Floriana are tipped to secure a home win, the model’s favourite result, with a 59% chance of victory, a 27% chance of a draw and a 14% chance of defeat for Birkirkara. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, suggesting a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for the hosts, a 15.1% probability. Floriana’s home form shows they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded against similarly strong opponents, while Birkirkara’s away record is weaker, with only 0.53 goals scored and 1.35 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.5%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Under 5.5 (96.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (96.8%), Home +2 handicap (95.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.7%) and Under 4.5 (91.5%). Floriana have been unbeaten in their last five matches, winning four and drawing one, and they beat Gzira United 4-1, while Birkirkara are coming off a 0-1 loss to Mosta.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Floriana win
59.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara win
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Floriana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.80
1.83
1.00
1.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.19
1.00
1.40
1.20
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
2.29
0.57
2.38
0.75
2.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birkirkara
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.10
1.54
0.77
0.53
1.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
1.10
1.54
0.77
0.53
1.35
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.2%
Under 1.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.7%
Under 2.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.3%
Under 3.5
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
40.8%
No
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.1%
2-0
13.2%
1-1
12.1%
0-0
11.0%
2-1
9.0%
3-0
7.1%
0-1
5.7%
3-1
4.9%
Floriana goals ↓
Birkirkara goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
5.7%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
1
15%
12%
3.8%
0.9%
0.1%
2
13%
9.0%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
3
7.1%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.9%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Floriana goals (down), columns = Birkirkara goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Floriana is 1.08 points better than Birkirkara in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Floriana is 0.65 goals better than Birkirkara in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Floriana is 0.30 goals better than Birkirkara in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Floriana or Draw
85.7%
Avg Implied -
59%
27%
14%
covers Floriana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floriana or Birkirkara
73.4%
Avg Implied -
59%
27%
14%
covers Floriana + Birkirkara
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Birkirkara
40.9%
Avg Implied -
59%
27%
14%
covers Draw + Birkirkara
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Floriana over/under 0.5
Over
80.4%
Under
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5
Over
48.4%
Under
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5
Over
22.4%
Under
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 3.5
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5
Over
49.4%
Under
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Floriana, so a minus line means Floriana give that many goals of a start and Birkirkara receive them. At -1, Floriana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Floriana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Floriana)
Floriana -2
14.5%
Draw -2
18.8%
Birkirkara +2
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Floriana)
Floriana -1
33.2%
Draw -1
25.9%
Birkirkara +1
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Floriana)
Floriana +1
85.7%
Draw +1
10.2%
Birkirkara -1
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Floriana)
Floriana +2
95.9%
Draw +2
3.3%
Birkirkara -2
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Floriana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.72
0.50
0.75
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.38
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.50
0.62
0.62
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birkirkara
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.69
0.38
0.35
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.50
0.47
0.69
0.38
0.35
0.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Floriana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.37
1.11
0.50
0.75
0.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.62
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.07
1.75
0.12
1.17
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Birkirkara
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.85
0.38
0.18
0.82
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.63
0.85
0.38
0.18
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Floriana's squad is €2m more valuable than Birkirkara's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Floriana and Birkirkara have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Floriana and Birkirkara have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Floriana's defence is €1m more valuable than Birkirkara's (€2m vs €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valletta FC
Mosta
Marsaxlokk
Balzan FC
Zabbar St. Patrick
Hibernians
Sliema Wanderers
Hamrun Spartans
Birzebbuga
Gzira United