Flora II’s recent 5-match run, highlighted by a 5-0 win over Tallinna Kalev, gives the model a clear edge for a home victory, reflected in the 63% home win probability. The model’s pick is a home win, and the expected total of 3.8 goals aligns with the 3-goal total most likely, though the single most probable scoreline is 2-1 with a 9.1% chance. Flora’s home form shows 2.0 goals scored and 1.38 conceded against similar opposition, while FCI Levadia II’s away record shows 1.43 goals scored and 2.64 conceded, underscoring the home side’s advantage. The probabilities for the match outcome are 63% home win, 19% draw, and 17% away win. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 with an 89.9% probability and Over 2.5 with a 73.0% probability. The model’s selection for the match result remains the home win, supported by Flora’s stronger home form and the weaker away defense of FCI Levadia II.
Results analysis
Flora II’s victory over FCI Levadia II, 2-0, extended their winning run, confirming the model’s prediction that the home side would triumph. The pre-match favourite was Home win with a 63% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model also called Over 1.5 goals with an 89.9% probability, which hit, while Over 2.5 goals at 73.0% missed. The most likely scoreline was 2-1 at 9.1%, but Flora’s 2-0 result was a clean win. The match’s total of two goals fell short of the expected 3.8 and the most likely total of three. Overall, the model’s selections performed well, delivering an accurate outcome and a solid over-1.5 hit.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flora II win✓ Hit
63.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II win✗ Miss
17.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flora II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.73
1.63
2.33
1.40
3.13
1.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
2.47
1.65
2.00
1.38
2.89
1.89
vs Weaker (13)
3.08
1.62
2.71
1.43
3.50
1.83
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCI Levadia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
2.17
1.79
1.71
1.50
2.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.62
2.23
1.83
1.75
1.43
2.64
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.75
1.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.9%
Under 1.5
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
73.0%
Under 2.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.5%
Under 3.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.1%
No
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.1%
1-1
8.0%
3-1
7.6%
2-0 ✓
7.1%
3-0
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
1-0
4.9%
3-2
4.9%
Flora II goals ↓
FCI Levadia II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.0%
2.2%
1.9%
0.8%
0.3%
1
4.9%
8.0%
4.7%
2.0%
0.6%
2
7.1%
9.1%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.9%
7.6%
4.9%
2.1%
0.7%
4
3.7%
4.8%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = FCI Levadia II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nõmme United
2.56
Viimsi
2.17
Tartu Welco
1.75
Elva
1.61
Flora II
1.33
Nõmme Kalju II
1.25
FCI Levadia II
1.25
FC Tallinn
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tallinna Kalev II
0.75
Luunja
0.28
Flora II is 0.08 points better than FCI Levadia II in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.47
Viimsi
2.31
Tartu Welco
2.11
Elva
1.72
FCI Levadia II
1.72
Flora II
1.69
FC Tallinn
1.66
Nõmme Kalju II
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
1.47
Luunja
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Flora II is 0.03 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.72).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nõmme United
0.75
Viimsi
0.75
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.56
Flora II
1.56
Elva
1.64
FCI Levadia II
1.86
FC Tallinn
2.03
Nõmme Kalju II
2.19
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Luunja
3.81
Flora II is 0.31 goals better than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flora II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.60
0.93
0.40
1.27
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.65
0.75
0.38
1.22
0.89
vs Weaker (13)
1.23
0.54
1.14
0.43
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCI Levadia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.07
1.14
0.71
0.69
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.85
1.15
1.17
0.75
0.57
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flora II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.03
1.40
1.00
1.87
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.47
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.67
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.85
1.08
1.57
1.00
2.17
1.17
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCI Levadia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.10
0.64
1.00
0.81
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.77
1.08
0.67
1.00
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →