Floridsdorfer AC are tipped to win, with a 56% chance of triumph, a 24% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of an away victory. The average goal tally sits at three, yet the most probable total is two, with a 23% likelihood. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which the model assigns an 11.2% probability. Home side Floridsdorfer have scored an average of two goals and conceded 1.4 at home against teams of similar strength, while SV Kapfenberg, on the road, averages only 0.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 91.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 85.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 83.6%, Over 1.5 goals at 81.4% (hit), Over 8.5 corners at 80.5%, Over 23.5 fouls at 71.5% and Over 9.5 corners at 70.6%. Floridsdorfer’s recent form shows a two-game winning streak, while Kapfenberg comes off a single win after a series of losses.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Floridsdorfer AC, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that snapped the home side’s two-game winning run. The model had picked a home win with a 56% probability, but that call was wrong. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, which hit with an 81.4% chance. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely score of 1-1, though the predicted 2-0 or 2-1 outcomes were missed. The game’s outcome was a surprise, with both teams scoring once, leaving the model’s favourite on the wrong side of the result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Floridsdorfer AC win✗ Miss
56.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg win✗ Miss
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Floridsdorfer AC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.91
2.00
1.40
1.50
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.70
0.90
2.00
1.40
1.40
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.55
0.83
3.00
0.60
2.00
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
1.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
2.30
0.80
2.60
0.60
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-26pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.1%
Under 2.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.7%
Under 3.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.6%
No
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.2%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
8.4%
3-1
6.4%
3-0
5.9%
0-0
5.9%
1-2
5.5%
Floridsdorfer AC goals ↓
SV Kapfenberg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
4.2%
2.8%
1.0%
0.3%
1
8.4%
11%
5.5%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.2%
9.9%
5.4%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.9%
6.4%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.9%
3.1%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Floridsdorfer AC goals (down), columns = SV Kapfenberg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC BW Linz
2.03
Grazer AK
2.00
SKN ST. Polten
1.87
SV Horn
1.60
SKU Amstetten
1.50
Floridsdorfer AC
1.50
First Vienna
1.43
SV Lafnitz
1.37
FC Liefering
1.23
Admira Wacker
1.20
Dornbirn
1.17
Sturm Graz II
1.13
SV Kapfenberg
1.13
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.07
Rapid Wien II
1.00
Austria Vienna (Am)
0.97
Floridsdorfer AC is 0.37 points better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC BW Linz
2.10
Grazer AK
1.73
FC Liefering
1.73
SKN ST. Polten
1.70
SKU Amstetten
1.63
SV Lafnitz
1.60
Sturm Graz II
1.43
Dornbirn
1.43
Floridsdorfer AC
1.37
SV Kapfenberg
1.33
Admira Wacker
1.30
SV Horn
1.27
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.20
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.13
First Vienna
1.13
Rapid Wien II
1.10
Floridsdorfer AC is 0.03 goals better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SKN ST. Polten
0.90
FC BW Linz
0.90
Grazer AK
0.97
Floridsdorfer AC
1.00
First Vienna
1.10
SV Horn
1.10
Admira Wacker
1.40
Dornbirn
1.47
SV Lafnitz
1.53
SKU Amstetten
1.63
SK Vorwarts Steyr
1.80
FC Liefering
1.80
Rapid Wien II
1.83
Sturm Graz II
1.87
SV Kapfenberg
1.87
Austria Vienna (Am)
2.03
Floridsdorfer AC is 0.87 goals better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.87).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Liefering
54%
SKN ST. Polten
53%
FC BW Linz
53%
Floridsdorfer AC
52%
Grazer AK
52%
First Vienna
51%
SV Horn
51%
SV Lafnitz
51%
Austria Vienna (Am)
50%
SKU Amstetten
49%
Rapid Wien II
49%
Admira Wacker
49%
SK Vorwarts Steyr
47%
Dornbirn
47%
SV Kapfenberg
41%
Floridsdorfer AC is 10.7 percentage points better than SV Kapfenberg in terms of average possession (52% vs 41%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Floridsdorfer AC
For 5.0 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.8 · Against 14.5 · Total 30.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SV Kapfenberg
For 3.5 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 13.0 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Floridsdorfer AC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (11)
10.8
9.0
11.3
1.4
1.0
1.7
30.2
36.0
28.3
vs Stronger (1)
18.0
-
18.0
2.0
-
2.0
28.0
-
28.0
vs Similar (10)
8.3
9.0
8.0
1.3
1.0
1.6
31.0
36.0
28.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
0%
67%
18%
20%
17%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
100%
33%
82%
80%
83%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (11)
10.0
9.0
11.0
1.7
1.7
1.8
26.5
37.0
16.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
10.0
9.0
11.0
1.9
2.0
1.8
26.5
37.0
16.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
25%
0%
50%
18%
17%
20%
75%
100%
50%
% under line
75%
100%
50%
82%
83%
80%
25%
0%
50%
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dornbirn
14.2
SKN ST. Polten
13.3
Grazer AK
10.8
Floridsdorfer AC
10.8
FC Liefering
10.7
SV Kapfenberg
10.0
SK Vorwarts Steyr
10.0
Admira Wacker
9.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
9.5
SKU Amstetten
9.4
FC BW Linz
9.3
SV Horn
9.2
Rapid Wien II
9.0
SV Lafnitz
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Horn
6.5
SV Lafnitz
5.3
SV Kapfenberg
4.8
Dornbirn
4.6
Admira Wacker
4.4
SK Vorwarts Steyr
4.2
Rapid Wien II
4.0
Grazer AK
3.8
Austria Vienna (Am)
3.8
Floridsdorfer AC
3.8
SKN ST. Polten
3.7
FC BW Linz
3.7
FC Liefering
3.7
SKU Amstetten
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Horn
32.5
Floridsdorfer AC
30.2
FC BW Linz
29.7
Grazer AK
28.0
SV Lafnitz
27.0
SV Kapfenberg
26.5
FC Liefering
24.7
SKN ST. Polten
24.3
Dornbirn
22.8
Austria Vienna (Am)
22.0
Admira Wacker
21.6
SK Vorwarts Steyr
21.5
Rapid Wien II
20.3
SKU Amstetten
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
70.6%
Under 9.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.0%
Under 3.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
83.6%
Under 21.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Floridsdorfer AC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.55
1.20
0.80
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.50
1.20
0.80
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
55% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
1.00
0.33
1.50
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.90
0.20
1.40
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
36% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Floridsdorfer AC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.36
0.80
0.60
1.17
0.17
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.40
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
64% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (SV Kapfenberg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SV Kapfenberg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
1.55
0.50
1.50
0.20
1.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
1.40
0.60
1.20
0.20
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
9% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Floridsdorfer AC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floridsdorfer AC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SV Kapfenberg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 9.5 corners
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GA (23)
€9m
FL (17)
€5m
FBL (21)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
AV( (23)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
RWI (24)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
Floridsdorfer AC and SV Kapfenberg have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
GA (7)
€2m
RWI (12)
€2m
FBL (9)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
AV( (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
Floridsdorfer AC and SV Kapfenberg have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FBL (4)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
GA (3)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AV( (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
RWI (4)
€1m
Floridsdorfer AC and SV Kapfenberg have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GA (13)
€6m
AV( (11)
€2m
FBL (8)
€2m
AW (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
SSP (8)
€1m
RWI (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
Floridsdorfer AC and SV Kapfenberg have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →