This opponent (Nõmme United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
4.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.77
0.70
4.07
0.53
3.47
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
3.70
0.74
4.08
0.58
3.27
0.91
vs Weaker (4)
6.50
0.50
5.50
0.50
7.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 5.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (51%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
98.1%
Under 1.5
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
92.7%
Under 2.5
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
82.8%
Under 3.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
86.2%
No
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-2
5.8%
3-1 ✓
5.4%
4-2
5.2%
4-1
4.9%
2-2
4.8%
2-1
4.4%
3-3
4.1%
5-2
3.8%
Flora Tallinn goals ↓
Nõmme United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0.6%
0.4%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
1
0.9%
2.7%
2.6%
1.9%
1.0%
2
2.1%
4.4%
4.8%
3.4%
1.8%
3
2.5%
5.4%
5.8%
4.1%
2.2%
4
2.3%
4.9%
5.2%
3.7%
2.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Flora Tallinn goals (down), columns = Nõmme United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kalju Nomme
2.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.60
Trans Narva
2.40
JK Tabasalu
2.25
Laagri
2.25
Vaprus
2.25
Tamper
2.25
Tallinna FC Zapoos
2.25
Tallinna Kalev
2.25
FC Tallinn
2.25
Kuressaare
2.25
Läänemaa Haapsalu
2.00
Helios
2.00
Phoenix
2.00
Paide
2.00
Tartu Kalev
2.00
Elva
2.00
Legion
1.75
Maksatransport
1.50
Kohtla-Järve
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Team Helm
1.50
Vastseliina
1.50
Tallinna Kalev II
1.50
Nõmme United
1.50
Tammeka
1.50
Hiiumaa
1.33
Tulevik
1.33
Flora II
1.33
KUBIK
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.00
TalTech
0.91
Laagri III
0.91
Flora IV
0.91
Rae Spordikool
0.91
Volta II / Arsenal
0.91
Keila
0.91
Joker
0.91
Kallaste United
0.91
Lootus Järve
0.91
Kompanii Marjamaa
0.50
Järva-Jaani
0.00
Kose II
0.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Saue
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Kose
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Hell Hunt
0.00
Raplamaa
0.00
Lootos
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Tallinna Kalev III
0.00
Smsraha
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Tallinna Wolves
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Eston Villa
0.00
Maardu Aliens
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Olympic
0.00
Kristiine JK
0.00
Poseidon
0.00
Rumori Calcio
0.00
Saku Sporting
0.00
Viimsi
0.00
Flora Tallinn
0.00
Flora Tallinn is 1.50 points worse than Nõmme United in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tammeka
12.50
Laagri
11.00
Vaprus
6.25
Kalju Nomme
6.00
Tallinna Kalev
5.50
Kuressaare
5.25
Elva
4.67
Nõmme United
4.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
4.40
Tartu Kalev
4.33
Tallinna Kalev II
4.00
Trans Narva
3.80
Läänemaa Haapsalu
3.67
Hiiumaa
3.00
KUBIK
3.00
Tabasalu Ulasabat
3.00
Vastseliina
3.00
JK Tabasalu
3.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
3.00
Helios
2.50
Team Helm
2.50
Legion
2.50
Phoenix
2.50
Tamper
2.50
TalTech
2.05
Laagri III
2.05
Flora IV
2.05
Rae Spordikool
2.05
Volta II / Arsenal
2.05
Keila
2.05
Joker
2.05
Kallaste United
2.05
Lootus Järve
2.05
Kohtla-Järve
2.00
FC Tallinn
1.75
Tulevik
1.67
Flora II
1.67
Maksatransport
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Paide
1.33
FC Kohvile
1.00
Kose
1.00
Hell Hunt
1.00
Raplamaa
1.00
Welco X
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
Smsraha
1.00
EstHam United
1.00
Eston Villa
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.00
Poseidon
1.00
Rumori Calcio
1.00
Saku Sporting
1.00
Järva-Jaani
0.00
Kose II
0.00
Saue
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Lootos
0.00
Tallinna Kalev III
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
Tallinna Wolves
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Maardu Aliens
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Olympic
0.00
Kristiine JK
0.00
Viimsi
0.00
Flora Tallinn
0.00
Flora Tallinn is 4.50 goals worse than Nõmme United in terms of goals scored per game (0.00 vs 4.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Helios
0.50
Kuressaare
0.50
Trans Narva
0.60
Paide
0.67
Kalju Nomme
0.67
Laagri
0.75
Vaprus
0.75
Zealot Sporting
1.00
JK Tabasalu
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.00
Viimsi
1.00
Tammeka
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Tallinna Kalev
1.25
Elva
1.33
Legion
