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Flora II vs FCI Levadia II Result & Analysis

Date: 21/08/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 4-1
Flora II
Flora II
Vs
49%
23%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Flora II, riding a recent win, looks poised to continue its strong home form, while FCI Levadia II, fresh from a defeat, will have to counterbalance a higher average concession rate. The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.6 goals and a most likely total of three, the 1-1 scoreline leading the list at 9.6% probability. The favourite outcome is a home win, with probabilities of 49% for Flora II, 23% for a draw and 28% for Levadia II. Flora’s home attack averages 1.67 goals per game and its defence concedes 1.67, matching the opponent’s tier; Levadia’s away attack averages 1.5 and its defence concedes 2.14. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5, carrying an 88.2% chance of success. All figures are presented in plain terms, with no additional commentary.

Results analysis

Flora II’s recent form, coming off a win, carried into the match as they secured a 4-1 victory over FCI Levadia II, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 49% probability and proved correct. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 88.2% chance, also hit, as the game saw four goals. The most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 8.9% did not materialise, but the 1-1 draw at 9.6% and 2-2 at 6.9% were close alternatives. Overall, the favoured outcome and the key selection both came through.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Flora II win✓ Hit
48.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II win✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-540W31W22D04L50W13L31W53W13L42WH·JK 16/06A·FCI30/06A·TAR06/07H·FC 13/07H·JK 20/07H·TAL23/07A·ELV27/07A·TAR05/08H·LAA10/08A·PAI17/08
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.801.602.211.363.311.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)2.561.881.671.673.102.00
vs Weaker (14)3.071.292.621.123.671.50
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-532W13L51W12L13L11D11D02L21W03LA·ELV15/06H·FLO30/06H·JK 06/07H·VII10/07A·PAI13/07A·TAR20/07A·VII27/07A·ELV03/08H·JK 11/08H·TAL18/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.701.931.331.602.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.641.801.821.361.502.14
vs Weaker (5)2.401.202.251.253.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.2%
Under 1.5
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.5%
Under 2.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.2%
Under 3.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.3%
No
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
2-1
8.9%
2-2
6.9%
1-2
6.7%
3-1
6.1%
2-0
5.8%
1-0
4.8%
3-2
4.7%
Flora II goals ↓
FCI Levadia II goals →
01234
03.6%3.4%3.3%1.7%0.6%
14.8%9.6%6.7%3.4%1.3%
25.8%8.9%6.9%3.5%1.3%
34.0%6.1%4.7%2.4%0.9%
42.0%3.1%2.4%1.2%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = FCI Levadia II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.17
Viimsi
2.08
Flora II
1.83
Tartu Welco
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.47
Elva
1.24
FCI Levadia II
1.22
Tallinna Kalev II
1.17
Paide II
0.69
JK Tabasalu
0.44
Legion
0.00
Flora II is 0.61 points better than FCI Levadia II in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 1.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
3.06
Flora II
2.67
Viimsi
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Tartu Welco
1.94
FC Tallinn
1.86
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Elva
1.47
Paide II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
0.97
Legion
0.00
Flora II is 1.00 goals better than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals scored per game (2.67 vs 1.67).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laagri
1.17
Viimsi
1.17
Tartu Welco
1.22
FC Tallinn
1.50
Flora II
1.53
Elva
1.63
FCI Levadia II
1.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.42
JK Tabasalu
2.81
Paide II
3.36
Legion
4.50
Flora II is 0.44 goals better than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Flora IIFlora II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W11D12L01L20W02L11D21W11D21WH·JK 16/06A·FCI30/06A·TAR06/07H·FC 13/07H·JK 20/07H·TAL23/07A·ELV27/07A·TAR05/08H·LAA10/08A·PAI17/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.771.070.641.310.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.120.940.670.831.401.00
vs Weaker (14)1.290.571.380.501.170.67
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D11D30W10W12L00D10W01L10W01LA·ELV15/06H·FLO30/06H·JK 06/07H·VII10/07A·PAI13/07A·TAR20/07A·VII27/07A·ELV03/08H·JK 11/08H·TAL18/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.801.200.330.801.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.960.921.270.360.711.36
vs Weaker (5)1.200.201.000.252.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Flora IIFlora II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W20W10W03L30W11D20W32W02L21WH·JK 16/06A·FCI30/06A·TAR06/07H·FC 13/07H·JK 20/07H·TAL23/07A·ELV27/07A·TAR05/08H·LAA10/08A·PAI17/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.831.140.712.000.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.440.941.000.831.701.00
vs Weaker (14)1.790.711.250.622.500.83
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L21W02L01L11D01L01L11D02LA·ELV15/06H·FLO30/06H·JK 06/07H·VII10/07A·PAI13/07A·TAR20/07A·VII27/07A·ELV03/08H·JK 11/08H·TAL18/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.900.731.000.800.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.680.880.551.000.790.79
vs Weaker (5)1.201.001.251.001.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
FI wins
1
Draws
2
FLI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Flora II vs FCI Levadia II · H/A from FI
DateH/AGameScore
30/06/24AFCI Levadia II Vs FI1-3
30/03/24HFI Vs FCI Levadia II3-1
05/10/23HFI Vs FCI Levadia II3-1
13/08/23AFCI Levadia II Vs FI0-0
31/07/23HFI Vs FCI Levadia II0-2
08/06/23AFCI Levadia II Vs FI1-2
06/11/22HFI Vs FCI Levadia II1-2
05/09/22AFCI Levadia II Vs FI0-3

