Folgore are the clear favourites, with a 54% chance of triumph, a 25% draw probability and a 21% chance of Libertas winning. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 25%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 12% probability. Folgore, playing at home against a weaker side, average 1.67 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded, while Libertas, on the road to stronger opponents, average 0.83 goals scored and 3.33 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 with a 79% probability, and the edge is noted. The home win percentage is 54%, the draw percentage 25%, and the away win percentage 21%. All selections are presented with their exact probabilities, and no other outcomes are mentioned.
Results analysis
The win extends Folgore’s recent run, as they came off a 5-0 triumph over Murata. The model had picked a Home win with a 54% probability, and that call proved correct as Folgore edged Libertas 3-0. The predicted over 1.5 goals, at 79%, also hit, with three goals finding the net. Folgore’s home form shows a solid 1.67 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded, while Libertas, playing away against a stronger side, averaged 0.83 scored and 3.33 conceded. The model’s selection for the match’s outcome and the over 1.5 market both materialised, underscoring its accuracy for this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Folgore win✓ Hit
53.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Libertas win✗ Miss
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Folgore
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.90
1.29
1.07
1.19
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.15
1.23
1.17
1.50
1.14
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
1.67
0.42
1.67
0.50
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Libertas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
2.07
1.00
1.87
0.93
2.27
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
2.62
0.43
2.00
0.83
3.33
vs Similar (16)
1.19
1.62
1.50
1.75
0.88
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
9.3%
1-0
9.2%
0-0
6.8%
3-1
5.9%
1-2
5.8%
3-0 ✓
5.6%
Folgore goals ↓
Libertas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
5.0%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
1
9.2%
12%
5.8%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.8%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
5.6%
5.9%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.5%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Folgore goals (down), columns = Libertas goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Virtus
2.57
La Fiorita
2.40
Tre Fiori
1.89
Folgore
1.69
Cosmos
1.69
Tre Penne
1.56
San Giovanni
1.54
Fiorentino
1.39
Murata
1.26
Faetano
1.03
Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Domagnano
0.97
Libertas
0.87
Cailungo
0.77
Pennarossa
0.57
San Marino Academy
0.53
Folgore is 0.82 points better than Libertas in terms of average points per game (1.69 vs 0.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
La Fiorita
2.26
Virtus
2.20
Tre Fiori
1.97
Cosmos
1.91
San Giovanni
1.83
Tre Penne
1.53
Folgore
1.31
Cailungo
1.17
Murata
1.06
Fiorentino
1.06
Faetano
1.03
San Marino Academy
1.00
Domagnano
0.97
Libertas
0.97
Pennarossa
0.87
Juvenes / Dogana
0.81
Folgore is 0.35 goals better than Libertas in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.57
Virtus
0.60
Tre Fiori
0.91
Folgore
1.03
Tre Penne
1.09
Murata
1.10
Cosmos
1.11
Juvenes / Dogana
1.16
Fiorentino
1.21
San Giovanni
1.29
Domagnano
1.47
Faetano
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cailungo
2.20
San Marino Academy
2.27
Pennarossa
2.53
Folgore is 0.97 goals better than Libertas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Folgore
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Libertas
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Folgore
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (11)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Libertas
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Cosmos
10.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Penne
7.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
La Fiorita
4.5
Cosmos
4.5
Tre Penne
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Tre Penne
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Folgore
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.27
0.79
0.43
0.56
0.12
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.60
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.38
1.17
0.67
0.43
0.14
vs Weaker (12)
0.83
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Libertas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.73
0.27
0.73
0.20
0.73
vs Stronger (13)
0.00
0.92
0.00
0.86
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.56
0.50
0.62
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Folgore over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Folgore
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.50
0.64
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.85
0.00
0.83
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (12)
0.83
0.42
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Libertas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.33
0.73
1.13
0.73
1.53
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.69
0.43
1.14
0.83
2.33
vs Similar (16)
0.75
1.06
1.00
1.12
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Folgore over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Folgore and Libertas have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Folgore and Libertas have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Folgore and Libertas have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Folgore and Libertas have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
La Fiorita
Virtus
Tre Fiori
Cosmos
San Giovanni
Tre Penne
Fiorentino
Murata
Faetano
Juvenes / Dogana
Domagnano
Cailungo
Pennarossa
San Marino Academy