Flora II vs FCI Levadia II Result & Analysis

Flora II’s recent 5-0 win over Tallinna Kalev shows a team that can fire on all cylinders, yet their home form averages 1.71 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against similar opposition, hinting at a porous defense. FCI Levadia II, after a 2-4 loss to Maardu, has averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.55 conceded on the road, suggesting a tighter but less potent attack. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.9 goals, most likely totaling three and the single most probable scoreline 1-1 at 8.6%. The favoured result is a home win, with probabilities of 41% for Flora II, 23% for a draw, and 36% for Levadia II. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 90.6%, Over 2.5 at 74.2%, and BTTS Yes at 73.9%. Edge percentages are noted only where provided.

The upset came early, as Flora II, the pre-match favourite with a 41% chance, failed to convert its advantage and fell to a 0-2 defeat. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result was an away win for FCI Levadia II. The match saw the “Over 1.5” selection hit, reflecting the 90.6% probability, while “Over 2.5” missed despite a 74.2% chance, and the “BTTS Yes” missed even though it had a 73.9% probability. Flora II had just come off a win, extending their recent run, whereas Levadia II had returned from a defeat. The game’s outcome contradicted the model’s prediction and highlighted the unpredictability of this fixture.