PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Flora II vs FCI Levadia II Result & Analysis

Date: 05/10/2023
Time: 16:00
Final 3-1
Flora II
Flora II
Vs
38%
24%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Flora II’s recent win streak and a 5-0 demolition of Tallinna Kalev suggest a potent attack, while FCI Levadia II’s last defeat and a 2-4 loss to Maardu hint at defensive frailties. The model favours a home win, with a 38% chance, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 37% chance of an away victory. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 10.5% probability. Flora II averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.78 conceded at home against similarly ranked teams; Levadia II averages 1.27 scored and 1.36 conceded on the road against similar opposition. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 86.6% probability, and it has hit.

Results analysis

Flora II’s recent win extends their strong run, while FCI Levadia II return after a defeat. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 38% probability, and it proved correct as Flora II triumphed 3-1. The predicted 3-goal total materialised, and the model’s single selection, Over 1.5, hit with an 86.6% chance. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not realised, but the 2-1 outcome fell within the top probabilities. Overall, the model’s call and its lone pick delivered, confirming the forecast’s accuracy for this Esiliiga A encounter.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Flora II win✓ Hit
38.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II win✗ Miss
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-703L02L40W00D73W20W12L20W21W04LH·NÕM22/07H·FCI31/07A·LEG05/08A·FCI13/08H·JK 21/08H·ELV26/08H·VII16/09A·FC 23/09H·LEG28/09A·JK 02/10
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.231.572.692.061.711.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.311.381.561.781.000.86
vs Weaker (14)3.291.794.142.432.431.14
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L00D00D21W10W00D22D00D12L30WA·NÕM05/08H·FLO13/08H·VII16/08A·K-J19/08A·JK 27/08H·FC 02/09H·PAI17/09A·ELV24/09H·JK 27/09A·FC 02/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.131.671.001.601.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.421.171.541.001.271.36
vs Weaker (6)2.501.002.501.002.501.00
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.5%
Under 2.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.7%
Under 3.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.1%
No
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
7.0%
2-0
4.9%
3-1 ✓
4.8%
0-2
4.7%
1-0
4.7%
Flora II goals ↓
FCI Levadia II goals →
01234
04.2%4.6%4.7%2.6%1.1%
14.7%10%8.1%4.6%1.9%
24.9%8.2%7.0%4.0%1.7%
32.8%4.8%4.0%2.3%1.0%
41.2%2.1%1.7%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = FCI Levadia II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.50
Viimsi
1.97
Flora II
1.92
FCI Levadia II
1.58
JK Tabasalu
1.53
FC Tallinn
1.44
Paide II
1.14
Elva
1.11
Tartu Kalev
1.00
Legion
0.58
K-Järve JK Järve
0.56
Flora II is 0.33 points better than FCI Levadia II in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.58).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.17
Flora II
2.39
JK Tabasalu
2.25
FC Tallinn
2.00
Viimsi
1.86
Paide II
1.83
FCI Levadia II
1.58
K-Järve JK Järve
1.39
Elva
1.21
Legion
1.03
Tartu Kalev
0.50
Flora II is 0.81 goals better than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals scored per game (2.39 vs 1.58).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tartu Kalev
0.50
Nõmme United
0.81
Viimsi
0.97
FCI Levadia II
1.28
Flora II
1.47
FC Tallinn
1.81
JK Tabasalu
1.94
Elva
2.00
Paide II
2.28
Legion
2.69
K-Järve JK Järve
3.42
Flora II is 0.19 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Flora IIFlora II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D20W00D11D10W12L10W10W03LH·NÕM22/07H·FCI31/07A·LEG05/08A·FCI13/08H·JK 21/08H·ELV26/08H·VII16/09A·FC 23/09H·LEG28/09A·JK 02/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.771.120.810.710.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.750.751.000.890.430.57
vs Weaker (14)1.140.791.290.711.000.86
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D00D11D00D00D11D00D10W10WA·NÕM05/08H·FLO13/08H·VII16/08A·K-J19/08A·JK 27/08H·FC 02/09H·PAI17/09A·ELV24/09H·JK 27/09A·FC 02/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.600.670.530.330.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.460.620.620.540.270.73
vs Weaker (6)0.670.501.000.500.500.50
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Flora IIFlora II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L02L20W00D62W10W00D10W11D01LH·NÕM22/07H·FCI31/07A·LEG05/08A·FCI13/08H·JK 21/08H·ELV26/08H·VII16/09A·FC 23/09H·LEG28/09A·JK 02/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.801.561.251.000.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.560.620.560.890.570.29
vs Weaker (14)2.141.002.861.711.430.29
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D10W10W00D11D00D02L20WA·NÕM05/08H·FLO13/08H·VII16/08A·K-J19/08A·JK 27/08H·FC 02/09H·PAI17/09A·ELV24/09H·JK 27/09A·FC 02/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.531.000.471.270.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.960.540.920.461.000.64
vs Weaker (6)1.830.501.500.502.000.50
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
3
FI wins
1
Draws
3
FLI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Flora II vs FCI Levadia II · H/A from FI
DateH/AGameScore
13/08/23AFCI Levadia II Vs FI0-0
31/07/23HFI Vs FCI Levadia II0-2
08/06/23AFCI Levadia II Vs FI1-2
06/11/22HFI Vs FCI Levadia II1-2
05/09/22AFCI Levadia II Vs FI0-3
30/06/22AFCI Levadia II Vs FI4-1
21/03/22HFI Vs FCI Levadia II4-1

