Folgore enter the match on a strong 5-game run, having just beaten Murata 5-0, and the model sees them as the clear favourite, assigning a 67% chance of a home win and a 20% chance of a draw. The 13% away win probability reflects San Marino Academy’s recent slump, coming off a 0-2 loss. The expected total of 3.1 goals points to a reasonably high-scoring affair, with the most likely total of three goals carrying a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 11% chance, underscoring Folgore’s potent attack.
Folgore’s home form shows an average of four goals scored and only 0.6 conceded against weaker opponents, while San Marino Academy, playing away against stronger teams, averages zero goals scored and 1.7 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 99.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.7%, Under 7.5 at 98.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.4%, Under 6.5 at 96.0%, Home +2 handicap at 95.7%, Over 23.5 fouls at 93.9%, and Away under 2.5 goals at 93.8%. These selections reflect the high likelihood of a dominant home performance and a low-scoring away side.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Folgore win
66.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy win
12.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Folgore
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.17
2.27
1.20
2.13
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.67
1.33
1.67
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (14)
1.86
1.29
1.43
1.43
2.29
1.14
vs Weaker (10)
3.30
0.70
4.00
0.60
2.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (San Marino Academy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Marino Academy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.03
0.75
2.31
0.71
1.71
vs Stronger (21)
0.29
2.19
0.55
2.64
0.00
1.70
vs Similar (9)
1.78
1.67
1.20
1.60
2.50
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.4%
Under 2.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.1%
Under 3.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.6%
No
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.6%
1-0
8.9%
3-0
8.1%
3-1
7.3%
0-0
5.3%
4-0
4.5%
Folgore goals ↓
San Marino Academy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
3.1%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
1
8.9%
9.6%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
8.1%
7.3%
3.2%
1.0%
0.2%
4
4.5%
4.1%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Folgore goals (down), columns = San Marino Academy goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Folgore is 1.34 points better than San Marino Academy in terms of average points per game (1.88 vs 0.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Folgore is 1.39 goals better than San Marino Academy in terms of goals scored per game (2.16 vs 0.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Folgore is 0.88 goals better than San Marino Academy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Folgore
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
San Marino Academy
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Folgore
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
5.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (10)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (19)
5.0
5.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (San Marino Academy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Marino Academy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.0
-
12.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (34)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
12.0
-
12.0
0.2
0.0
0.4
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
100%
-
100%
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
0%
-
0%
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Fiori
7.7
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
5.3
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Tre Fiori
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
23.2%
Under 9.5
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.9%
Under 3.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.4%
Under 21.5
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Folgore or Draw
87.2%
Avg Implied -
67%
20%
13%
covers Folgore + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Folgore or San Marino Academy
79.6%
Avg Implied -
67%
20%
13%
covers Folgore + San Marino Academy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or San Marino Academy
33.2%
Avg Implied -
67%
20%
13%
covers Draw + San Marino Academy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Folgore over/under 0.5
Over
89.3%
Under
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5
Over
65.3%
Under
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5
Over
38.6%
Under
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 3.5
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 0.5
Over
59.1%
Under
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 1.5
Over
22.5%
Under
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 2.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Folgore, so a minus line means Folgore give that many goals of a start and San Marino Academy receive them. At -1, Folgore must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Folgore win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Folgore)
Folgore -2
24.0%
Draw -2
20.3%
San Marino Academy +2
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Folgore)
Folgore -1
44.3%
Draw -1
22.6%
San Marino Academy +1
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Folgore)
Folgore +1
87.2%
Draw +1
8.5%
San Marino Academy -1
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Folgore)
Folgore +2
95.7%
Draw +2
3.2%
San Marino Academy -2
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Folgore
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.13
0.60
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.86
0.57
0.86
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
0.30
2.20
0.40
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (San Marino Academy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Marino Academy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.97
0.25
1.19
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (21)
0.14
1.05
0.27
1.45
0.00
0.60
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.78
0.20
0.60
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Folgore over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Folgore
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.53
1.13
0.60
1.33
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.43
0.86
0.57
1.43
0.29
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
0.40
1.80
0.20
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (San Marino Academy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Marino Academy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.07
0.50
1.12
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (21)
0.14
1.14
0.27
1.18
0.00
1.10
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.89
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Folgore over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 19.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Folgore and San Marino Academy have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Folgore and San Marino Academy have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Folgore and San Marino Academy have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Folgore and San Marino Academy have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Domagnano
Libertas
Cosmos
La Fiorita
Virtus
San Giovanni
Cailungo
Pennarossa
Faetano
Murata