Flora II’s attacking potency, averaging 2.8 goals per home match against weaker opposition, sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter, while Nõmme United II’s defensive frailties - four goals conceded on the road to stronger teams - signal a vulnerable side. The model predicts a home win, with a 58% chance, a 21% draw probability, and a 21% chance of an away victory. The expected total of 3.7 goals points to a lively game, and the most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Flora II, a 9.1% probability. Recent form underlines the narrative: Flora II return from a 5-0 triumph, whereas Nõmme United II are still recovering from two consecutive defeats. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 96.3%, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.7%, Under 6.5 at 91.6%, Home +2 handicap at 90.6%, Home over 0.5 goals at 90.3%, Over 1.5 at 89.4%, Away under 2.5 goals at 83.5%, and Under 5.5 at 82.6%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flora II win
57.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II win
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flora II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.53
2.08
1.77
1.82
1.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.94
1.62
2.25
0.80
1.70
vs Weaker (12)
3.08
0.92
2.80
1.00
3.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.78
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.00
0.80
1.60
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (3)
1.33
1.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
11% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.4%
Under 1.5
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.9%
Under 2.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.2%
Under 3.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
68.7%
No
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.1%
1-1
8.6%
3-1
7.1%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
5.1%
3-2
5.0%
Flora II goals ↓
Nõmme United II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
2.6%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
1
4.8%
8.6%
5.4%
2.5%
0.9%
2
6.6%
9.1%
6.4%
3.0%
1.0%
3
5.1%
7.1%
5.0%
2.3%
0.8%
4
3.0%
4.2%
2.9%
1.3%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = Nõmme United II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Flora II is 0.38 points better than Nõmme United II in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Flora II is 0.82 goals better than Nõmme United II in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Flora II is 0.41 goals better than Nõmme United II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Flora II or Draw
78.7%
Avg Implied -
58%
21%
21%
covers Flora II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora II or Nõmme United II
79.0%
Avg Implied -
58%
21%
21%
covers Flora II + Nõmme United II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nõmme United II
42.2%
Avg Implied -
58%
21%
21%
covers Draw + Nõmme United II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Flora II over/under 0.5
Over
90.3%
Under
9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5
Over
67.8%
Under
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5
Over
41.4%
Under
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 3.5
Over
20.8%
Under
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5
Over
40.6%
Under
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Flora II, so a minus line means Flora II give that many goals of a start and Nõmme United II receive them. At -1, Flora II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Flora II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Flora II)
Flora II -2
20.0%
Draw -2
17.3%
Nõmme United II +2
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Flora II)
Flora II -1
37.3%
Draw -1
20.5%
Nõmme United II +1
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Flora II)
Flora II +1
78.7%
Draw +1
11.9%
Nõmme United II -1
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Flora II)
Flora II +2
90.6%
Draw +2
6.1%
Nõmme United II -2
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flora II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.08
0.69
1.00
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.89
0.75
1.00
0.30
0.80
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
0.17
1.60
0.20
2.00
0.14
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.11
0.78
0.00
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.80
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flora II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.93
1.00
1.08
0.82
0.82
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.67
1.06
0.88
1.25
0.50
0.90
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
0.75
1.20
0.80
1.29
0.71
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.33
0.80
0.80
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
56% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →