The match between Forfar and Annan Athletic is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win at 37%. Home and away win probabilities sit at 34% and 29% respectively, leaving the draw as the third option. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.9% chance. Forfar, playing at home against a similarly-sized opponent, averages 1.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded, while Annan Athletic, on the road, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 83.6%, Under 25.5 fouls at 83.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 77.9%, Under 3.5 at 74.7% (miss), Over 1.5 at 73.6%, Under 23.5 fouls at 71.2% (miss), and Over 2.5 cards at 70.7%. Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and no other outcome is given a win chance.
Results analysis
The upset was stark: the pre-match favourite, Away win, with a 37% probability, failed to deliver as Forfar secured a 5-1 victory. The model’s call was wrong. The final score of 5-1 matched the actual result of a home win, extending Forfar’s recent run of DLWDW after a 1-1 draw with Edinburgh City. The model’s selection of Under 5.5 cards hit, as did Under 25.5 fouls, Under 11.5 corners, Over 1.5, and Over 2.5 cards, all with probabilities of 83.6%, 83.4%, 77.9%, 73.6%, and 70.7% respectively. Under 3.5 and Under 23.5 fouls missed, with probabilities of 74.7% and 71.2%. The match proved far more high-scoring than the model’s most likely 2-goal outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forfar win✓ Hit
33.6%
Avg Implied 40.8% · @ 2.25
Edge
-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.28
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
37.2%
Avg Implied 31.2% · @ 2.94
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.07
1.79
1.00
1.25
1.12
vs Stronger (14)
1.36
0.71
1.71
0.43
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.62
1.38
1.86
1.57
1.44
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.30
1.93
1.60
1.73
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
2.27
1.27
2.43
1.57
2.12
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.17
1.33
1.00
1.67
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
3.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.9%
@ 1.85-3.5%
Under 2.5
53.1%
@ 1.88+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.3%
Under 3.5
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-0
9.1%
0-1
9.0%
1-0
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.0%
Forfar goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
9.0%
6.7%
2.9%
1.0%
1
8.4%
14%
8.3%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.0%
7.8%
5.2%
2.3%
0.7%
3
2.5%
3.2%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kelty Hearts
2.25
Forfar
1.67
Annan Athletic
1.64
Edinburgh City
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Stirling
1.17
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin
1.03
Cowdenbeath
0.81
Forfar is 0.03 points better than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kelty Hearts
1.89
Annan Athletic
1.78
Forfar
1.58
Stranraer
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Stirling
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.03
Elgin
0.92
Cowdenbeath
0.78
Forfar is 0.19 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kelty Hearts
0.78
Forfar
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stirling
1.28
Cowdenbeath
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Stranraer
1.50
Albion Rvs
1.61
Forfar is 0.42 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
For 6.6 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 9.3 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 3.5 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.7 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.1
9.8
3.4
3.1
3.6
22.3
21.5
23.0
vs Stronger (27)
9.3
8.8
9.9
3.4
2.8
4.0
22.1
20.9
23.5
vs Similar (20)
10.0
10.5
9.7
3.5
3.8
3.3
22.7
21.9
23.2
vs Weaker (3)
7.0
6.0
9.0
2.3
2.5
2.0
21.0
24.0
15.0
% over line
48%
50%
46%
52%
38%
65%
54%
54%
54%
% under line
52%
50%
54%
48%
62%
35%
46%
46%
46%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.7
9.2
4.0
3.5
4.4
22.1
22.2
22.0
vs Stronger (26)
9.2
10.2
8.4
4.2
3.7
4.6
21.6
22.6
20.8
vs Similar (19)
9.6
9.4
10.0
3.3
3.1
3.7
22.4
22.3
22.4
vs Weaker (5)
10.2
8.5
11.3
5.4
5.5
5.3
23.8
19.5
26.7
% over line
46%
54%
38%
60%
58%
62%
51%
40%
62%
% under line
54%
46%
62%
40%
42%
38%
49%
60%
38%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
9.7
Cowdenbeath
9.5
Annan Athletic
9.5
Forfar
9.5
Albion Rvs
9.2
Kelty Hearts
9.1
Stirling
9.0
Stranraer
9.0
Edinburgh City
8.9
Elgin
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Elgin
4.0
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Cowdenbeath
3.9
Stranraer
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.6
Forfar
3.4
Kelty Hearts
3.3
Edinburgh City
3.2
Albion Rvs
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stirling
22.8
Elgin
22.4
Forfar
22.3
Cowdenbeath
22.2
Annan Athletic
22.1
Stranraer
22.1
Stenhousemuir
21.6
Albion Rvs
21.4
Edinburgh City
20.2
Kelty Hearts
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
44.4%
Under 9.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.7%
Under 3.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
44.7%
Under 21.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.43
0.71
0.75
0.31
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.21
0.43
0.29
0.57
0.14
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.75
0.43
1.14
0.89
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
0.67
0.93
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (15)
0.87
0.80
0.71
1.00
1.00
0.62
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.67
0.17
0.83
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
1.36
0.29
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
0.50
1.29
0.14
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.62
1.43
0.43
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
1.27
0.67
0.87
0.40
vs Stronger (15)
1.40
0.47
1.71
0.57
1.12
0.38
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.67
0.83
0.83
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Forfar and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kelty Hearts
Edinburgh City
Stenhousemuir
Stranraer
Stirling
Elgin
Cowdenbeath