Flora II, fresh from a 5-0 victory, will look to keep the high-scoring trend alive as the model projects a 52% chance of a home win, 23% for a draw and 25% for an away win, making a home win the clear favourite. The expected total of 3.5 goals points to an open game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.8% probability. Flora’s home form shows 1.5 goals scored and 1.38 conceded against similar opposition, while FCI Levadia II’s away record against comparable teams yields 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s only suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 87.3% chance of hitting. These figures paint a picture of an attacking contest where Flora’s recent confidence and Levadia’s defensive frailties could clash, but the odds favour Flora to secure the win.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Flora II, the pre-match favourite with a 52% chance of victory, fell short, losing 0-4 to FCI Levadia II. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result was an away win. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, with an 87.3% probability, hit as the match produced four goals. The most likely scoreline had been 2-1, but the game ended 0-4, a stark deviation. Flora’s recent form, noted as a win, had suggested a positive run, yet the away side, coming off a defeat, dominated. The model’s predicted total of 3.5 goals was far from the actual tally.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flora II win✗ Miss
51.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II win✓ Hit
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flora II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.57
2.29
1.29
1.19
1.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.70
1.50
1.38
1.08
1.92
vs Weaker (10)
2.60
1.30
3.33
1.17
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCI Levadia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.97
2.07
2.00
1.40
1.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.25
2.12
1.50
2.25
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (6)
3.67
1.33
4.33
1.00
3.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.3%
Under 1.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.9%
Under 2.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.3%
Under 3.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.3%
No
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.3%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
6.4%
1-0
5.4%
3-2
4.6%
Flora II goals ↓
FCI Levadia II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
3.4%
3.1%
1.5%
0.5%
1
5.4%
9.8%
6.4%
3.0%
1.1%
2
6.5%
9.3%
6.6%
3.1%
1.1%
3
4.5%
6.4%
4.6%
2.2%
0.8%
4
2.3%
3.3%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = FCI Levadia II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
Viimsi
1.78
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.00
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Flora II is 0.51 points worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.78).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.44
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.75
Flora II is 0.29 goals worse than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.25
Viimsi
1.33
Flora II
1.36
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Flora II is 0.75 goals better than FCI Levadia II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 2.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flora II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
1.00
0.64
0.69
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
1.00
0.88
0.88
0.50
1.08
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.30
1.17
0.33
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCI Levadia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.97
1.07
0.93
1.13
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.83
1.04
0.83
1.00
0.83
1.08
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
0.67
2.00
0.67
2.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flora II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
1.29
0.64
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.70
0.62
0.50
0.58
0.83
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
1.00
2.17
0.83
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FCI Levadia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.00
1.00
1.07
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.42
1.08
0.67
1.25
0.17
0.92
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.67
2.33
0.33
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Maardu
Viimsi
Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II
Nõmme Kalju II