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Floriana vs Mosta Prediction & Stats

Date: 18/10/2026
Time: 16:00
Floriana
Floriana
Vs
61%
23%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Floriana are tipped to win in a 2-goal encounter that the model expects to average 2.7 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.8% chance. The home side’s recent unbeaten run (DWWWD) and a 2-goal win over Hamrun Spartans show they are scoring well at home, averaging 2.14 goals while conceding only 0.71 against weaker opponents. Mosta, on a four-game winning streak (WWWWD) and a 1-0 victory over Birkirkara, have a more modest away attack, averaging 1.5 goals and conceding 1.0 against stronger opposition. The model gives Floriana a 59% chance of victory, a 25% draw probability, and a 16% chance for Mosta. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Home +2 handicap (94.4%), Under 5.5 (94.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.6%), and Under 4.5 (86.2%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Floriana win
60.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mosta win
15.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W20W14L10W00D21W30W20W11D41WA·MAR15/04H·VAL18/04H·HAM25/04A·GZI30/04A·VAL09/05H·MAR16/05A·BIR14/08H·SLI21/08A·HAM29/08H·GZI02/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.700.801.831.001.500.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.191.001.401.200.830.67
vs Weaker (14)2.290.572.380.752.170.33
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W22D21W22D02L11D10W20W21W10WH·HAM15/03A·TAR11/04H·ZAB15/04H·SLI19/04A·HIB24/04A·BIR30/04A·NAX10/05A·HAM17/08H·BAL23/08H·BIR30/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.531.291.531.001.54
vs Stronger (6)1.171.171.001.251.501.00
vs Similar (24)1.171.621.381.620.911.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.6%
Under 1.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.0%
Under 2.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.7%
Under 3.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
2-0
11.0%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
7.1%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
4.6%
Floriana goals ↓
Mosta goals →
01234
06.9%4.2%2.4%0.7%0.2%
110%11%4.6%1.4%0.3%
211%9.9%4.5%1.3%0.3%
37.1%6.4%2.9%0.9%0.2%
43.5%3.1%1.4%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Floriana goals (down), columns = Mosta goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Floriana is 1.30 points better than Mosta in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 0.88).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Floriana is 0.50 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Floriana is 0.93 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Floriana or Draw
84.2%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
16%
covers Floriana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floriana or Mosta
76.5%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
16%
covers Floriana + Mosta
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mosta
39.3%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
16%
covers Draw + Mosta
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Floriana over/under 0.5
Over
85.6%
Under
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5
Over
30.7%
Under
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 3.5
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5
Over
59.3%
Under
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Floriana, so a minus line means Floriana give that many goals of a start and Mosta receive them. At -1, Floriana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Floriana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Floriana)
Floriana -2
18.2%
Draw -2
19.0%
Mosta +2
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Floriana)
Floriana -1
37.2%
Draw -1
23.5%
Mosta +1
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Floriana)
Floriana +1
84.2%
Draw +1
10.4%
Mosta -1
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Floriana)
Floriana +2
94.6%
Draw +2
4.1%
Mosta -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FlorianaFloriana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D11D10W00D01L10W10W01L00DA·MAR15/04H·VAL18/04H·HAM25/04A·GZI30/04A·VAL09/05H·MAR16/05A·BIR14/08H·SLI21/08A·HAM29/08H·GZI02/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.430.720.500.750.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.690.380.800.400.500.33
vs Weaker (14)0.790.500.620.621.000.33
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W21W10W10W01L01L10W10W20W10WH·HAM15/03A·TAR11/04H·ZAB15/04H·SLI19/04A·HIB24/04A·BIR30/04A·NAX10/05A·HAM17/08H·BAL23/08H·BIR30/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.700.650.650.540.77
vs Stronger (6)0.670.500.500.501.000.50
vs Similar (24)0.580.750.690.690.450.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FlorianaFloriana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W20W03L00D00D20W20W10W10W41WA·MAR15/04H·VAL18/04H·HAM25/04A·GZI30/04A·VAL09/05H·MAR16/05A·BIR14/08H·SLI21/08A·HAM29/08H·GZI02/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.371.110.500.750.17
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.500.620.600.800.330.33
vs Weaker (14)1.500.071.750.121.170.00
Clean sheet %73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L11D12L01L10W00D10W01L00DH·HAM15/03A·TAR11/04H·ZAB15/04H·SLI19/04A·HIB24/04A·BIR30/04A·NAX10/05A·HAM17/08H·BAL23/08H·BIR30/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.830.650.880.460.77
vs Stronger (6)0.500.670.500.750.500.50
vs Similar (24)0.580.880.690.920.450.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.1%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.7%-------
Under 6.597.4%-------
Home +2 handicap94.6%-------
Away under 2.5 goals93.7%-------
Under 5.593.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals86.8%-------
Home over 0.5 goals85.6%-------
Home or Draw84.2%-------
Home +1 handicap84.2%-------
Under 4.584.1%-------
Over 1.578.6%-------
Away under 1.5 goals77.2%-------
Home or Away76.5%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Floriana's squad is €2m more valuable than Mosta's (€5m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Floriana and Mosta have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Floriana and Mosta have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Floriana and Mosta have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
7
FLO wins
1
Draws
0
MOS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Floriana vs Mosta · H/A from FLO
DateH/AGameScore
25/01/26HFLO Vs Mosta2-1
27/09/25AMosta Vs FLO0-1
27/04/25HFLO Vs Mosta3-0
02/03/25HFLO Vs Mosta2-2
23/11/24HFLO Vs Mosta1-0
03/10/24AMosta Vs FLO0-2
13/04/24HFLO Vs Mosta4-0
09/12/23AMosta Vs FLO0-3

