This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
La Fiorita
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.57
2.19
0.44
2.00
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.67
0.83
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
2.89
0.50
3.00
0.50
2.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.1%
Under 2.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.4%
No
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
7.7%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
7.2%
0-0 â
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
0-1
5.7%
Folgore goals ↓
La Fiorita goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
5.7%
4.3%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.7%
12%
7.2%
3.0%
1.0%
2
7.3%
9.3%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.1%
5.2%
3.3%
1.4%
0.4%
4
1.7%
2.1%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Folgore goals (down), columns = La Fiorita goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Penne
2.50
Virtus
2.14
La Fiorita
2.00
Folgore
1.75
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Fiori
1.43
San Giovanni
1.25
Faetano
1.00
Cosmos
0.50
Murata
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Cailungo
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
Folgore is 0.25 points worse than La Fiorita in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 2.00).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Penne
2.33
Tre Fiori
1.57
Virtus
1.43
San Giovanni
1.00
La Fiorita
1.00
Cosmos
1.00
Faetano
0.75
Juvenes / Dogana
0.75
Folgore
0.75
Cailungo
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Murata
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
Folgore is 0.25 goals worse than La Fiorita in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.00).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.00
Virtus
0.43
Tre Penne
0.50
Murata
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Pennarossa
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Cosmos
1.50
Fiorentino
1.50
San Giovanni
1.75
Faetano
1.75
Libertas
2.50
Cailungo
5.00
Folgore is 0.50 goals worse than La Fiorita in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 0.00).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Folgore or Drawâ Hit
71.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
28%
covers Folgore + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Folgore or La Fioritaâ Miss
73.6%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
28%
covers Folgore + La Fiorita
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or La Fioritaâ Hit
54.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
28%
covers Draw + La Fiorita
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Folgore over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
81.0%
Under
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
49.4%
Under
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.2%
Under
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.0%
Under
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.4%
Under
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.7%
Under
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âïļ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Folgore, so a minus line means Folgore give that many goals of a start and La Fiorita receive them. At -1, Folgore must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Folgore win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Folgore)Actual: La Fiorita
Folgore -2
10.3%
Draw -2
14.1%
La Fiorita +2
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Folgore)Actual: La Fiorita
Folgore -1
24.3%
Draw -1
21.0%
La Fiorita +1
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Folgore)Actual: Folgore
Folgore +1
71.7%
Draw +1
15.8%
La Fiorita -1
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Folgore)Actual: Folgore
Folgore +2
87.5%
Draw +2
8.3%
La Fiorita -2
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Folgore
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
0.87
0.47
0.73
0.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.00
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.46
0.71
0.71
0.67
0.17
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.20
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
La Fiorita
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.17
0.81
0.12
0.79
0.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.17
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.17
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.12
Clean sheet %
87% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Folgore over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Folgore
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.33
0.80
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (13)
0.23
1.08
0.00
1.14
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.45
0.67
0.50
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
43% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
La Fiorita
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.40
1.38
0.31
1.21
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
1.89
0.33
2.00
0.30
1.75
0.38
Clean sheet %
73% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Folgore over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 1.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away +2 handicap
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home or Away
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Home or Draw
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Folgore and La Fiorita have a similar squad value (both €1m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Folgore and La Fiorita have a similar attack value (both €0m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Folgore and La Fiorita have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Folgore and La Fiorita have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Virtus
Tre Penne
Tre Fiori
Domagnano
Fiorentino
Cosmos
Juvenes / Dogana
Libertas
Pennarossa
San Giovanni
Faetano
San Marino Academy
Cailungo
Murata