Flora II’s recent win and Viimsi’s two-game winning streak set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model predicting 3.3 goals on average. The most likely total is three goals, and the single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying an 11.1% chance. The forecast favours a home win, with a 45% chance for Flora II, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 30% chance of an away win. Flora II typically scores 1.8 goals and concedes 1.2 at home against similarly strong opponents, while Viimsi averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded on the road versus comparable teams. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, has an 84.5% probability of hitting. These figures paint a picture of an open game where both sides are likely to find the net.
Results analysis
Flora II’s home form, still buoyed by a recent win, had the team looking poised, yet the match turned out to be a shock. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 45% probability, but the final score of 1-3 gave Viimsi an away win, so the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.5% probability, hit as the match produced four goals. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 fell short, and the expected total of 3.3 goals was exceeded. Viimsi’s strong away form, highlighted by a two-game winning run, proved decisive.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flora II win✗ Miss
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Viimsi win✓ Hit
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flora II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.40
1.30
2.40
1.20
2.40
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.89
1.33
1.80
1.20
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (12)
3.17
1.25
3.60
1.20
2.86
1.29
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.17
1.46
1.46
1.65
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.80
0.80
2.50
0.75
1.33
0.83
vs Weaker (20)
1.45
1.35
1.00
1.78
1.82
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.5%
Under 1.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.1%
Under 2.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.9%
Under 3.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.9%
No
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.3%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.3%
1-0
6.0%
3-1
5.5%
0-0
4.9%
Flora II goals ↓
Viimsi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
4.6%
4.0%
2.0%
0.7%
1
6.0%
11%
7.3%
3.5%
1.3%
2
6.3%
9.1%
6.6%
3.2%
1.1%
3
3.8%
5.5%
4.0%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.7%
2.5%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = Viimsi goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Laagri
2.17
Viimsi
2.08
Flora II
1.83
Tartu Welco
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.47
Elva
1.24
FCI Levadia II
1.22
Tallinna Kalev II
1.17
Paide II
0.69
JK Tabasalu
0.44
Legion
0.00
Flora II is 0.25 points worse than Viimsi in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 2.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Laagri
3.06
Flora II
2.67
Viimsi
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Tartu Welco
1.94
FC Tallinn
1.86
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Elva
1.47
Paide II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
0.97
Legion
0.00
Flora II is 0.58 goals better than Viimsi in terms of goals scored per game (2.67 vs 2.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Laagri
1.17
Viimsi
1.17
Tartu Welco
1.22
FC Tallinn
1.50
Flora II
1.53
Elva
1.63
FCI Levadia II
1.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.42
JK Tabasalu
2.81
Paide II
3.36
Legion
4.50
Flora II is 0.36 goals worse than Viimsi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flora II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.77
1.07
0.67
1.07
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.83
0.90
0.80
1.12
0.88
vs Weaker (12)
1.17
0.67
1.40
0.40
1.00
0.86
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.69
0.46
1.00
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.30
1.00
0.00
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.55
0.56
0.67
0.91
0.45
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flora II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.53
1.33
0.53
1.33
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.50
0.90
0.40
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (12)
2.00
0.58
2.20
0.80
1.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.77
1.00
0.65
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.50
1.50
0.75
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (20)
0.70
0.80
0.44
1.11
0.91
0.55
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →