Floriana are tipped to win, with a 49% chance of triumph, 27% for a draw and 24% for Hibernians. The match is expected to see about 2.7 goals, the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, a 13% chance. Floriana’s home form shows they average 1.88 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded against weaker opposition, while Hibernians, playing away against stronger teams, average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 75.5% and Under 3.5 at 72.4%. The model’s selection of a 1-1 result sits at 13%. The final score of 4-1 confirmed a home win. Recent form notes that Floriana remain unbeaten in their last five, while Hibernians have just returned from a draw.
Results analysis
Floriana extended their unbeaten run with a 4-1 home win over Hibernians, a result that far exceeded the model’s expected total of 2.7 goals. The pre-match favourite was a home win, given a 49% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The model’s suggested picks were mixed: Over 1.5 goals, at 75.5%, hit the mark, while Under 3.5, at 72.4%, missed. The match also saw the model’s most likely scoreline of 1-1 miss, as the final score was 4-1. Floriana’s recent form of DWWWD and Hibernians’ DLWLW underline the disparity in performance, with Floriana’s 1.88 average goals scored and 0.75 conceded at home versus Hibernians’ 1.5 and 1.5 away.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Floriana win✓ Hit
49.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernians win✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Floriana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.90
1.39
0.94
1.92
0.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.14
1.00
1.10
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (16)
1.94
0.69
1.88
0.75
2.00
0.62
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernians
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.57
1.60
1.30
1.40
2.10
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.60
0.67
1.67
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.64
1.56
1.76
1.24
1.38
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.5%
Under 2.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.6%
Under 3.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
6.2%
0-1
6.2%
3-1
5.1%
Floriana goals ↓
Hibernians goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
6.2%
3.9%
1.4%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.2%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.1%
9.5%
5.0%
1.7%
0.5%
3
4.8%
5.1%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.9%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Floriana goals (down), columns = Hibernians goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Floriana is 0.96 points better than Hibernians in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Floriana is 0.15 goals better than Hibernians in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Floriana is 0.71 goals better than Hibernians in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Floriana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
0.78
0.50
1.08
0.58
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.57
0.70
0.40
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.50
0.88
0.62
1.12
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernians
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.70
0.50
0.60
1.10
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.64
0.76
0.41
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Floriana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.37
0.61
0.44
0.83
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.57
0.30
0.70
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.19
1.00
0.12
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernians
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.87
0.90
0.80
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.60
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.92
1.00
0.82
0.75
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Floriana and Hibernians have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Floriana and Hibernians have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Floriana and Hibernians have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Floriana and Hibernians have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →