Forfar are tipped to win this encounter, the model favouring a home victory with a 47% probability, a draw at 26% and an away win at 28%. The average number of goals expected is 3.1, yet the most likely total is two, with a 23% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.8% probability. Forfar’s home form shows they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded against similarly strong opposition, while Annan Athletic, on the road, average 1.33 goals scored and 2.17 conceded. Suggested picks from the model include Over 1.5 goals at 82.2%, Under 25.5 fouls at 80.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.8% (miss), Under 5.5 cards at 76.8% and Under 11.5 corners at 75.3%. The match is poised to be a closely contested affair, with Forfar’s recent draw against Edinburgh City and Annan Athletic’s win over Dumbarton setting the stage.
Results analysis
An unexpected turnaround saw Annan Athletic snatch a 1-4 victory, overturning the pre-match favourite, Forfar, who had been tipped to win with a 47% probability. The model’s prediction of a home win was wrong. The game’s final score of 1-4 confirmed an away win, a result that the model had not anticipated. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.2% chance, hit, as did Under 25.5 fouls at 80.2%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.8%, and Under 11.5 corners at 75.3%. However, Over 2.5 cards, projected at 77.8%, missed. The match also saw Forfar’s recent form dip after a draw, while Annan Athletic continued a winning streak coming off a 2-0 win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forfar win✗ Miss
46.8%
Avg Implied 42.5% · @ 2.15
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.39
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic win✓ Hit
27.7%
Avg Implied 30.5% · @ 3.00
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.17
1.40
1.27
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
0.86
1.17
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (16)
1.25
1.44
1.56
1.44
0.86
1.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.77
1.53
1.60
1.47
1.93
vs Stronger (12)
1.83
2.17
1.80
2.40
1.86
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.64
1.12
1.25
1.33
2.17
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.00
2.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.2%
@ 1.74+5.8%
Under 2.5
40.8%
@ 2.00-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.8%
Under 3.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.6%
No
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
7.2%
1-0
7.1%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.7%
3-1
5.5%
Forfar goals ↓
Annan Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
5.0%
4.0%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.1%
12%
7.0%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.2%
9.4%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.2%
5.5%
3.6%
1.6%
0.5%
4
1.8%
2.4%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Annan Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Forfar is 0.08 points worse than Annan Athletic in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Forfar is 0.67 goals worse than Annan Athletic in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.69).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Forfar is 0.22 goals better than Annan Athletic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
For 5.4 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 10.8 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
For 4.0 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 12.5 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.5
9.4
3.4
3.0
3.8
22.6
21.3
23.9
vs Stronger (24)
9.3
9.0
9.6
3.4
2.5
4.2
22.0
20.5
23.4
vs Similar (26)
9.6
9.9
9.2
3.4
3.4
3.3
23.1
22.0
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
56%
40%
52%
36%
68%
50%
48%
52%
% under line
52%
44%
60%
48%
64%
32%
50%
52%
48%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.4
9.2
4.0
3.6
4.3
22.0
22.1
21.9
vs Stronger (22)
8.6
9.9
7.6
4.0
3.3
4.5
21.0
20.8
21.2
vs Similar (22)
10.0
9.5
10.5
3.5
3.4
3.7
22.5
23.6
21.2
vs Weaker (6)
9.2
7.3
11.0
5.7
5.7
5.7
23.7
20.3
27.0
% over line
44%
48%
40%
62%
60%
64%
53%
42%
64%
% under line
56%
52%
60%
38%
40%
36%
47%
58%
36%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
10.3
Dumbarton
10.1
Forfar
9.5
Annan Athletic
9.3
Stranraer
9.2
Albion Rvs
8.8
East Fife
8.7
Stirling
8.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
8.6
Elgin
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.5
Dumbarton
4.3
Stranraer
4.3
Elgin
4.2
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Stenhousemuir
3.9
East Fife
3.5
Albion Rvs
3.5
Forfar
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Elgin
23.0
Stranraer
22.7
Forfar
22.6
Stirling
22.2
Annan Athletic
22.0
Bonnyrigg Rose
21.8
Dumbarton
21.5
Stenhousemuir
21.4
Albion Rvs
21.2
East Fife
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.8%
Under 9.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.8%
Under 3.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
49.5%
Under 21.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.53
0.87
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.43
0.33
0.67
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.81
0.67
1.00
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.03
0.67
0.87
0.67
1.20
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.25
0.60
1.60
0.86
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.93
0.38
0.50
0.67
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.75
2.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.87
0.40
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
0.43
0.83
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.62
0.89
0.44
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
0.87
0.73
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (12)
1.08
0.92
1.20
0.80
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.71
0.75
0.75
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Forfar and Annan Athletic have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Forfar and Annan Athletic have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Forfar and Annan Athletic have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stirling
Dumbarton
East Fife
Stenhousemuir
Stranraer
Elgin