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Flora II vs FCI Levadia II Result & Analysis

Date: 02/03/2025
Time: 17:00
Final 2-0
Flora II
Flora II
Vs
63%
19%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Flora II’s recent 5-match run, highlighted by a 5-0 win over Tallinna Kalev, gives the model a clear edge for a home victory, reflected in the 63% home win probability. The model’s pick is a home win, and the expected total of 3.8 goals aligns with the 3-goal total most likely, though the single most probable scoreline is 2-1 with a 9.1% chance. Flora’s home form shows 2.0 goals scored and 1.38 conceded against similar opposition, while FCI Levadia II’s away record shows 1.43 goals scored and 2.64 conceded, underscoring the home side’s advantage. The probabilities for the match outcome are 63% home win, 19% draw, and 17% away win. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 with an 89.9% probability and Over 2.5 with a 73.0% probability. The model’s selection for the match result remains the home win, supported by Flora’s stronger home form and the weaker away defense of FCI Levadia II.

Results analysis

Flora II’s victory over FCI Levadia II, 2-0, extended their winning run, confirming the model’s prediction that the home side would triumph. The pre-match favourite was Home win with a 63% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model also called Over 1.5 goals with an 89.9% probability, which hit, while Over 2.5 goals at 73.0% missed. The most likely scoreline was 2-1 at 9.1%, but Flora’s 2-0 result was a clean win. The match’s total of two goals fell short of the expected 3.8 and the most likely total of three. Overall, the model’s selections performed well, delivering an accurate outcome and a solid over-1.5 hit.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Flora II win✓ Hit
63.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II win✗ Miss
17.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-641W41W20W11D61W23L14L12L42W01LH·VII15/09A·JK 19/09H·ELV22/09A·FC 28/09H·TAL06/10A·VII19/10A·LAA24/10H·PAI29/10A·FCI02/11H·TAR10/11
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.731.632.331.403.131.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)2.471.652.001.382.891.89
vs Weaker (13)3.081.622.711.433.501.83
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W10W01L43W15L23L00D23L24L13LA·FC 15/09H·TAR19/09A·VII23/09H·LAA28/09A·PAI07/10H·FC 20/10H·ELV24/10A·JK 28/10H·FLO02/11A·TAL10/11
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.632.171.791.711.502.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.622.231.831.751.432.64
vs Weaker (4)1.751.751.501.502.002.00
Clean sheet %10% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%21%3%07%117%221%319%415%518%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.9%
Under 1.5
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
73.0%
Under 2.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.5%
Under 3.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.1%
No
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.1%
1-1
8.0%
3-1
7.6%
2-0 ✓
7.1%
3-0
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
1-0
4.9%
3-2
4.9%
Flora II goals ↓
FCI Levadia II goals →
01234
03.0%2.2%1.9%0.8%0.3%
14.9%8.0%4.7%2.0%0.6%
27.1%9.1%5.9%2.5%0.8%
35.9%7.6%4.9%2.1%0.7%
43.7%4.8%3.1%1.3%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = FCI Levadia II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.56
Viimsi
2.17
Tartu Welco
1.75
Elva
1.61
Flora II
1.33
Nõmme Kalju II
1.25
FCI Levadia II
1.25
FC Tallinn
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tallinna Kalev II
0.75
Luunja
0.28
Flora II is 0.08 points better than FCI Levadia II in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.47
Viimsi
2.31
Tartu Welco
2.11
Elva
1.72
FCI Levadia II
1.72
Flora II
1.69
FC Tallinn
1.66
Nõmme Kalju II
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
1.47
Luunja
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Flora II is 0.03 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.72).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nõmme United
0.75
Viimsi
0.75
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.56
Flora II
1.56
Elva
1.64
FCI Levadia II
1.86
FC Tallinn
2.03
Nõmme Kalju II
2.19
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Luunja
3.81
Flora II is 0.31 goals better than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Flora IIFlora II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W20W00D10W20W01L12L00D32W00DH·VII15/09A·JK 19/09H·ELV22/09A·FC 28/09H·TAL06/10A·VII19/10A·LAA24/10H·PAI29/10A·FCI02/11H·TAR10/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.600.930.401.270.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.000.650.750.381.220.89
vs Weaker (13)1.230.541.140.431.330.67
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D00D20W14L22D00D11D23L11DA·FC 15/09H·TAR19/09A·VII23/09H·LAA28/09A·PAI07/10H·FC 20/10H·ELV24/10A·JK 28/10H·FLO02/11A·TAL10/11
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.071.140.710.691.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.851.151.170.750.571.50
vs Weaker (4)1.250.501.000.501.500.50
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Flora IIFlora II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W21W20W01L41W22D02L12L10W01LH·VII15/09A·JK 19/09H·ELV22/09A·FC 28/09H·TAL06/10A·VII19/10A·LAA24/10H·PAI29/10A·FCI02/11H·TAR10/11
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.031.401.001.871.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.471.001.251.001.671.00
vs Weaker (13)1.851.081.571.002.171.17
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W01L23L01L01L00D12L01L02LA·FC 15/09H·TAR19/09A·VII23/09H·LAA28/09A·PAI07/10H·FC 20/10H·ELV24/10A·JK 28/10H·FLO02/11A·TAL10/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.100.641.000.811.19
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.771.080.671.000.861.14
vs Weaker (4)0.501.250.501.000.501.50
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.589.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.573.0%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
6
FI wins
1
Draws
1
FLI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Flora II vs FCI Levadia II · H/A from FI
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/24AFCI Levadia II Vs FI2-4
21/08/24HFI Vs FCI Levadia II4-1
30/06/24AFCI Levadia II Vs FI1-3
30/03/24HFI Vs FCI Levadia II3-1
05/10/23HFI Vs FCI Levadia II3-1
13/08/23AFCI Levadia II Vs FI0-0
31/07/23HFI Vs FCI Levadia II0-2
08/06/23AFCI Levadia II Vs FI1-2

