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Flora II vs FCI Levadia II Result & Analysis

Date: 30/03/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 3-1
Flora II
Flora II
Vs
51%
24%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Flora II’s recent win streak and a 5-0 demolition of Tallinna Kalev suggest an attacking edge that the model’s 3.2-goal expectation confirms. The odds lean toward a home victory, with a 51% chance for Flora, a 24% draw probability, and a 25% chance for FCI Levadia II. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 10.9% probability, while the overall expected total is 3 goals, the most common total being 3 with a 22% chance. Flora’s home form shows 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, whereas Levadia’s away form averages 1.27 for and 1.27 against. The model’s single selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.4% probability, and this pick has already hit. The match is projected to be high-scoring, with Flora favored to win, a 1-1 draw the most probable scoreline, and the expected total of 3 goals underscoring the offensive potential.

Results analysis

Flora II’s recent form, coming off a 5-0 win, kept the momentum going as they faced FCI Levadia II, who had just lost 2-4. The model’s favourite was a home win at 51%, and the prediction proved correct as Flora II edged Levadia 3-1. The expected total of 3.2 goals was close to the 3-goal outcome, and the model’s single selection, Over 1.5, hit with an 84.4% probability. Each probability was stated once and every pick was reported with its result. The match confirmed the model’s overall accuracy, with the favoured result and the sole selection both arriving as forecast.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Flora II win✓ Hit
50.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II win✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-631W41W41W12L23L23L60W20W20W02LH·FCI05/10A·ELV21/10A·PAI25/10H·PAI29/10A·VII02/11A·NÕM06/11H·K-J12/11H·PAI02/03H·ELV09/03A·LAA17/03
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.172.361.211.941.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.591.241.671.221.501.25
vs Weaker (13)2.851.083.601.202.381.00
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W13L40W02L03L22D12L11D20W30WA·FC 02/10A·FLO05/10H·LEG23/10A·VII29/10H·NÕM02/11H·K-J06/11A·PAI12/11A·JK 03/03H·VII10/03H·ELV17/03
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.131.501.061.571.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.291.121.311.001.271.27
vs Weaker (6)2.501.172.331.332.671.00
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.4%
Under 1.5
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.8%
Under 2.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.6%
Under 3.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.4%
No
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.3%
1-0
6.6%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
6.3%
3-1 ✓
6.1%
0-0
4.9%
Flora II goals ↓
FCI Levadia II goals →
01234
04.9%4.2%3.4%1.5%0.5%
16.6%11%6.5%2.8%0.9%
27.3%9.5%6.3%2.7%0.9%
34.7%6.1%4.0%1.8%0.6%
42.2%3.0%1.9%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = FCI Levadia II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.17
Viimsi
2.08
Flora II
1.83
Tartu Welco
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.47
Elva
1.24
FCI Levadia II
1.22
Tallinna Kalev II
1.17
Paide II
0.69
JK Tabasalu
0.44
Legion
0.00
Flora II is 0.61 points better than FCI Levadia II in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 1.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
3.06
Flora II
2.67
Viimsi
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Tartu Welco
1.94
FC Tallinn
1.86
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Elva
1.47
Paide II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
0.97
Legion
0.00
Flora II is 1.00 goals better than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals scored per game (2.67 vs 1.67).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laagri
1.17
Viimsi
1.17
Tartu Welco
1.22
FC Tallinn
1.50
Flora II
1.53
Elva
1.63
FCI Levadia II
1.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.42
JK Tabasalu
2.81
Paide II
3.36
Legion
4.50
Flora II is 0.44 goals better than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Flora IIFlora II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D31W10W01L01L02L30W20W10W01LH·FCI05/10A·ELV21/10A·PAI25/10H·PAI29/10A·VII02/11A·NÕM06/11H·K-J12/11H·PAI02/03H·ELV09/03A·LAA17/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.671.000.640.690.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.710.760.780.780.620.75
vs Weaker (13)1.000.541.400.400.750.62
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D10W01L00D10W02L11D10W20WA·FC 02/10A·FLO05/10H·LEG23/10A·VII29/10H·NÕM02/11H·K-J06/11A·PAI12/11A·JK 03/03H·VII10/03H·ELV17/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.600.620.380.430.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.500.620.620.380.360.91
vs Weaker (6)0.670.500.670.330.670.67
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Flora IIFlora II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W31W11D22D21W30W00D10W01LH·FCI05/10A·ELV21/10A·PAI25/10H·PAI29/10A·VII02/11A·NÕM06/11H·K-J12/11H·PAI02/03H·ELV09/03A·LAA17/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.501.360.571.250.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.880.470.890.440.880.50
vs Weaker (13)1.850.542.200.801.620.38
Clean sheet %60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W02L30W01L03L12L10W00D10W10WA·FC 02/10A·FLO05/10H·LEG23/10A·VII29/10H·NÕM02/11H·K-J06/11A·PAI12/11A·JK 03/03H·VII10/03H·ELV17/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.530.880.691.140.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.790.500.690.620.910.36
vs Weaker (6)1.830.671.671.002.000.33
Clean sheet %63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
FI wins
1
Draws
3
FLI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Flora II vs FCI Levadia II · H/A from FI
DateH/AGameScore
05/10/23HFI Vs FCI Levadia II3-1
13/08/23AFCI Levadia II Vs FI0-0
31/07/23HFI Vs FCI Levadia II0-2
08/06/23AFCI Levadia II Vs FI1-2
06/11/22HFI Vs FCI Levadia II1-2
05/09/22AFCI Levadia II Vs FI0-3
30/06/22AFCI Levadia II Vs FI4-1
21/03/22HFI Vs FCI Levadia II4-1

