Folgore’s recent 5-game run of four wins and a loss, capped by a 5-0 triumph over Murata, fuels the model’s confidence in a home victory. The prediction model rates a home win at 70%, a draw at 19%, and an away win at 11%, making the home win the clear favourite. Folgore’s home form against weaker opposition averages four goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, while Libertas, playing away against stronger teams, averages just 0.75 goals scored and 3.0 conceded. The expected total of 3.1 goals translates to an average of three goals, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 for 11.8%. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 99%, Under 7.5 at 98.5%, Home +2 handicap at 96.7%, Under 6.5 at 96.0%, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.1%, Under 5.5 at 90.2%, Home over 0.5 goals at 90.2%, and Home or Draw at 89.4%. These selections reflect Folgore’s offensive potency and Libertas’s defensive frailty at home.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Folgore win
70.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Libertas win
10.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Folgore
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.17
2.27
1.20
2.13
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.67
1.33
1.67
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (14)
1.86
1.29
1.43
1.43
2.29
1.14
vs Weaker (10)
3.30
0.70
4.00
0.60
2.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Libertas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
2.13
1.21
2.36
0.88
1.94
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
3.33
0.86
3.71
0.75
3.00
vs Similar (13)
1.23
0.92
1.67
1.00
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-26pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.3%
Under 2.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.0%
Under 3.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.7%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
9.3%
1-1
9.1%
3-0
9.0%
3-1
7.4%
0-0
5.2%
4-0
5.2%
Folgore goals ↓
Libertas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
2.8%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
1
9.3%
9.1%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
2
12%
9.6%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
9.0%
7.4%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
5.2%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Folgore goals (down), columns = Libertas goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.00
Murata
1.75
Virtus
1.75
San Giovanni
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Penne
1.25
Cailungo
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Fiorentino
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Libertas
0.50
Folgore and Libertas are level in average points per game (both 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Fiori
1.86
Tre Penne
1.50
Virtus
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.33
Murata
1.25
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Fiorentino
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Libertas
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Folgore
0.00
Folgore is 0.75 goals worse than Libertas in terms of goals scored per game (0.00 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Folgore
0.50
Virtus
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Juvenes / Dogana
0.83
Tre Penne
1.00
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Murata
1.25
Faetano
1.50
Pennarossa
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cosmos
2.25
Fiorentino
2.50
Domagnano
2.50
Folgore is 1.50 goals better than Libertas in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Folgore or Draw
89.2%
Avg Implied -
70%
19%
11%
covers Folgore + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Folgore or Libertas
80.8%
Avg Implied -
70%
19%
11%
covers Folgore + Libertas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Libertas
30.0%
Avg Implied -
70%
19%
11%
covers Draw + Libertas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Folgore over/under 0.5
Over
90.0%
Under
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5
Over
67.0%
Under
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5
Over
40.5%
Under
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 3.5
Over
20.1%
Under
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 0.5
Over
55.8%
Under
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Folgore, so a minus line means Folgore give that many goals of a start and Libertas receive them. At -1, Folgore must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Folgore win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Folgore)
Folgore -2
26.5%
Draw -2
21.0%
Libertas +2
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Folgore)
Folgore -1
47.5%
Draw -1
22.4%
Libertas +1
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Folgore)
Folgore +1
89.2%
Draw +1
7.4%
Libertas -1
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Folgore)
Folgore +2
96.6%
Draw +2
2.6%
Libertas -2
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Folgore
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.13
0.60
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.86
0.57
0.86
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
0.30
2.20
0.40
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
53% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Libertas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.00
0.36
0.86
0.56
1.12
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
1.67
0.43
1.43
0.38
1.88
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.31
0.33
0.33
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Folgore over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Folgore
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.53
1.13
0.60
1.33
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.43
0.86
0.57
1.43
0.29
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
0.40
1.80
0.20
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Libertas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.86
1.50
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
1.67
0.43
2.29
0.38
1.12
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.62
1.33
0.67
0.14
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Folgore over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Folgore and Libertas have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Folgore and Libertas have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Folgore and Libertas have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Folgore and Libertas have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Domagnano
Cosmos
Virtus
La Fiorita
San Giovanni
Cailungo
San Marino Academy
Pennarossa
Faetano
Murata