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/11/24HFI Vs Tartu Welco0-1
02/11/24AFCI Levadia II Vs FI2-4
29/10/24HFI Vs Paide II1-2
24/10/24ALaagri Vs FI4-1
19/10/24AViimsi Vs FI3-2
06/10/24HFI Vs Tallinna Kalev II6-1
28/09/24AFC Tallinn Vs FI1-1
22/09/24HFI Vs Elva2-0
19/09/24AJK Tabasalu Vs FI1-4
15/09/24HFI Vs Viimsi4-1

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/11/24ATallinna Kalev II Vs FLI3-1
02/11/24HFLI Vs Flora II2-4
28/10/24AJK Tabasalu Vs FLI3-2
24/10/24HFLI Vs Elva0-0
20/10/24HFLI Vs FC Tallinn2-3
07/10/24APaide II Vs FLI5-1
28/09/24HFLI Vs Laagri4-3
23/09/24AViimsi Vs FLI1-0
19/09/24HFLI Vs Tartu Welco1-0
15/09/24AFC Tallinn Vs FLI1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.82
HomeWWWLL1.88
AwayWDLLW1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%60%52%
AVG goals4.163.804.52
Over 1.5 %96%96%96%
Over 2.5 %74%72%76%
Over 3.5 %66%56%76%
Scored2.642.562.72
Conceded1.521.241.80
BTTS70%60%80%
Clean Sheet20%32%8%
Corners---
Cards---
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.22
HomeWWLDL1.44
AwayWLLLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%40%28%
AVG goals3.303.123.48
Over 1.5 %84%80%88%
Over 2.5 %72%76%68%
Over 3.5 %44%36%52%
Scored1.541.721.36
Conceded1.761.402.12
BTTS62%52%72%
Clean Sheet24%36%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3692
83%
2.6
12527+98
4.2
92%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.50.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3678
67%
2.2
8327+56
3.1
81%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.8
-
3Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3663
50%
1.8
7656+20
3.7
86%
72%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.6
-
4ElvaElva3658
47%
1.6
6259+3
3.4
86%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
5Flora IIFlora II3648
36%
1.3
6156+5
3.2
83%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
6FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3645
33%
1.2
6267-5
3.6
89%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
7Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II3645
36%
1.2
5679-23
3.8
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn3842
29%
1.1
6377-14
3.7
89%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
9Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3627
14%
0.8
5396-43
4.1
94%
81%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.7
-
10LuunjaLuunja3610
8%
0.3
40137-97
4.9
89%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.8
-
11PhoenixPhoenix22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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