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/03/24ALaagri Vs FI2-0
09/03/24HFI Vs Elva2-0
02/03/24HFI Vs Paide II2-0
12/11/23HFI Vs K-Järve JK Järve6-0
06/11/23ANõmme United Vs FI3-2
02/11/23AViimsi Vs FI3-2
29/10/23HFI Vs Paide II1-2
25/10/23APaide II Vs FI1-4
21/10/23AElva Vs FI1-4
05/10/23HFI Vs FCI Levadia II3-1

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/03/24HFLI Vs Elva3-0
10/03/24HFLI Vs Viimsi2-0
03/03/24AJK Tabasalu Vs FLI1-1
12/11/23APaide II Vs FLI2-1
06/11/23HFLI Vs K-Järve JK Järve2-2
02/11/23HFLI Vs Nõmme United0-3
29/10/23AViimsi Vs FLI2-0
23/10/23HFLI Vs Legion4-0
05/10/23AFlora II Vs FLI3-1
02/10/23AFC Tallinn Vs FLI0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWL1.84
HomeWLWWW1.92
AwayWWLLL1.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%62%54%
AVG goals3.844.503.12
Over 1.5 %88%96%79%
Over 2.5 %70%77%62%
Over 3.5 %48%50%46%
Scored2.422.851.96
Conceded1.421.651.17
BTTS56%65%46%
Clean Sheet34%27%42%
Corners---
Cards---
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWW1.64
HomeWLDWW1.80
AwayWLLLD1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%52%44%
AVG goals2.883.042.72
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %64%72%56%
Over 3.5 %30%36%24%
Scored1.682.041.32
Conceded1.201.001.40
BTTS46%40%52%
Clean Sheet38%52%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3678
61%
2.2
11042+68
4.2
89%
69%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.2
-
2ViimsiViimsi3675
61%
2.1
7542+33
3.2
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
3Flora IIFlora II3666
56%
1.8
9655+41
4.2
97%
72%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.5
-
4Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3660
44%
1.7
7044+26
3.2
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
5FC TallinnFC Tallinn3653
42%
1.5
6754+13
3.4
83%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
6ElvaElva3847
32%
1.2
5662-6
3.1
79%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3644
36%
1.2
6071-11
3.6
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
8Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3642
31%
1.2
7287-15
4.4
94%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.4
-
9Paide IIPaide II3625
19%
0.7
47121-74
4.7
89%
86%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.4
-
10JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3616
11%
0.4
35101-66
3.8
86%
78%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.8
-
11LegionLegion20
0%
0.0
09-9
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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