1.50
Phoenix
1.50
Nõmme United
1.50
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.67
Maksatransport
2.00
Hiiumaa
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
FC Tallinn
2.00
Flora Tallinn
2.00
Vastseliina
2.50
Tallinna Kalev II
2.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
2.50
Tartu Kalev
2.67
Flora II
2.67
Tamper
2.75
Järva-Jaani
3.00
FC Kohvile
3.00
Hell Hunt
3.00
Raplamaa
3.00
Lootos
3.00
Welco X
3.00
KUBIK
3.00
Smsraha
3.00
EstHam United
3.00
Tulevik
3.00
Tabasalu Ulasabat
3.50
Team Helm
3.50
Tallinna FC Zapoos
3.50
Saue
4.00
Kuusalu Kalev
4.00
Soccernet
4.00
Poseidon
4.00
TalTech
4.18
Laagri III
4.18
Flora IV
4.18
Rae Spordikool
4.18
Volta II / Arsenal
4.18
Keila
4.18
Joker
4.18
Kallaste United
4.18
Lootus Järve
4.18
Kohtla-Järve
4.50
Vana Hea Puur
5.00
Kristiine JK
5.00
Rumori Calcio
5.00
Flora III
6.00
Kose
6.00
Tallinna Kalev III
6.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
7.00
Tallinna Wolves
8.00
Eston Villa
11.00
Olympic
11.00
Maardu Aliens
12.00
TransferWise
15.00
Kose II
26.00
Flora Tallinn is 0.50 goals worse than Nõmme United in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Flora Tallinn or Draw✓ Hit
80.3%
Avg Implied -
66%
15%
20%
covers Flora Tallinn + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn or Nõmme United✓ Hit
85.3%
Avg Implied -
66%
15%
20%
covers Flora Tallinn + Nõmme United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nõmme United✗ Miss
34.4%
Avg Implied -
66%
15%
20%
covers Draw + Nõmme United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
97.4%
Under
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
87.8%
Under
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
70.3%
Under
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
49.2%
Under
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.3%
Under
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
63.1%
Under
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
36.2%
Under
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Flora Tallinn, so a minus line means Flora Tallinn give that many goals of a start and Nõmme United receive them. At -1, Flora Tallinn must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Flora Tallinn win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Flora Tallinn)Actual: Draw
Flora Tallinn -2
32.7%
Draw -2
16.3%
Nõmme United +2
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Flora Tallinn)Actual: Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn -1
49.0%
Draw -1
16.6%
Nõmme United +1
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Flora Tallinn)Actual: Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn +1
80.3%
Draw +1
9.7%
Nõmme United -1
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Flora Tallinn)Actual: Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn +2
90.0%
Draw +2
5.7%
Nõmme United -2
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Flora Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.47
1.40
0.33
1.00
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.17
0.83
1.57
0.57
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (18)
1.22
0.22
1.25
0.12
1.20
0.30
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.30
2.27
0.40
1.73
0.20
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
2.00
0.30
2.25
0.42
1.73
0.18
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
0.25
3.50
0.50
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Flora Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.47
1.73
0.47
1.07
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.08
0.67
1.43
0.57
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
1.61
0.33
2.00
0.38
1.30
0.30
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.40
1.80
0.13
1.73
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (23)
1.70
0.43
1.83
0.17
1.55
0.73
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
0.25
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 2.5 goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Flora Tallinn's squad is €1m more valuable than Nõmme United's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Flora Tallinn and Nõmme United have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Flora Tallinn and Nõmme United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Flora Tallinn and Nõmme United have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Trans Narva
Vaprus
Laagri
Kuressaare
Tammeka
Tallinna Kalev
Viimsi
Tartu Welco
Elva
Flora II
FCI Levadia II
Nõmme Kalju II
FC Tallinn
Tallinna Kalev II
Luunja
Phoenix