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Flora II vs Viimsi Result & Analysis

Date: 19/04/2024
Time: 16:00
Final 1-3
Flora II
Flora II
Vs
45%
25%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Viimsi
Viimsi
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Flora II’s recent win and Viimsi’s two-game winning streak set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model predicting 3.3 goals on average. The most likely total is three goals, and the single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying an 11.1% chance. The forecast favours a home win, with a 45% chance for Flora II, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 30% chance of an away win. Flora II typically scores 1.8 goals and concedes 1.2 at home against similarly strong opponents, while Viimsi averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded on the road versus comparable teams. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, has an 84.5% probability of hitting. These figures paint a picture of an open game where both sides are likely to find the net.

Results analysis

Flora II’s home form, still buoyed by a recent win, had the team looking poised, yet the match turned out to be a shock. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 45% probability, but the final score of 1-3 gave Viimsi an away win, so the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.5% probability, hit as the match produced four goals. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 fell short, and the expected total of 3.3 goals was exceeded. Viimsi’s strong away form, highlighted by a two-game winning run, proved decisive.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Flora II win✗ Miss
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Viimsi win✓ Hit
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L23L23L60W20W20W02L31W31W42WH·PAI29/10A·VII02/11A·NÕM06/11H·K-J12/11H·PAI02/03H·ELV09/03A·LAA17/03H·FCI30/03A·TAL08/04A·FC 13/04
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.401.302.401.202.401.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.891.331.801.202.001.50
vs Weaker (12)3.171.253.601.202.861.29
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ViimsiViimsi

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L13L05L11D22D02L22D22D10W11DA·PAI05/11H·FC 12/11H·TAM29/11A·TAM03/12A·LAA02/03A·FCI10/03A·TAL17/03H·FC 30/03A·TAR07/04H·ELV14/04← MeistriliigaEsiliiga A →
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.171.461.461.650.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.800.802.500.751.330.83
vs Weaker (20)1.451.351.001.781.821.00
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.5%
Under 1.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.1%
Under 2.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.9%
Under 3.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.9%
No
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.3%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.3%
1-0
6.0%
3-1
5.5%
0-0
4.9%
Flora II goals ↓
Viimsi goals →
01234
04.9%4.6%4.0%2.0%0.7%
16.0%11%7.3%3.5%1.3%
26.3%9.1%6.6%3.2%1.1%
33.8%5.5%4.0%1.9%0.7%
41.7%2.5%1.8%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = Viimsi goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.17
Viimsi
2.08
Flora II
1.83
Tartu Welco
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.47
Elva
1.24
FCI Levadia II
1.22
Tallinna Kalev II
1.17
Paide II
0.69
JK Tabasalu
0.44
Legion
0.00
Flora II is 0.25 points worse than Viimsi in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 2.08).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
3.06
Flora II
2.67
Viimsi
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Tartu Welco
1.94
FC Tallinn
1.86
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Elva
1.47
Paide II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
0.97
Legion
0.00
Flora II is 0.58 goals better than Viimsi in terms of goals scored per game (2.67 vs 2.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laagri
1.17
Viimsi
1.17
Tartu Welco
1.22
FC Tallinn
1.50
Flora II
1.53
Elva
1.63
FCI Levadia II
1.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.42
JK Tabasalu
2.81
Paide II
3.36
Legion
4.50
Flora II is 0.36 goals worse than Viimsi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Flora IIFlora II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L02L30W20W10W01L21W11D41WH·PAI29/10A·VII02/11A·NÕM06/11H·K-J12/11H·PAI02/03H·ELV09/03A·LAA17/03H·FCI30/03A·TAL08/04A·FC 13/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.771.070.671.070.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.000.830.900.801.120.88
vs Weaker (12)1.170.671.400.401.000.86
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ViimsiViimsi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L01L02L10W01L01L20W01L10W10WA·PAI05/11H·FC 12/11H·TAM29/11A·TAM03/12A·LAA02/03A·FCI10/03A·TAL17/03H·FC 30/03A·TAR07/04H·ELV14/04← MeistriliigaEsiliiga A →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.470.690.461.000.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.100.301.000.001.170.50
vs Weaker (20)0.750.550.560.670.910.45
Clean sheet %63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Flora IIFlora II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D22D21W30W00D10W01L10W20W01LH·PAI29/10A·VII02/11A·NÕM06/11H·K-J12/11H·PAI02/03H·ELV09/03A·LAA17/03H·FCI30/03A·TAL08/04A·FC 13/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.531.330.531.330.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.890.500.900.400.880.62
vs Weaker (12)2.000.582.200.801.860.43
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ViimsiViimsi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L03L01L21W01L02L21W00D01LA·PAI05/11H·FC 12/11H·TAM29/11A·TAM03/12A·LAA02/03A·FCI10/03A·TAL17/03H·FC 30/03A·TAR07/04H·ELV14/04← MeistriliigaEsiliiga A →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.700.771.000.650.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.700.501.500.750.170.33
vs Weaker (20)0.700.800.441.110.910.55
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
FI wins
1
Draws
3
VII wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Flora II vs Viimsi · H/A from FI
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/23AViimsi Vs FI3-2
16/09/23HFI Vs Viimsi1-2
28/05/23HFI Vs Viimsi3-1
11/05/23AViimsi Vs FI0-0
08/10/22AViimsi Vs FI0-1
01/08/22HFI Vs Viimsi4-1
07/05/22AViimsi Vs FI2-1
03/03/22HFI Vs Viimsi2-1