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/10/23AJK Tabasalu Vs FI4-0
28/09/23HFI Vs Legion2-1
23/09/23AFC Tallinn Vs FI0-2
16/09/23HFI Vs Viimsi1-2
26/08/23HFI Vs Elva2-0
21/08/23HFI Vs JK Tabasalu7-3
13/08/23AFCI Levadia II Vs FI0-0
05/08/23ALegion Vs FI0-4
31/07/23HFI Vs FCI Levadia II0-2
22/07/23HFI Vs Nõmme United0-3

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/10/23AFC Tallinn Vs FLI0-3
27/09/23HFLI Vs JK Tabasalu1-2
24/09/23AElva Vs FLI0-0
17/09/23HFLI Vs Paide II2-2
02/09/23HFLI Vs FC Tallinn0-0
27/08/23AJK Tabasalu Vs FLI0-1
19/08/23AK-Järve JK Järve Vs FLI1-2
16/08/23HFLI Vs Viimsi0-0
13/08/23HFLI Vs Flora II0-0
05/08/23ANõmme United Vs FLI4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.86
HomeLWWLW1.88
AwayWWDWL1.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%60%56%
AVG goals3.864.523.20
Over 1.5 %86%92%80%
Over 2.5 %74%80%68%
Over 3.5 %48%52%44%
Scored2.402.841.96
Conceded1.461.681.24
BTTS56%64%48%
Clean Sheet34%24%44%
Corners---
Cards---
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDLW1.70
HomeDDDDL1.62
AwayLWWDW1.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%46%54%
AVG goals3.103.352.83
Over 1.5 %82%85%79%
Over 2.5 %66%73%58%
Over 3.5 %34%38%29%
Scored1.902.151.62
Conceded1.201.191.21
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet34%38%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3690
78%
2.5
11429+85
4.0
89%
78%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.20.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3671
58%
2.0
6735+32
2.8
69%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
3Flora IIFlora II3669
61%
1.9
8653+33
3.9
86%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.5
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3657
44%
1.6
5746+11
2.9
81%
64%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
5JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3655
50%
1.5
8170+11
4.2
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.9
-
6FC TallinnFC Tallinn3652
44%
1.4
7265+7
3.8
86%
78%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.8
-
7ElvaElva3842
32%
1.1
4676-30
3.2
82%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
8Paide IIPaide II3641
33%
1.1
6682-16
4.1
78%
69%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
9LegionLegion3621
14%
0.6
3797-60
3.7
83%
75%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
10K-Järve JK JärveK-Järve JK Järve3620
17%
0.6
50123-73
4.8
92%
86%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.43.4
-
11Tartu KalevTartu Kalev22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

← all matches