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/26HFLO Vs Gzira United4-1
29/08/26AHamrun Spartans Vs FLO1-1
21/08/26HFLO Vs Sliema Wanderers2-0
14/08/26ABirzebbuga Vs FLO0-3
16/05/26HFLO Vs Marsaxlokk2-1
09/05/26AValletta FC Vs FLO0-0
30/04/26AGzira United Vs FLO0-1
25/04/26HFLO Vs Hamrun Spartans1-4
18/04/26HFLO Vs Valletta FC2-0
15/04/26AMarsaxlokk Vs FLO1-3

MostaMosta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HMOS Vs Birkirkara1-0
23/08/26HMOS Vs Balzan FC2-1
17/08/26AHamrun Spartans Vs MOS0-2
10/05/26ANaxxar Lions Vs MOS0-1
30/04/26ABirkirkara Vs MOS1-1
24/04/26AHibernians Vs MOS2-0
19/04/26HMOS Vs Sliema Wanderers2-2
15/04/26HMOS Vs Zabbar St. Patrick2-1
11/04/26ATarxien Rainbows Vs MOS2-2
15/03/26HMOS Vs Hamrun Spartans2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW2.08
HomeWLWWW1.93
AwayWWDWD2.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%55%67%
AVG goals2.502.552.43
Over 1.5 %76%86%62%
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Over 3.5 %26%24%29%
Scored1.641.591.71
Conceded0.860.970.71
BTTS52%55%48%
Clean Sheet42%34%52%
Corners---
Cards---
Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW1.08
HomeWWDWW1.20
AwayDLDWW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals2.702.802.60
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %48%56%40%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.041.200.88
Conceded1.661.601.72
BTTS44%52%36%
Clean Sheet20%20%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana410
75%
2.5
102+8
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.50.5
-
2Valletta FCValletta FC49
75%
2.2
104+6
3.5
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3MostaMosta39
100%
3.0
51+4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.70.3
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk37
67%
2.3
42+2
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.30.7
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara36
67%
2.0
51+4
2.0
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.70.3
-
6Balzan FCBalzan FC34
33%
1.3
44+0
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.3
-
7Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick34
33%
1.3
45-1
3.0
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.7
-
8HiberniansHibernians44
25%
1.0
34-1
1.8
75%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2130.81.0
-
9Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers33
33%
1.0
25-3
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3220.71.7
-
10Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans31
0%
0.3
14-3
1.7
67%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1310.31.3
-
11BirzebbugaBirzebbuga30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1210.32.0
-
12Gzira UnitedGzira United40
0%
0.0
213-11
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.53.2
-
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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