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/24AFC Tallinn Vs FI2-4
08/04/24ATallinna Kalev II Vs FI1-3
30/03/24HFI Vs FCI Levadia II3-1
17/03/24ALaagri Vs FI2-0
09/03/24HFI Vs Elva2-0
02/03/24HFI Vs Paide II2-0
12/11/23HFI Vs K-Järve JK Järve6-0
06/11/23ANõmme United Vs FI3-2
02/11/23AViimsi Vs FI3-2
29/10/23HFI Vs Paide II1-2

ViimsiViimsi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/24HVII Vs Elva1-1
07/04/24ATartu Welco Vs VII0-1
30/03/24HVII Vs FC Tallinn2-2
17/03/24ATallinna Kalev II Vs VII2-2
10/03/24AFCI Levadia II Vs VII2-0
02/03/24ALaagri Vs VII2-2
03/12/23ATammeka Vs VII1-1
29/11/23HVII Vs Tammeka0-5
12/11/23HVII Vs FC Tallinn1-3
05/11/23APaide II Vs VII3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.90
HomeLWWWW2.00
AwayLLLWW1.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%64%56%
AVG goals3.844.403.28
Over 1.5 %88%96%80%
Over 2.5 %70%76%64%
Over 3.5 %50%48%52%
Scored2.422.802.04
Conceded1.421.601.24
BTTS60%68%52%
Clean Sheet30%24%36%
Corners---
Cards---
Viimsi
Viimsi
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWD1.88
HomeWLLDD1.79
AwayDDLDW1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%50%58%
AVG goals3.002.673.31
Over 1.5 %74%71%77%
Over 2.5 %56%42%69%
Over 3.5 %44%38%50%
Scored1.921.672.15
Conceded1.081.001.15
BTTS52%42%62%
Clean Sheet38%42%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3678
61%
2.2
11042+68
4.2
89%
69%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.2
-
2ViimsiViimsi3675
61%
2.1
7542+33
3.2
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
3Flora IIFlora II3666
56%
1.8
9655+41
4.2
97%
72%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.5
-
4Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3660
44%
1.7
7044+26
3.2
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
5FC TallinnFC Tallinn3653
42%
1.5
6754+13
3.4
83%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
6ElvaElva3847
32%
1.2
5662-6
3.1
79%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3644
36%
1.2
6071-11
3.6
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
8Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3642
31%
1.2
7287-15
4.4
94%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.4
-
9Paide IIPaide II3625
19%
0.7
47121-74
4.7
89%
86%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.4
-
10JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3616
11%
0.4
35101-66
3.8
86%
78%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.8
-
11LegionLegion20
0%
0.0
09-9
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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