Flora II’s recent form shows a win-draw-win-loss-win pattern, but they just came off a 5-0 victory, suggesting a burst of confidence at home. Tartu Welco, however, finished last week with a 1-3 loss, hinting at a shaky start on the road. The model predicts an away win with a 41% chance, a draw at 22%, and a home win at 36%. The expected total is 3.9 goals, with the most likely total being 6 or more at 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 8.4% probability. In the matchup, Flora II averages 1.67 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against similar opponents, while Tartu Welco averages 2.5 scored and 1.7 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (95.4%), Over 1.5 (90.9%), Under 6.5 (89.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.5%), Away over 0.5 goals (86.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (85.4%), Home over 0.5 goals (85.0%), and Away +2 handicap (80.2%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flora II win
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco win
41.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flora II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.53
2.08
1.77
1.82
1.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.94
1.62
2.25
0.80
1.70
vs Weaker (12)
3.08
0.92
2.80
1.00
3.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.63
1.70
2.43
1.64
2.81
1.75
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
-
-
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (20)
2.60
1.65
2.27
1.73
3.00
1.56
vs Weaker (9)
2.89
1.44
3.00
1.33
2.83
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.9%
Under 1.5
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
74.9%
Under 2.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
54.9%
Under 3.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
74.4%
No
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.4%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
7.3%
2-1
7.3%
1-3
5.2%
2-3
4.9%
3-2
4.6%
3-1
4.6%
Flora II goals ↓
Tartu Welco goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.8%
3.3%
4.1%
2.7%
1.4%
1
3.0%
8.4%
7.7%
5.2%
2.6%
2
3.6%
7.3%
7.3%
4.9%
2.5%
3
2.3%
4.6%
4.6%
3.1%
1.6%
4
1.1%
2.2%
2.2%
1.5%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = Tartu Welco goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Flora II is 0.23 points worse than Tartu Welco in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Flora II is 0.81 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 2.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Flora II is 0.51 goals better than Tartu Welco in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Flora II or Draw
58.9%
Avg Implied -
36%
22%
41%
covers Flora II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora II or Tartu Welco
77.6%
Avg Implied -
36%
22%
41%
covers Flora II + Tartu Welco
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tartu Welco
63.5%
Avg Implied -
36%
22%
41%
covers Draw + Tartu Welco
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Flora II over/under 0.5
Over
85.0%
Under
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5
Over
56.6%
Under
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5
Over
29.6%
Under
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 3.5
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5
Over
86.7%
Under
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5
Over
59.8%
Under
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 3.5
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Flora II, so a minus line means Flora II give that many goals of a start and Tartu Welco receive them. At -1, Flora II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Flora II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Flora II)
Flora II -2
8.8%
Draw -2
11.0%
Tartu Welco +2
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Flora II)
Flora II -1
19.8%
Draw -1
16.7%
Tartu Welco +1
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Flora II)
Flora II +1
58.9%
Draw +1
17.8%
Tartu Welco -1
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Flora II)
Flora II +2
76.7%
Draw +2
12.4%
Tartu Welco -2
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flora II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.08
0.69
1.00
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.89
0.75
1.00
0.30
0.80
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
0.17
1.60
0.20
2.00
0.14
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.07
1.00
1.00
1.31
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.10
1.00
1.00
1.56
1.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.78
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flora II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.93
1.00
1.08
0.82
0.82
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.67
1.06
0.88
1.25
0.50
0.90
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
0.75
1.20
0.80
1.29
0.71
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.63
1.43
0.64
1.50
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.35
0.55
1.27
0.73
1.44
0.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
0.67
2.00
0.33
1.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
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Elva
Maardu
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Tallinna Kalev
FC Tallinn
Nõmme United II
Nõmme Kalju II