10%
0.5
927-18
3.6
100%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.7
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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