Floriana’s recent three-game winning streak fuels the model’s pick for a home win, with a 46 % chance of victory, a 30 % draw probability and a 25 % chance for Marsaxlokk. The expected total goals hover at 2.4, centring on a 2-goal outcome that the model rates at 27 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.9 % probability, distinct from the total-goals expectation.
At home, Floriana averages 1.88 goals scored and 0.5 conceded against weaker opposition, while Marsaxlokk, playing away against stronger teams, nets only 0.6 and concedes 1.0 on average. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (98.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2 %), Under 5.5 (96.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (92.4 %), Under 4.5 (90.6 %) and Home +2 handicap (90.6 %). All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and no other outcomes are highlighted.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Floriana win
47.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk win
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Floriana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.80
1.83
1.00
1.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.19
1.00
1.40
1.20
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
2.29
0.57
2.38
0.75
2.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marsaxlokk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.10
1.57
1.07
1.12
1.12
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
1.36
1.50
1.75
0.86
1.14
vs Similar (19)
1.47
0.95
1.60
0.80
1.33
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.2%
Under 2.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
10.8%
0-0
9.2%
2-1
9.2%
2-0
9.0%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
4.7%
Floriana goals ↓
Marsaxlokk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
7.0%
4.2%
1.4%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.3%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.0%
9.2%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.5%
4.6%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.7%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Floriana goals (down), columns = Marsaxlokk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Floriana is 0.50 points better than Marsaxlokk in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Floriana is 0.26 goals better than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Floriana is 0.32 goals better than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Floriana or Draw
75.4%
Avg Implied -
47%
28%
25%
covers Floriana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floriana or Marsaxlokk
71.6%
Avg Implied -
47%
28%
25%
covers Floriana + Marsaxlokk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Marsaxlokk
53.0%
Avg Implied -
47%
28%
25%
covers Draw + Marsaxlokk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Floriana over/under 0.5
Over
77.7%
Under
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5
Over
44.2%
Under
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5
Over
19.1%
Under
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 3.5
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5
Over
64.1%
Under
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Floriana, so a minus line means Floriana give that many goals of a start and Marsaxlokk receive them. At -1, Floriana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Floriana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Floriana)
Floriana -2
9.7%
Draw -2
14.6%
Marsaxlokk +2
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Floriana)
Floriana -1
24.3%
Draw -1
22.7%
Marsaxlokk +1
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Floriana)
Floriana +1
75.4%
Draw +1
15.1%
Marsaxlokk -1
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Floriana)
Floriana +2
90.5%
Draw +2
6.8%
Marsaxlokk -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Floriana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.72
0.50
0.75
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.38
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.50
0.62
0.62
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marsaxlokk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.93
0.43
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.64
1.25
0.75
0.57
0.57
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.47
0.80
0.30
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.4%
Under 0.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.4%
Under 1.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.2%
Under 2.5
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.8%
Under
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
23.3%
Under
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.6%
Under
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Floriana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.37
1.11
0.50
0.75
0.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.62
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.07
1.75
0.12
1.17
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marsaxlokk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.64
0.64
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.73
0.25
1.00
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.47
0.80
0.50
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.3%
Under 0.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.1%
Under 1.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.9%
Under 2.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.8%
Under
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
26.0%
Under
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.0%
Under
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Floriana's squad is €1m more valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€5m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Floriana and Marsaxlokk have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Floriana and Marsaxlokk have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Floriana's defence is €1m more valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€2m vs €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valletta FC
Mosta
Birkirkara
Balzan FC
Zabbar St. Patrick
Hibernians
Sliema Wanderers
Hamrun Spartans
Birzebbuga
Gzira United