Folgore’s recent 5-game run of four wins and a loss shows the team in fine form, especially after a 5-0 triumph over Murata. The model therefore rates a home win as the clear favourite, giving Folgore a 76% chance to lift the trophy. The probability of a draw sits at 16% and an away win at 9%. The expected total goals is 3.6, with the most likely total being three goals at a 21% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 10.3% probability.
Against a weaker opponent, Folgore averages four goals scored and only 0.6 conceded at home. Cailungo, playing away against a stronger side, averages 0.7 scored and 2.8 conceded. The model’s suggested picks cover a range of outcomes: Away under 2.5 HT goals99.4%, Over 19.5 fouls99.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals98.9%, Away under 3.5 goals98.8%, Over 21.5 fouls97.4%, Home +2 handicap97.2%, Under 7.597.0%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals95.4%. These selections reflect the strong home advantage and the opposition’s defensive frailties.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Folgore win
75.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
15.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cailungo win
8.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Folgore
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.17
2.27
1.20
2.13
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.67
1.33
1.67
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (14)
1.86
1.29
1.43
1.43
2.29
1.14
vs Weaker (10)
3.30
0.70
4.00
0.60
2.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cailungo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
2.37
0.75
2.31
0.86
2.43
vs Stronger (23)
0.74
2.65
0.77
2.54
0.70
2.80
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.43
0.67
1.33
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.9%
Under 1.5
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.4%
Under 2.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
48.1%
Under 3.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.7%
No
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.3%
3-0
9.3%
2-1
8.9%
3-1
8.1%
1-1
7.2%
1-0
6.9%
4-0
6.3%
4-1
5.5%
Folgore goals ↓
Cailungo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
1.8%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
1
6.9%
7.2%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
2
10%
8.9%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
3
9.3%
8.1%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
4
6.3%
5.5%
2.4%
0.7%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Folgore goals (down), columns = Cailungo goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Folgore is 1.51 points better than Cailungo in terms of average points per game (1.88 vs 0.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Folgore is 1.39 goals better than Cailungo in terms of goals scored per game (2.16 vs 0.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Folgore is 1.24 goals better than Cailungo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 2.37).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Folgore
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Cailungo
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Folgore
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
5.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (10)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (18)
5.0
5.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Cailungo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cailungo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
-
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (37)
5.0
-
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Fiori
7.7
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
5.3
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Tre Fiori
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
18.7%
Under 9.5
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.4%
Under 3.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.4%
Under 21.5
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Folgore or Draw
91.3%
Avg Implied -
76%
16%
9%
covers Folgore + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Folgore or Cailungo
84.4%
Avg Implied -
76%
16%
9%
covers Folgore + Cailungo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cailungo
24.3%
Avg Implied -
76%
16%
9%
covers Draw + Cailungo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Folgore over/under 0.5
Over
93.4%
Under
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5
Over
75.5%
Under
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5
Over
51.1%
Under
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 3.5
Over
29.0%
Under
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 0.5
Over
57.9%
Under
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Folgore, so a minus line means Folgore give that many goals of a start and Cailungo receive them. At -1, Folgore must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Folgore win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Folgore)
Folgore -2
34.6%
Draw -2
21.1%
Cailungo +2
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Folgore)
Folgore -1
55.6%
Draw -1
20.0%
Cailungo +1
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Folgore)
Folgore +1
91.3%
Draw +1
5.9%
Cailungo -1
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Folgore)
Folgore +2
97.2%
Draw +2
2.1%
Cailungo -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Folgore
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.13
0.60
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.86
0.57
0.86
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
0.30
2.20
0.40
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cailungo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.93
0.38
1.00
0.29
0.86
vs Stronger (23)
0.30
1.17
0.38
1.15
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.14
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.3%
Under 0.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.7%
Under 1.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.7%
Under 2.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Folgore over/under 0.5 HT
Over
74.7%
Under
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5 HT
Over
36.1%
Under
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5 HT
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
24.5%
Under
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Folgore
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.53
1.13
0.60
1.33
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.43
0.86
0.57
1.43
0.29
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
0.40
1.80
0.20
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cailungo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.43
0.38
1.31
0.57
1.57
vs Stronger (23)
0.43
1.48
0.38
1.38
0.50
1.60
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.29
0.33
1.00
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
88.8%
Under 0.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
58.5%
Under 1.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.6%
Under 2.5
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Folgore over/under 0.5 2H
Over
79.7%
Under
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5 2H
Over
45.5%
Under
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5 2H
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 HT goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Folgore and Cailungo have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Folgore and Cailungo have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Folgore and Cailungo have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Folgore and Cailungo have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Domagnano
Libertas
Cosmos
La Fiorita
Virtus
San Giovanni
San Marino Academy
Pennarossa
Faetano
Murata