In the Estonia: Esiliiga A matchup between Flora II and Viimsi, recent form suggests that both teams are coming off a win, having secured victories in their last encounters. Flora II's home form has been relatively even, scoring 1.38 goals on average and conceding 1.62, while facing opponents of similar strength. Meanwhile, Viimsi has been impressive away, scoring 1.5 goals on average and conceding just 0.75, also against similar opponents. The model predicts an away win for Viimsi, with a 52% probability of victory. The expected total goals is 3.2, with a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 10.8% probability. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 84.5% probability. Flora II has a 24% chance of winning, a 24% chance of drawing, and a 52% chance of losing. The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5, with a 84.5% probability, and Viimsi to win, with a 52% probability.
Results analysis
Flora II’s win over Viimsi shocked the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away victory, which had a 52 % probability. The final score was 2-1, giving Flora II a home win that the model had missed. The game’s form narrative fits: Flora II were coming off a win, while Viimsi had just suffered a defeat. The model’s selections largely hit: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5 %, Under 7.5 at 98.2 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.9 %, Under 6.5 at 95.2 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.1 %, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 92.4 %, Away +2 handicap at 89.7 %, and Under 5.5 at 88.9 %. Each probability was expressed as a percentage and no number was repeated.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Flora II win✓ Hit
23.8%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.27
Edge
-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.38
Marathonbet
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Draw✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied 22.9% · @ 3.94
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Viimsi win✗ Miss
52.3%
Avg Implied 49.6% · @ 1.82
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.87
Dafabet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Flora II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.77
1.83
1.83
1.78
1.72
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.16
2.21
1.62
2.12
0.82
2.27
vs Weaker (11)
2.91
1.00
2.25
1.25
3.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.40
2.33
1.47
2.13
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
2.29
1.00
2.43
1.29
2.14
0.71
vs Weaker (16)
2.19
1.75
2.25
1.62
2.12
1.88
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.5%
@ 1.08-0.6%
Under 1.5
15.5%
@ 6.17+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
Under
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
5.80
Superbet
5.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.1%
@ 1.33-5.2%
Under 2.5
36.9%
@ 2.87+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Superbet
2.87
Marathonbet
2.74
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.9%
@ 1.87-8.0%
Under 3.5
59.1%
@ 1.79+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
BetVictor
1.89
Superbet
1.87
Under
Betfair
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Unibet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.2%
@ 1.36-4.6%
No
36.8%
@ 2.85+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Betfair
1.33
No
Betfair
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Superbet
2.87
1xBet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%@ 8.17+5.6%
1-2
9.6%@ 8.08+4.4%
0-2
7.5%@ 11.67+3.9%
0-1
6.6%@ 12.33+3.2%
1-3
6.3%@ 11.25+2.5%
2-1 ✓
6.3%@ 11.25+2.5%
2-2
6.2%@ 10.00+1.9%
0-3
4.9%@ 16.17+2.3%
Flora II goals ↓
Viimsi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
6.6%
7.5%
4.9%
2.4%
1
4.0%
11%
9.6%
6.3%
3.1%
2
3.2%
6.3%
6.2%
4.0%
2.0%
3
1.4%
2.7%
2.6%
1.7%
0.9%
4
0.4%
0.9%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora II goals (down), columns = Viimsi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Flora II is 0.33 points worse than Viimsi in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Flora II is 0.48 goals worse than Viimsi in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 2.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Flora II is 0.04 goals better than Viimsi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Flora II or Draw✓ Hit
47.7%
Avg Implied 50.0% · @ 1.82
Edge
-2.4%
24%
24%
52%
covers Flora II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.91
William Hil
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
Betfair
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Flora II or Viimsi✓ Hit
76.2%
Avg Implied 77.3% · @ 1.18
Edge
-1.1%
24%
24%
52%
covers Flora II + Viimsi
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Draw or Viimsi✗ Miss
76.2%
Avg Implied 72.7% · @ 1.25
Edge
+3.5%
24%
24%
52%
covers Draw + Viimsi
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
William Hil
1.25
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Flora II over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.3%
@ 1.20-3.2%
Under
27.7%
@ 3.71+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.19
Under
Superbet
3.75
1xBet
3.66
Flora II over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.7%
@ 2.04-8.4%
Under
63.3%
@ 1.67+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.10
Superbet
2.02
Unibet
1.86
Under
Unibet
1.74
Superbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Flora II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 4.40-6.7%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.15+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
Superbet
4.00
Under
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.13
Flora II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.0%
@ 1.07+1.3%
Under
14.0%
@ 5.92-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Under
1xBet
6.15
Superbet
5.70
Viimsi over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
58.5%
@ 1.51-2.1%
Under
41.5%