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/24APaide II Vs FI2-4
10/08/24HFI Vs Laagri1-3
05/08/24ATartu Welco Vs FI3-5
27/07/24AElva Vs FI1-3
23/07/24HFI Vs Tallinna Kalev II1-3
20/07/24HFI Vs JK Tabasalu5-0
13/07/24HFI Vs FC Tallinn0-4
06/07/24ATartu Welco Vs FI2-2
30/06/24AFCI Levadia II Vs FI1-3
16/06/24HFI Vs JK Tabasalu4-0

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/08/24HFLI Vs Tallinna Kalev II0-3
11/08/24HFLI Vs JK Tabasalu2-1
03/08/24AElva Vs FLI2-0
27/07/24AViimsi Vs FLI1-1
20/07/24ATartu Welco Vs FLI1-1
13/07/24APaide II Vs FLI3-1
10/07/24HFLI Vs Viimsi1-2
06/07/24HFLI Vs JK Tabasalu5-1
30/06/24HFLI Vs Flora II1-3
15/06/24AElva Vs FLI2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW1.92
HomeWLWLL1.78
AwayWDWWW2.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%57%63%
AVG goals3.843.614.04
Over 1.5 %92%100%85%
Over 2.5 %72%74%70%
Over 3.5 %58%48%67%
Scored2.442.172.67
Conceded1.401.431.37
BTTS60%61%59%
Clean Sheet26%26%26%
Corners---
Cards---
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWL1.42
HomeLWLWL1.38
AwayWLDDL1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%38%42%
AVG goals3.082.853.33
Over 1.5 %84%81%88%
Over 2.5 %68%73%62%
Over 3.5 %36%27%46%
Scored1.641.621.67
Conceded1.441.231.67
BTTS56%46%67%
Clean Sheet32%42%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3678
61%
2.2
11042+68
4.2
89%
69%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.2
-
2ViimsiViimsi3675
61%
2.1
7542+33
3.2
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
3Flora IIFlora II3666
56%
1.8
9655+41
4.2
97%
72%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.5
-
4Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3660
44%
1.7
7044+26
3.2
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
5FC TallinnFC Tallinn3653
42%
1.5
6754+13
3.4
83%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
6ElvaElva3847
32%
1.2
5662-6
3.1
79%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3644
36%
1.2
6071-11
3.6
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
8Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3642
31%
1.2
7287-15
4.4
94%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.4
-
9Paide IIPaide II3625
19%
0.7
47121-74
4.7
89%
86%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.4
-
10JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3616
11%
0.4
35101-66
3.8
86%
78%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.8
-
11LegionLegion20
0%
0.0
09-9
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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