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Floriana vs Naxxar Lions Result & Analysis

Date: 17/01/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 3-1
Floriana
Floriana
Vs
50%
27%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Floriana win✓ Hit
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions win✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W20W13L22D21W20W21W02L00DA·MOS27/09A·HIB03/10H·BIR25/10H·HAM29/10H·SLI01/11H·MAR23/11H·BIR13/12H·SLI20/12H·HAM07/01H·VAL10/01
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.001.201.052.100.90
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.061.250.771.152.331.67
vs Weaker (14)2.000.712.000.862.000.57
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W01L11D03L12L11D13L32W21W10WA·SLI28/09H·VAL05/10H·HAM26/10A·MOS29/10A·GZI03/11A·HIB25/11A·GZI11/12A·MOS19/12A·ZAB08/01H·TAR11/01
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.431.001.271.321.53
vs Stronger (4)1.502.001.002.002.002.00
vs Similar (26)1.151.351.001.111.241.47
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.6%
Under 2.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.2%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
6.1%
0-1
6.1%
3-1 ✓
5.1%
Floriana goals ↓
Naxxar Lions goals →
01234
08.2%6.1%3.8%1.3%0.3%
110%13%6.1%2.1%0.6%
29.2%9.5%5.0%1.7%0.4%
34.9%5.1%2.7%0.9%0.2%
42.0%2.1%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Floriana goals (down), columns = Naxxar Lions goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Floriana is 1.12 points better than Naxxar Lions in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 1.06).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Floriana is 0.32 goals better than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.24).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Floriana is 0.75 goals better than Naxxar Lions in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.58).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FlorianaFloriana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W10W02L11D21W20W20W00D00DA·MOS27/09A·HIB03/10H·BIR25/10H·HAM29/10H·SLI01/11H·MAR23/11H·BIR13/12H·SLI20/12H·HAM07/01H·VAL10/01
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.500.700.451.400.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.690.620.540.461.331.33
vs Weaker (14)1.210.361.000.431.430.29
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W01L11D00D12L00D01L11D20W00DA·SLI28/09H·VAL05/10H·HAM26/10A·MOS29/10A·GZI03/11A·HIB25/11A·GZI11/12A·MOS19/12A·ZAB08/01H·TAR11/01
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.800.550.640.740.89
vs Stronger (4)1.001.500.501.501.501.50
vs Similar (26)0.620.690.560.440.650.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FlorianaFloriana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D10W11D11D00D00D01L02L00DA·MOS27/09A·HIB03/10H·BIR25/10H·HAM29/10H·SLI01/11H·MAR23/11H·BIR13/12H·SLI20/12H·HAM07/01H·VAL10/01
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.500.500.600.700.30
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.380.620.230.691.000.33
vs Weaker (14)0.790.361.000.430.570.29
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D03L00D11D12L21W01L10WA·SLI28/09H·VAL05/10H·HAM26/10A·MOS29/10A·GZI03/11A·HIB25/11A·GZI11/12A·MOS19/12A·ZAB08/01H·TAR11/01
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.450.640.580.63
vs Stronger (4)0.500.500.500.500.500.50
vs Similar (26)0.540.650.440.670.590.65
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Floriana's squad is €4m more valuable than Naxxar Lions's (€5m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Floriana's attack is €1m more valuable than Naxxar Lions's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Floriana and Naxxar Lions have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Floriana's defence is €1m more valuable than Naxxar Lions's (€2m vs €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
4
FLO wins
1
Draws
0
NL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Floriana vs Naxxar Lions · H/A from FLO
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/25ANaxxar Lions Vs FLO1-3
05/01/25HFLO Vs Naxxar Lions4-0
16/09/24ANaxxar Lions Vs FLO0-2
25/02/24ANaxxar Lions Vs FLO0-3
21/10/23HFLO Vs Naxxar Lions1-1

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/01/26HFLO Vs Valletta FC0-0
07/01/26HFLO Vs Hamrun Spartans0-2
20/12/25HFLO Vs Sliema Wanderers2-1
13/12/25HFLO Vs Birkirkara2-0
23/11/25HFLO Vs Marsaxlokk2-1
01/11/25HFLO Vs Sliema Wanderers2-2
29/10/25HFLO Vs Hamrun Spartans1-3
25/10/25HFLO Vs Birkirkara2-0
03/10/25AHibernians Vs FLO0-1
27/09/25AMosta Vs FLO0-1

Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/01/26HNL Vs Tarxien Rainbows1-0
08/01/26AZabbar St. Patrick Vs NL1-2
19/12/25AMosta Vs NL2-3
11/12/25AGzira United Vs NL3-1
25/11/25AHibernians Vs NL1-1
03/11/25AGzira United Vs NL2-1
29/10/25AMosta Vs NL3-0
26/10/25HNL Vs Hamrun Spartans1-1
05/10/25HNL Vs Valletta FC0-1
28/09/25ASliema Wanderers Vs NL0-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD1.96
HomeWWWLD1.79
AwayWWWWW2.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%48%71%
AVG goals2.322.182.59
Over 1.5 %74%76%71%
Over 2.5 %44%42%47%
Over 3.5 %20%15%29%
Scored1.481.331.76
Conceded0.840.850.82
BTTS46%45%47%
Clean Sheet44%42%47%
Corners---
Cards---
Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWW1.00
HomeLLLDW1.00
AwayLDLWW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%25%27%
AVG goals2.622.352.80
Over 1.5 %76%70%80%
Over 2.5 %46%45%47%
Over 3.5 %24%15%30%
Scored0.980.751.13
Conceded1.641.601.67
BTTS42%40%43%
Clean Sheet20%25%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3466
56%
1.9
5522+33
2.3
74%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.6
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3457
47%
1.7
4439+5
2.4
76%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3433
18%
1.0
4245-3
2.6
79%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.3
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3424
12%
0.7
3359-26
2.7
76%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.7
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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