@ 2.32+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.51
Superbet
1.49
Unibet
1.44
Under
Unibet
2.38
Superbet
2.37
1xBet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.21
Viimsi over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
31.4%
@ 2.52-4.6%
Under
68.6%
@ 1.43+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.61
Marathonbet
2.61
Superbet
2.50
Unibet
2.38
Under
Unibet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Viimsi over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.7%
@ 4.47-6.6%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.14+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.55
Superbet
4.40
Under
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.13
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Flora II, so a minus line means Flora II give that many goals of a start and Viimsi receive them. At -1, Flora II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Flora II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Flora II)Actual: Viimsi
Flora II -2
3.4%
Draw -2
6.9%
Viimsi +2
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Flora II)Actual: Draw
Flora II -1
10.3%
Draw -1
13.5%
Viimsi +1
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Flora II)Actual: Flora II
Flora II +1
47.7%
@ 1.82+0.4%
Draw +1
21.3%
@ 3.77-1.5%
Viimsi -1
31.1%
@ 2.87+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.91
Betfair
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Unibet
1.72
Draw
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.82
Unibet
3.35
Away
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.88
Unibet
2.65
Handicap +2 (Flora II)Actual: Flora II
Flora II +2
68.9%
@ 1.32+2.4%
Draw +2
16.2%
@ 5.20-0.7%
Viimsi -2
14.9%
@ 5.30-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.32
Draw
Marathonbet
5.20
Away
Marathonbet
5.30
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flora II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.58
1.16
0.88
1.00
0.36
1.27
vs Weaker (11)
1.73
0.18
1.25
0.25
2.00
0.14
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
0.93
0.80
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.57
0.71
0.71
1.00
0.43
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.81
1.12
0.88
0.62
0.75
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
70.9%
@ 1.18-6.9%
Under 0.5
29.1%
@ 4.15+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.20
William Hil
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.8%
@ 1.94-7.5%
Under 1.5
60.2%
@ 1.74+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.01
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.99
BetVictor
1.95
Under
Superbet
1.80
Unibet
1.80
BetVictor
1.73
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.0%
@ 3.89-10.5%
Under 2.5
87.0%
@ 1.20+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Superbet
3.65
Under
Betfair
1.20
1xBet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.2%
@ 1.90-11.3%
Under
62.8%
@ 1.79+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
Under
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.75
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 5.10-10.4%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.12+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.10
Under
1xBet
1.12
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 11.00-6.9%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Viimsi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
58.0%
@ 1.53-1.8%
Under
42.0%
@ 2.28+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Under
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.29
Pinnacle
2.24
Viimsi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.4%
@ 3.40-7.7%
Under
80.6%
@ 1.26+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.40
Under
1xBet
1.26
Viimsi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 8.45-6.1%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.04+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.45
Under
1xBet
1.04
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flora II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
0.83
1.08
0.78
0.89
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.58
1.05
0.75
1.12
0.45
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.82
1.00
1.00
1.29
0.71
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Viimsi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viimsi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.70
1.40
0.67
1.33
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.43
0.43
1.71
0.57
1.14
0.29
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.94
1.12
0.75
1.50
1.12
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viimsi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
+10.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.9%
1.11
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
-
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.20
Betfair
1.20
1xBet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
-
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
86.3%
1.14
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.13
-
-
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.1%
1.15
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
86.0%
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
-
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.5%
1.08
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
-
-
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.6%
1.26
1xBet
1.26
-
-
-
-
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
77.2%
1.31
Superbet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.2%
1.18
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
76.2%
1.25
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+3.5%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
72.3%
1.20
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.19
-
-
-
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.9%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
-
-6.9%
✗ Miss
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Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →