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Floriana vs Hibernians Result & Analysis

Date: 22/02/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 4-1
Floriana
Floriana
Vs
49%
27%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hibernians
Hibernians
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Floriana are tipped to win, with a 49% chance of triumph, 27% for a draw and 24% for Hibernians. The match is expected to see about 2.7 goals, the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, a 13% chance. Floriana’s home form shows they average 1.88 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded against weaker opposition, while Hibernians, playing away against stronger teams, average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 75.5% and Under 3.5 at 72.4%. The model’s selection of a 1-1 result sits at 13%. The final score of 4-1 confirmed a home win. Recent form notes that Floriana remain unbeaten in their last five, while Hibernians have just returned from a draw.

Results analysis

Floriana extended their unbeaten run with a 4-1 home win over Hibernians, a result that far exceeded the model’s expected total of 2.7 goals. The pre-match favourite was a home win, given a 49% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The model’s suggested picks were mixed: Over 1.5 goals, at 75.5%, hit the mark, while Under 3.5, at 72.4%, missed. The match also saw the model’s most likely scoreline of 1-1 miss, as the final score was 4-1. Floriana’s recent form of DWWWD and Hibernians’ DLWLW underline the disparity in performance, with Floriana’s 1.88 average goals scored and 0.75 conceded at home versus Hibernians’ 1.5 and 1.5 away.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Floriana win✓ Hit
49.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernians win✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W02L00D31W21W30W00D21W20W00DH·SLI20/12H·HAM07/01H·VAL10/01H·NAX17/01H·MOS25/01A·ZAB01/02A·VAL04/02A·GZI08/02H·TAR15/02H·MAR18/02
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.901.390.941.920.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.211.141.001.101.751.25
vs Weaker (16)1.940.691.880.752.000.62
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-433D41W02L03L31W10W21W11D12L01LH·ZAB18/12H·GZI06/01H·MOS11/01A·BIR18/01A·SLI25/01H·MOS31/01H·ZAB04/02H·TAR07/02A·MAR15/02H·HAM18/02
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.571.601.301.402.10
vs Stronger (5)1.001.600.671.671.501.50
vs Similar (25)1.641.561.761.241.382.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.5%
Under 2.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.6%
Under 3.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
6.2%
0-1
6.2%
3-1
5.1%
Floriana goals ↓
Hibernians goals →
01234
08.2%6.2%3.9%1.4%0.4%
110%13%6.2%2.2%0.6%
29.1%9.5%5.0%1.7%0.5%
34.8%5.1%2.7%0.9%0.2%
41.9%2.0%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Floriana goals (down), columns = Hibernians goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Floriana is 0.96 points better than Hibernians in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 1.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Floriana is 0.15 goals better than Hibernians in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.41).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Floriana is 0.71 goals better than Hibernians in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FlorianaFloriana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D00D01L11D10W00D01L10W00DH·SLI20/12H·HAM07/01H·VAL10/01H·NAX17/01H·MOS25/01A·ZAB01/02A·VAL04/02A·GZI08/02H·TAR15/02H·MAR18/02
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.530.780.501.080.58
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.790.570.700.401.001.00
vs Weaker (16)1.000.500.880.621.120.38
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HiberniansHibernians

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L10W00D00D11D10W10W10W02L00DH·ZAB18/12H·GZI06/01H·MOS11/01A·BIR18/01A·SLI25/01H·MOS31/01H·ZAB04/02H·TAR07/02A·MAR15/02H·HAM18/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.700.700.500.601.10
vs Stronger (5)0.401.000.331.000.501.00
vs Similar (25)0.720.640.760.410.621.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FlorianaFloriana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L00D30W10W20W00D20W10W00DH·SLI20/12H·HAM07/01H·VAL10/01H·NAX17/01H·MOS25/01A·ZAB01/02A·VAL04/02A·GZI08/02H·TAR15/02H·MAR18/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.370.610.440.830.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.430.570.300.700.750.25
vs Weaker (16)0.940.191.000.120.880.25
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HiberniansHibernians

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W31W02L03L20W00D11D01L10W01LH·ZAB18/12H·GZI06/01H·MOS11/01A·BIR18/01A·SLI25/01H·MOS31/01H·ZAB04/02H·TAR07/02A·MAR15/02H·HAM18/02
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.870.900.800.801.00
vs Stronger (5)0.600.600.330.671.000.50
vs Similar (25)0.920.921.000.820.751.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Floriana and Hibernians have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Floriana and Hibernians have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Floriana and Hibernians have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Floriana and Hibernians have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
FLO wins
2
Draws
2
HIB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Floriana vs Hibernians · H/A from FLO
DateH/AGameScore
03/10/25AHibernians Vs FLO0-1
29/03/25HFLO Vs Hibernians1-1
30/11/24HFLO Vs Hibernians2-0
22/09/24HFLO Vs Hibernians1-1
10/02/24AHibernians Vs FLO0-2
26/09/23HFLO Vs Hibernians2-0
21/04/23HFLO Vs Hibernians2-5
12/12/22AHibernians Vs FLO1-0

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/02/26HFLO Vs Marsaxlokk0-0
15/02/26HFLO Vs Tarxien Rainbows2-0
08/02/26AGzira United Vs FLO1-2
04/02/26AValletta FC Vs FLO0-0
01/02/26AZabbar St. Patrick Vs FLO0-3
25/01/26HFLO Vs Mosta2-1
17/01/26HFLO Vs Naxxar Lions3-1
10/01/26HFLO Vs Valletta FC0-0
07/01/26HFLO Vs Hamrun Spartans0-2
20/12/25HFLO Vs Sliema Wanderers2-1

HiberniansHibernians

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/02/26HHIB Vs Hamrun Spartans0-1
15/02/26AMarsaxlokk Vs HIB2-1
07/02/26HHIB Vs Tarxien Rainbows1-1
04/02/26HHIB Vs Zabbar St. Patrick2-1
31/01/26HHIB Vs Mosta1-0
25/01/26ASliema Wanderers Vs HIB1-3
18/01/26ABirkirkara Vs HIB3-0
11/01/26HHIB Vs Mosta0-2
06/01/26HHIB Vs Gzira United4-1
18/12/25HHIB Vs Zabbar St. Patrick3-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWD2.00
HomeDWWWD1.85
AwayWWWDW2.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%52%71%
AVG goals2.302.212.47
Over 1.5 %72%76%65%
Over 2.5 %46%42%53%
Over 3.5 %20%18%24%
Scored1.481.361.71
Conceded0.820.850.76
BTTS44%45%41%
Clean Sheet46%42%53%
Corners---
Cards---
Hibernians
Hibernians
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLL1.36
HomeLWWDL1.45
AwayLLLWL1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%41%33%
AVG goals2.982.863.14
Over 1.5 %80%76%86%
Over 2.5 %54%52%57%
Over 3.5 %36%28%48%
Scored1.461.481.43
Conceded1.521.381.71
BTTS56%52%62%
Clean Sheet18%24%10%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3466
56%
1.9
5522+33
2.3
74%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.6
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3457
47%
1.7
4439+5
2.4
76%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3433
18%
1.0
4245-3
2.6
79%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.3
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3424
12%
0.7
3359-26
2.7
76%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.7
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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