Folgore’s recent five-game run of WLWWW, capped by a 5-0 win over Murata, suggests a potent attack, yet their home form against weaker opposition shows they average four goals scored and just one conceded. Libertas, however, has struggled away, with a last-five record of DDLLL and a 1-1 draw against Cosmos, and their away statistics against stronger teams reveal a single goal scored and conceded on average. The model’s numbers point to a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.3 goals and a most likely total of three, giving a 22% chance that the final tally will hit exactly three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.2% probability. The model favours an away win, assigning 43% to Libertas, 32% to Folgore and 25% to a draw. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5, with an 84.6% probability of success.
Results analysis
The win for Libertas extends their recent run, while Folgore’s form still shows resilience after a 5-0 victory over Murata. The model predicted an away win with a 43% probability, and the outcome matched that call. The final score was 2-3, confirming the away victory. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.6% probability, also hit. All suggested picks were settled, and the model’s predictions proved accurate. The match delivered the expected result, with the favored outcome and the over-goals selection both coming through.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Folgore win✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Libertas win✓ Hit
42.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Folgore
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.29
1.57
1.57
1.71
1.00
1.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (6)
1.00
2.00
0.67
2.67
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
1.20
4.00
1.00
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
14% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Libertas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.21
1.14
1.00
1.71
1.43
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
2.14
1.57
2.00
1.33
2.25
1.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
14% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.1%
Under 2.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.9%
Under 3.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.2%
No
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.6%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
5.9%
0-1
5.8%
1-3
5.2%
0-0
4.9%
Folgore goals ↓
Libertas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
5.8%
5.9%
3.5%
1.5%
1
4.8%
11%
8.9%
5.2%
2.3%
2
4.3%
7.6%
6.7%
3.9%
1.7%
3
2.2%
3.8%
3.3%
2.0%
0.9%
4
0.8%
1.4%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Folgore goals (down), columns = Libertas goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Cosmos
2.48
Tre Penne
2.43
La Fiorita
2.12
Virtus
1.91
Tre Fiori
1.90
Libertas
1.55
Folgore
1.10
Murata
1.03
Juvenes / Dogana
1.03
Faetano
0.90
Domagnano
0.90
Pennarossa
0.89
San Giovanni
0.82
Fiorentino
0.82
Cailungo
0.64
Folgore is 0.45 points worse than Libertas in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.55).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cosmos
2.30
Tre Penne
2.14
Virtus
1.76
Libertas
1.61
Tre Fiori
1.57
La Fiorita
1.48
Murata
1.41
Pennarossa
1.39
Juvenes / Dogana
1.39
Fiorentino
1.32
Domagnano
1.31
Faetano
1.19
Folgore
1.13
Cailungo
1.04
San Giovanni
1.00
Folgore is 0.47 goals worse than Libertas in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cosmos
0.45
La Fiorita
0.61
Tre Penne
0.68
Tre Fiori
0.80
Virtus
0.91
Libertas
1.21
Folgore
1.70
Juvenes / Dogana
1.71
Domagnano
1.76
San Giovanni
1.93
Murata
2.00
Pennarossa
2.04
Fiorentino
2.07
Faetano
2.26
Cailungo
2.46
Folgore is 0.49 goals worse than Libertas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Folgore
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Libertas
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Folgore
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Libertas
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Tre Penne
11.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
Tre Penne
5.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Folgore
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
0.79
1.00
0.86
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.83
0.33
1.33
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
2.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Libertas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
0.36
0.86
0.29
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.43
1.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
71% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Folgore over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Folgore
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.79
0.57
0.86
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.17
0.33
1.33
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.60
1.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Libertas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.86
0.29
0.71
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.14
0.33
1.00
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
36% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Folgore over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Folgore and Libertas have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Folgore and Libertas have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Folgore and Libertas have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Folgore and Libertas have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Cosmos
La Fiorita
Tre Penne
Virtus
Tre Fiori
Juvenes / Dogana
Murata
Faetano
Domagnano
Pennarossa
Fiorentino
San Giovanni
Cailungo