In a finely balanced encounter, Floridsdorfer AC will host SKN ST. Polten at home. The recent form of both teams has been a storyline, with Floridsdorfer AC coming off a defeat to Sturm Graz II, while SKN ST. Polten has suffered two consecutive defeats.
The model predicts a home win, with a 38% chance of Floridsdorfer AC securing all three points, a 31% chance of a draw, and a 31% chance of SKN ST. Polten emerging victorious. The expected total goals is 2.3, with the most likely total goals being 2. The single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a 14.6% probability.
Floridsdorfer AC has a strong home form, scoring an average of 1.57 goals and conceding 0.57 goals per match against teams of similar strength. In contrast, SKN ST. Polten has a weaker away form, scoring 1 goal and conceding 1.6 goals per match against teams of similar strength. The model's selection is the home win, with suggested picks including Over 21.5 fouls (83.2%), Over 3.5 cards (83.0%), and Under 3.5 (80.6% with a 5% edge). The home win percentage is 38%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 31%.
The win extends Floridsdorfer AC's run, but it was their first in four games. The final score was 1-0, a result that matched the actual outcome. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 38%. The model's call was vindicated as Floridsdorfer AC took the three points. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with an 80.6% probability, while the model's selection of the most likely score, 1-1, missed, with a 14.6% probability. The model's selection of 0-0 also missed, with an 11.7% probability.
Floridsdorfer AC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 0.73 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.46 | 0.68 | 1.29 | 1.07 | 1.64 | 0.29 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
SKN ST. Polten| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 0.93 | 1.60 | 0.67 | 1.27 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.50 | 0.88 | 1.77 | 0.69 | 1.18 | 1.09 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
| SKN ST. Polten goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 12% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 11% | 15% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.5% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Floridsdorfer AC
SKN ST. Polten
Floridsdorfer AC| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.2 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 26.6 | 30.0 | 21.2 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 7.0 | - | 7.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 28.0 | - | 28.0 |
| vs Similar (46) | 8.2 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 26.5 | 30.0 | 19.5 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 31% | 50% | 0% | 18% | 28% | 8% | 85% | 100% | 60% |
| % under line | 69% | 50% | 100% | 82% | 72% | 92% | 15% | 0% | 40% |
SKN ST. Polten| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.8 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 20.7 | 19.4 | 22.8 |
| vs Stronger (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (41) | 11.8 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 20.7 | 19.4 | 22.8 |
| vs Weaker (8) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 54% | 50% | 60% | 16% | 24% | 8% | 38% | 25% | 60% |
| % under line | 46% | 50% | 40% | 84% | 76% | 92% | 62% | 75% | 40% |
Floridsdorfer AC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.10 | 0.73 | 0.20 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.79 | 0.11 | 0.71 | 0.21 | 0.86 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 90% (+64pp vs league) | |||||
SKN ST. Polten| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.43 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.62 | 0.42 | 0.85 | 0.38 | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+37pp vs league) | |||||
Floridsdorfer AC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.68 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.29 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
SKN ST. Polten| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.50 | 0.87 | 0.27 | 0.93 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.88 | 0.46 | 0.92 | 0.31 | 0.82 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.20 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 89.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 84.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 80.6% | 1.23 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.24 | +5.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 77.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 73.1% | 1.21 | 1.29 | 1.18 | 1.17 | - | - | -2.0% | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 72.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 01/11/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 06/12/24 | A | 3-2 | |
| 04/08/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 15/03/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 25/08/23 | A | 2-0 | |
| 26/05/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/09/22 | A | 1-2 |
Floridsdorfer AC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 24/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 0-3 |
SKN ST. Polten| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 14/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 24/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC BW Linz | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | Austria Salzburg | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | - |
| 3 | Wacker Innsbruck | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | FC Liefering | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 53% |
| 5 | First Vienna | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 3.5 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 6 | Floridsdorfer AC | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3.5 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | - |
| 8 | SKU Amstetten | 4 | 6 | 25% | 1.5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.8 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Rapid Wien II | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 11 | Voitsberg | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 12 | WSPG Wels | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 13 | Admira Wacker | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1.8 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 14 | Sturm Graz II | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 15 | SKN ST. Polten | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 16 | SV Kapfenberg | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.8 | - |