Flora II welcomes Nömme Kalju II to their home turf in the Estonia: Esiliiga A, and the numbers suggest a high-scoring encounter. The home side has been conceding an average of 1.75 goals per match at home, while scoring 2.0 goals against weaker opponents. In contrast, Nömme Kalju II has been scoring 1.33 goals away from home against stronger opponents, but conceding an average of 1.89 goals.
The model predicts a home win, with a probability of 44%, while the draw is seen as 23% likely, and an away win 33% likely. The expected total number of goals is 3.7, and the most likely total number of goals is 3. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 9.3%. Notably, Flora II has been coming off a defeat, while Nömme Kalju II has suffered three consecutive defeats.
The model's selection is the home win, and it also suggests Over 1.5 with a 89.2% probability, BTTS Yes with a 71.5% probability, and Over 2.5 with a 71.4% probability. The home win percentage is 44%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 33%.
Results analysis
The win extends Flora II's run, coming off a 3-0 victory over Nõmme Kalju II. The final score was 3-0, with Flora II securing a home win. The model's call of a home win was correct, with a pre-match probability of 44%. The model's selection, a home win, proved to be the actual result.
The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a pre-match probability of 89.2%. Over 2.5 goals also hit, with a pre-match probability of 71.4%. However, the model's selection of BTTS Yes, with a pre-match probability of 71.5%, missed.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flora II win✓ Hit
43.7%
Avg Implied 61.1% · @ 1.48
Edge
-17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.49
Dafabet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Draw✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied 19.0% · @ 4.74
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.80
Dafabet
4.80
1xBet
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Nõmme Kalju II win✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied 19.9% · @ 4.53
Edge
+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.11
Marathonbet
4.95
Betfair
4.75
Dafabet
4.50
Superbet
4.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flora II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.77
1.58
1.83
1.78
1.72
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.11
2.11
1.44
1.89
0.80
2.30
vs Weaker (11)
2.73
1.18
2.00
1.67
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
2.27
1.76
2.29
1.54
2.23
vs Stronger (11)
1.36
2.73
1.33
3.00
1.40
2.40
vs Similar (16)
1.44
2.25
1.67
2.22
1.14
2.29
vs Weaker (3)
4.00
0.67
3.50
0.50
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.2%
@ 1.04-1.6%
Under 1.5
10.8%
@ 10.25+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Under
Betfair
11.00
1xBet
9.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
71.4%
@ 1.15-7.6%
Under 2.5
28.6%
@ 4.30+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.11
Under
Betfair
4.80
Unibet
4.30
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.5%
@ 1.47-11.4%
Under 3.5
49.5%
@ 2.39+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Superbet
1.47
Betfair
1.47
Under
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.45
Superbet
2.42
Pinnacle
2.30
Marathonbet
2.28
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
71.5%
@ 1.26-1.5%
No
28.5%
@ 3.41+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
No
Betfair
3.70
Superbet
3.45
1xBet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.3%@ 11.00+5.6%
2-1
8.4%@ 8.17+3.5%
1-2
7.2%@ 13.67+4.3%
2-2
7.2%@ 9.67+3.0%
3-1
5.5%@ 8.67+0.9%
2-0
4.9%@ 12.00+1.5%
3-2
4.7%@ 10.33+0.9%
1-3
4.1%@ 26.00+2.6%
Flora II goals ↓
Nõmme Kalju II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
3.4%
3.7%
2.1%
0.9%
1
4.1%
9.3%
7.2%
4.1%
1.8%
2
4.9%
8.4%
7.2%
4.1%
1.8%
3
3.2%
5.5%
4.7%
2.7%
1.2%
4
1.6%
2.7%
2.3%
1.3%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = Nõmme Kalju II goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Flora II is 0.77 points better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Flora II is 0.92 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 0.90).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Flora II is 1.34 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 2.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flora II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.80
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.58
1.11
0.78
0.89
0.40
1.30
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
0.27
0.67
0.33
1.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
0.82
0.82
1.00
0.69
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.09
0.17
1.00
1.00
1.20
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.69
1.00
0.89
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flora II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
0.83
1.08
0.78
0.89
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.53
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.91
1.33
1.33
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme Kalju II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.50
0.94
1.47
0.54
1.54
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
1.64
1.17
2.00
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (16)
0.62
1.56
0.67
1.33
0.57
1.86
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.2%
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
-1.6%
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
71.5%
1.26
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
-
-1.5%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
71.4%
1.15
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.11
-
-7.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elva
Maardu
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Tallinna Kalev
Tartu Welco
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II