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Floriana vs Marsaxlokk Result & Analysis

Date: 16/05/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 2-1
Floriana
Floriana
Vs
40%
30%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Floriana a 40% win probability against Marsaxlokk in the Malta: Premier League on 2026-05-16, with 30% for the draw and 29% for Marsaxlokk. The model estimates around 2.3 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (79%).

Results analysis

Floriana finished 2-1 against Marsaxlokk (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 40% home win, 30% draw and 29% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (79%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Floriana win✓ Hit
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk win✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W11D10W22D10W31W20W14L10W00DH·HIB22/02A·HAM01/03A·SLI07/03A·BIR14/03A·NAX11/04A·MAR15/04H·VAL18/04H·HAM25/04A·GZI30/04A·VAL09/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.530.831.651.121.380.46
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.831.251.001.750.500.25
vs Weaker (18)2.000.562.220.561.780.56
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L21W11D11D32W13L21W10W32W21WA·HAM23/02A·MOS28/02H·NAX08/03H·VAL14/03H·HAM11/04H·FLO15/04H·GZI19/04H·VAL26/04H·NAX02/05H·HAM09/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.101.471.121.081.08
vs Stronger (12)1.081.421.331.830.831.00
vs Similar (18)1.440.891.550.731.291.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.3%
Under 1.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.6%
Under 2.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.0%
Under 3.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
11.0%
0-0
10.9%
0-1
8.8%
2-1 ✓
8.4%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.3%
Floriana goals ↓
Marsaxlokk goals →
01234
011%8.8%5.3%1.9%0.5%
111%14%6.9%2.4%0.6%
28.0%8.4%4.4%1.6%0.4%
33.4%3.6%1.9%0.7%0.2%
41.1%1.2%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Floriana goals (down), columns = Marsaxlokk goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.91
Marsaxlokk
1.74
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.00
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.74
Floriana is 0.44 points better than Marsaxlokk in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 1.74).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.32
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
1.03
Birkirkara
0.91
Floriana is 0.24 goals better than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.32).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.68
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Gzira United
1.34
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.38
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Mosta
1.76
Tarxien Rainbows
1.82
Floriana is 0.32 goals better than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.15).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FlorianaFloriana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W00D21W10W21W00D11D10W00DH·HIB22/02A·HAM01/03A·SLI07/03A·BIR14/03A·NAX11/04A·MAR15/04H·VAL18/04H·HAM25/04A·GZI30/04A·VAL09/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.370.760.470.850.23
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.420.330.500.500.250.00
vs Weaker (18)1.060.391.000.441.110.33
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W01L00D21W12L00D10W21W10WA·HAM23/02A·MOS28/02H·NAX08/03H·VAL14/03H·HAM11/04H·FLO15/04H·GZI19/04H·VAL26/04H·NAX02/05H·HAM09/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.570.820.410.540.77
vs Stronger (12)0.670.670.830.670.500.67
vs Similar (18)0.720.500.820.270.570.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
BIR (12)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
HS (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
FLO (6)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
HS (6)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Floriana vs Marsaxlokk · H/A from FLO
DateH/AGameScore
15/04/26AMarsaxlokk Vs FLO1-3
18/02/26HFLO Vs Marsaxlokk0-0
23/11/25HFLO Vs Marsaxlokk2-1
20/09/25AMarsaxlokk Vs FLO1-2
12/04/25HFLO Vs Marsaxlokk2-1
09/02/25HFLO Vs Marsaxlokk2-1
21/10/24AMarsaxlokk Vs FLO1-1
20/04/24AMarsaxlokk Vs FLO1-0

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26AValletta FC Vs FLO0-0
30/04/26AGzira United Vs FLO0-1
25/04/26HFLO Vs Hamrun Spartans1-4
18/04/26HFLO Vs Valletta FC2-0
15/04/26AMarsaxlokk Vs FLO1-3
11/04/26ANaxxar Lions Vs FLO0-1
14/03/26ABirkirkara Vs FLO2-2
07/03/26ASliema Wanderers Vs FLO0-1
01/03/26AHamrun Spartans Vs FLO1-1
22/02/26HFLO Vs Hibernians4-1

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans2-1
02/05/26HMAR Vs Naxxar Lions3-2
26/04/26HMAR Vs Valletta FC1-0
19/04/26HMAR Vs Gzira United2-1
15/04/26HMAR Vs Floriana1-3
11/04/26HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans3-2
14/03/26HMAR Vs Valletta FC1-1
08/03/26HMAR Vs Naxxar Lions1-1
28/02/26AMosta Vs MAR1-2
23/02/26AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR2-0

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWD1.98
HomeWDWWL1.71
AwayDWWWD2.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%46%68%
AVG goals2.442.502.36
Over 1.5 %74%86%59%
Over 2.5 %48%46%50%
Over 3.5 %26%25%27%
Scored1.541.431.68
Conceded0.901.070.68
BTTS50%54%45%
Clean Sheet42%32%55%
Corners---
Cards---
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWW1.72
HomeLWWWW1.91
AwayWWDLW1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%57%44%
AVG goals2.582.912.30
Over 1.5 %74%83%67%
Over 2.5 %54%61%48%
Over 3.5 %24%30%19%
Scored1.441.571.33
Conceded1.141.350.96
BTTS58%74%44%
Clean Sheet30%17%41%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3465
56%
1.9
5523+32
2.3
74%
35%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.7
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3459
50%
1.7
4539+6
2.5
76%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3434
21%
1.0
4547-2
2.7
82%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3425
15%
0.7
3562-27
2.9
79%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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