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Forfar vs Cowdenbeath Result & Analysis

Date: 12/03/2016
Time: 00:00
Final 1-1
Forfar
Forfar
Vs
49%
24%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Scotland: League One
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Forfar win✗ Miss
48.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath win✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ForfarForfar

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-424L01L11D23L12L41W10W04L01L11DH·DUN26/12H·STE23/01H·STR06/02A·PET13/02A·AYR20/02A·COW23/02H·ALB27/02A·BRE01/03A·STR05/03A·AIR08/03
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.291.681.311.691.271.67
vs Stronger (21)1.331.861.221.891.421.83
vs Similar (7)1.141.141.501.250.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %18% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L02L02L12L22D23L14L32W14L13LA·DUN02/01H·STR23/01A·AIR06/02H·ALB09/02A·BRE13/02H·PET20/02H·FOR23/02A·STE27/02A·AYR01/03H·AIR05/03
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.432.321.641.641.213.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.322.531.891.330.803.60
vs Weaker (9)1.671.891.202.202.251.50
Clean sheet %21% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.6%
Under 2.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.1%
No
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.5%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
6.0%
1-0
5.7%
0-0
4.4%
Forfar goals ↓
Cowdenbeath goals →
01234
04.4%3.9%3.5%1.7%0.6%
15.7%10%6.8%3.2%1.2%
26.5%9.3%6.6%3.1%1.1%
34.2%6.0%4.3%2.0%0.7%
42.1%2.9%2.1%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Cowdenbeath goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dunfermline
2.19
Ayr
1.69
Peterhead
1.64
Stranraer
1.42
Albion Rvs
1.36
Airdrie United
1.36
Brechin
1.17
Stenhousemuir
1.11
Cowdenbeath
1.08
Forfar
0.94
Forfar is 0.14 points worse than Cowdenbeath in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.08).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dunfermline
2.31
Peterhead
2.00
Ayr
1.81
Forfar
1.33
Airdrie United
1.33
Brechin
1.31
Cowdenbeath
1.28
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stranraer
1.19
Albion Rvs
1.11
Forfar is 0.06 goals better than Cowdenbeath in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.28).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dunfermline
0.83
Albion Rvs
1.22
Ayr
1.31
Peterhead
1.31
Stranraer
1.36
Airdrie United
1.39
Brechin
1.64
Forfar
1.67
Cowdenbeath
2.00
Stenhousemuir
2.22
Forfar is 0.33 goals better than Cowdenbeath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 2.00).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

ForfarForfar

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

ForfarForfar

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (28)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (21)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (7)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (28)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (19)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (9)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Not collected for this league yet.

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Not collected for this league yet.

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ForfarForfar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L01L22D01L21W00D02L00D10WH·DUN26/12H·STE23/01H·STR06/02A·PET13/02A·AYR20/02A·COW23/02H·ALB27/02A·BRE01/03A·STR05/03A·AIR08/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.610.820.620.920.600.73
vs Stronger (21)0.570.900.440.890.670.92
vs Similar (7)0.710.571.001.000.330.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %36% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D01L11D11D12L12L00D03L01LA·DUN02/01H·STR23/01A·AIR06/02H·ALB09/02A·BRE13/02H·PET20/02H·FOR23/02A·STE27/02A·AYR01/03H·AIR05/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.611.000.860.640.361.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.631.211.000.670.301.70
vs Weaker (9)0.560.560.600.600.500.50
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ForfarForfar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L00D10W01L11D20W10W02L01L01LH·DUN26/12H·STE23/01H·STR06/02A·PET13/02A·AYR20/02A·COW23/02H·ALB27/02A·BRE01/03A·STR05/03A·AIR08/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.680.860.690.770.670.93
vs Stronger (21)0.760.950.781.000.750.92
vs Similar (7)0.430.570.500.250.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Cowdenbeath) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L01L01L11D11D02L32W11D12LA·DUN02/01H·STR23/01A·AIR06/02H·ALB09/02A·BRE13/02H·PET20/02H·FOR23/02A·STE27/02A·AYR01/03H·AIR05/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.821.320.791.000.861.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.681.320.890.670.501.90
vs Weaker (9)1.111.330.601.601.751.00
Clean sheet %21% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cowdenbeath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (26)
€4m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
STE (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (4)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
FOR wins
0
Draws
2
COW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Forfar vs Cowdenbeath · H/A from FOR
DateH/AGameScore
23/02/16ACowdenbeath Vs FOR1-4
12/12/15HFOR Vs Cowdenbeath0-1
19/09/15ACowdenbeath Vs FOR2-1

ForfarForfar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/16AAirdrie United Vs FOR1-1
05/03/16AStranraer Vs FOR1-0
01/03/16ABrechin Vs FOR4-0
27/02/16HFOR Vs Albion Rvs1-0
23/02/16ACowdenbeath Vs FOR1-4
20/02/16AAyr Vs FOR2-1
13/02/16APeterhead Vs FOR3-2
06/02/16HFOR Vs Stranraer1-1
23/01/16HFOR Vs Stenhousemuir0-1
26/12/15HFOR Vs Dunfermline2-4

CowdenbeathCowdenbeath

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/03/16HCOW Vs Airdrie United1-3
01/03/16AAyr Vs COW4-1
27/02/16AStenhousemuir Vs COW2-3
23/02/16HCOW Vs Forfar1-4
20/02/16HCOW Vs Peterhead2-3
13/02/16ABrechin Vs COW2-2
09/02/16HCOW Vs Albion Rvs1-2
06/02/16AAirdrie United Vs COW2-0
23/01/16HCOW Vs Stranraer0-2
02/01/16ADunfermline Vs COW2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Forfar
Forfar
Scotland: League One
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLD0.93
HomeLLLDW0.85
AwayLWLLD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %21%23%20%
AVG goals2.963.002.93
Over 1.5 %75%69%80%
Over 2.5 %57%54%60%
Over 3.5 %46%46%47%
Scored1.291.311.27
Conceded1.681.691.67
BTTS54%46%60%
Clean Sheet18%15%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
Scotland: League One
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.00
HomeLLLLL1.29
AwayLLDWL0.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%36%21%
AVG goals3.753.294.21
Over 1.5 %89%86%93%
Over 2.5 %79%79%79%
Over 3.5 %50%43%57%
Scored1.431.641.21
Conceded2.321.643.00
BTTS61%64%57%
Clean Sheet21%29%14%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DunfermlineDunfermline3679
67%
2.2
8330+53
3.1
78%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2022.30.8
-
2
A
Ayr
3661
53%
1.7
6547+18
3.1
81%
69%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
-
3PeterheadPeterhead3659
44%
1.6
7247+25
3.3
78%
56%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.3
-
4StranraerStranraer3651
42%
1.4
4349-6
2.6
67%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
5Airdrie UnitedAirdrie United3649
39%
1.4
4850-2
2.7
78%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
6
AR
Albion Rvs
3649
36%
1.4
4044-4
2.3
67%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
7BrechinBrechin3642
33%
1.2
4759-12
2.9
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
8StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3640
31%
1.1
4680-34
3.5
78%
69%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.2
-
9CowdenbeathCowdenbeath3639
31%
1.1
4672-26
3.3
78%
67%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
10ForfarForfar3634
22%
0.9
4860-12
3.0
81%
58%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
Scotland: League One 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →

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