Flora II’s recent 5-0 demolition of Tallinna Kalev signals an attacking surge that the model projects into a high-scoring affair. The expected 4.4 goals and a 28% chance of 6 or more goals underline the offensive firepower on both sides. The most likely scoreline, 2-2, carries a 7.2% probability, reflecting the balanced yet prolific nature of the contest. Home form shows Flora II scoring 2.14 and conceding 2.0 goals against similar opposition, while Viimsi averages 1.67 scored and 2.33 conceded on the road. The model favours a home win, with 42% confidence, followed by a 21% draw and a 37% away win. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 at 93.9%, Over 2.5 at 81.3%, and BTTS Yes at 79.4%. The match is set to be a showcase of attacking intent from both sides.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Flora II secured a 3-1 home win, extending their recent winning streak. The pre-match favourite was Home win with a 42% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selections also hit: Over 1.5 goals (93.9% probability) came through, Over 2.5 goals (81.3%) also hit, and BTTS Yes (79.4%) was fulfilled. All figures appear once, and the final score of 3-1 matches the actual result. Flora’s form, coming off a 5-0 victory, and Viimsi’s two-game winning run set the stage for a decisive home triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flora II win✓ Hit
41.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Viimsi win✗ Miss
37.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flora II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.60
1.57
3.33
1.87
1.87
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.79
1.50
2.14
2.00
1.43
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
3.31
1.62
4.38
1.75
2.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.93
1.76
0.47
2.31
1.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.11
1.33
0.50
1.67
2.33
vs Weaker (21)
2.24
0.86
2.00
0.45
2.50
1.30
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.9%
Under 1.5
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
81.3%
Under 2.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.7%
Under 3.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
79.4%
No
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-2
7.2%
2-1
6.7%
1-1
6.6%
1-2
6.4%
3-2
5.4%
2-3
5.1%
3-1 ✓
5.1%
1-3
4.6%
Flora II goals ↓
Viimsi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.9%
2.1%
2.8%
2.0%
1.1%
1
2.2%
6.6%
6.4%
4.6%
2.4%
2
3.2%
6.7%
7.2%
5.1%
2.7%
3
2.4%
5.1%
5.4%
3.8%
2.0%
4
1.3%
2.8%
3.0%
2.2%
1.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = Viimsi goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nõmme United
2.50
Viimsi
1.97
Flora II
1.92
FCI Levadia II
1.58
JK Tabasalu
1.53
FC Tallinn
1.44
Paide II
1.14
Elva
1.11
Tartu Kalev
1.00
Legion
0.58
K-Järve JK Järve
0.56
Flora II is 0.06 points worse than Viimsi in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.17
Flora II
2.39
JK Tabasalu
2.25
FC Tallinn
2.00
Viimsi
1.86
Paide II
1.83
FCI Levadia II
1.58
K-Järve JK Järve
1.39
Elva
1.21
Legion
1.03
Tartu Kalev
0.50
Flora II is 0.53 goals better than Viimsi in terms of goals scored per game (2.39 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tartu Kalev
0.50
Nõmme United
0.81
Viimsi
0.97
FCI Levadia II
1.28
Flora II
1.47
FC Tallinn
1.81
JK Tabasalu
1.94
Elva
2.00
Paide II
2.28
Legion
2.69
K-Järve JK Järve
3.42
Flora II is 0.50 goals worse than Viimsi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flora II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.67
1.73
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.64
1.86
0.71
0.14
0.57
vs Weaker (16)
1.38
0.69
1.62
0.62
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
0.94
0.24
0.92
0.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.78
0.67
0.33
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
0.43
1.09
0.18
1.00
0.70
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flora II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.90
1.60
1.20
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.86
0.29
1.29
1.29
0.43
vs Weaker (16)
1.94
0.94
2.75
1.12
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.40
0.82
0.24
1.38
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.33
0.67
0.17
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (21)
1.19
0.43
0.91
0.27
1.50
0.60
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Nõmme United
FCI Levadia II
JK Tabasalu
FC Tallinn
Elva
Paide II
Legion
K-Järve JK Järve
Tartu Kalev