Flora II’s recent win streak and a 5-0 demolition of Tallinna Kalev suggest a potent attack, while FCI Levadia II’s last defeat and a 2-4 loss to Maardu hint at defensive frailties. The model favours a home win, with a 38% chance, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 37% chance of an away victory. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 10.5% probability. Flora II averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.78 conceded at home against similarly ranked teams; Levadia II averages 1.27 scored and 1.36 conceded on the road against similar opposition. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 86.6% probability, and it has hit.
Results analysis
Flora II’s recent win extends their strong run, while FCI Levadia II return after a defeat. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 38% probability, and it proved correct as Flora II triumphed 3-1. The predicted 3-goal total materialised, and the model’s single selection, Over 1.5, hit with an 86.6% chance. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not realised, but the 2-1 outcome fell within the top probabilities. Overall, the model’s call and its lone pick delivered, confirming the forecast’s accuracy for this Esiliiga A encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flora II win✓ Hit
38.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II win✗ Miss
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flora II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.57
2.69
2.06
1.71
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.31
1.38
1.56
1.78
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (14)
3.29
1.79
4.14
2.43
2.43
1.14
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCI Levadia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.13
1.67
1.00
1.60
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.42
1.17
1.54
1.00
1.27
1.36
vs Weaker (6)
2.50
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.5%
Under 2.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.7%
Under 3.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.1%
No
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
7.0%
2-0
4.9%
3-1 ✓
4.8%
0-2
4.7%
1-0
4.7%
Flora II goals ↓
FCI Levadia II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
4.6%
4.7%
2.6%
1.1%
1
4.7%
10%
8.1%
4.6%
1.9%
2
4.9%
8.2%
7.0%
4.0%
1.7%
3
2.8%
4.8%
4.0%
2.3%
1.0%
4
1.2%
2.1%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = FCI Levadia II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nõmme United
2.50
Viimsi
1.97
Flora II
1.92
FCI Levadia II
1.58
JK Tabasalu
1.53
FC Tallinn
1.44
Paide II
1.14
Elva
1.11
Tartu Kalev
1.00
Legion
0.58
K-Järve JK Järve
0.56
Flora II is 0.33 points better than FCI Levadia II in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.17
Flora II
2.39
JK Tabasalu
2.25
FC Tallinn
2.00
Viimsi
1.86
Paide II
1.83
FCI Levadia II
1.58
K-Järve JK Järve
1.39
Elva
1.21
Legion
1.03
Tartu Kalev
0.50
Flora II is 0.81 goals better than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals scored per game (2.39 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tartu Kalev
0.50
Nõmme United
0.81
Viimsi
0.97
FCI Levadia II
1.28
Flora II
1.47
FC Tallinn
1.81
JK Tabasalu
1.94
Elva
2.00
Paide II
2.28
Legion
2.69
K-Järve JK Järve
3.42
Flora II is 0.19 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flora II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.77
1.12
0.81
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.89
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.79
1.29
0.71
1.00
0.86
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCI Levadia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.67
0.53
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.62
0.62
0.54
0.27
0.73
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flora II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.80
1.56
1.25
1.00
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.62
0.56
0.89
0.57
0.29
vs Weaker (14)
2.14
1.00
2.86
1.71
1.43
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCI Levadia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.53
1.00
0.47
1.27
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.54
0.92
0.46
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →