This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.87
1.87
1.53
1.60
2.20
vs Stronger (21)
1.86
1.86
2.09
1.45
1.60
2.30
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.89
1.25
1.75
1.60
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.9%
Under 1.5
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.1%
Under 2.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.4%
Under 3.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.7%
No
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
6.6%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
6.4%
1-0
5.6%
3-0
4.5%
Forfar goals ↓
Dumbarton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
3.5%
3.1%
1.5%
0.5%
1
5.6%
10%
6.4%
3.0%
1.0%
2
6.6%
9.3%
6.6%
3.1%
1.1%
3
4.5%
6.4%
4.5%
2.1%
0.7%
4
2.3%
3.3%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Dumbarton goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Arbroath
1.94
Forfar
1.75
Raith Rvs
1.67
Montrose
1.42
Airdrie United
1.33
Dumbarton
1.28
East Fife
1.28
Stranraer
1.17
Stenhousemuir
1.03
Brechin
1.00
Forfar is 0.47 points better than Dumbarton in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.28).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Raith Rvs
2.08
Arbroath
1.75
Dumbarton
1.67
Forfar
1.50
Airdrie United
1.42
Montrose
1.36
East Fife
1.36
Stranraer
1.25
Brechin
1.17
Stenhousemuir
0.97
Forfar is 0.17 goals worse than Dumbarton in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.67).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arbroath
1.06
Airdrie United
1.22
Forfar
1.31
Raith Rvs
1.36
Montrose
1.39
East Fife
1.56
Stranraer
1.58
Dumbarton
1.67
Brechin
1.69
Stenhousemuir
1.69
Forfar is 0.36 goals better than Dumbarton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.67).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
For 4.7 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.2
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 9.9 · Total 20.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dumbarton
For 4.9 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.2
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.2 · Against 8.7 · Total 16.9
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.2
11.0
3.5
3.6
3.5
20.4
19.9
21.0
vs Stronger (38)
10.3
8.9
11.7
3.9
3.9
3.9
21.3
20.5
22.1
vs Similar (12)
9.6
10.2
9.0
2.3
2.5
2.2
17.8
18.0
17.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
40%
64%
52%
56%
48%
44%
44%
44%
% under line
48%
60%
36%
48%
44%
52%
56%
56%
56%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.9
10.1
3.1
3.4
2.8
19.5
19.6
19.5
vs Stronger (40)
10.3
10.7
9.9
3.2
3.5
2.9
19.1
19.1
19.1
vs Similar (10)
11.5
12.0
11.0
2.6
2.6
2.6
21.0
21.2
20.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
68%
60%
38%
44%
32%
26%
20%
32%
% under line
36%
32%
40%
62%
56%
68%
74%
80%
68%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
10.9
Airdrie United
10.7
East Fife
10.7
Dumbarton
10.5
Arbroath
10.2
Forfar
10.1
Stranraer
10.1
Brechin
10.0
Raith Rvs
9.8
Montrose
9.5
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Raith Rvs
3.8
Montrose
3.8
Arbroath
3.7
Brechin
3.6
Forfar
3.5
Stenhousemuir
3.3
Airdrie United
3.3
Dumbarton
3.1
Stranraer
3.1
East Fife
2.7
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montrose
23.4
Brechin
22.5
Arbroath
21.3
Airdrie United
21.2
Raith Rvs
21.1
East Fife
20.8
Forfar
20.4
Stenhousemuir
20.2
Stranraer
20.1
Dumbarton
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.6%
Under 9.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.8%
Under 3.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
32.0%
Under 21.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.80
0.67
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (21)
0.67
0.95
0.90
0.90
0.45
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.44
0.60
0.20
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.67
1.07
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (21)
0.90
0.76
0.73
1.00
1.10
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.56
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
1.07
0.33
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (21)
0.67
0.62
1.00
0.40
0.36
0.82
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.56
1.20
0.20
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbarton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.03
1.20
0.47
0.67
1.60
vs Stronger (21)
0.95
1.10
1.36
0.45
0.50
1.80
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.89
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (15)
€1m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Forfar and Dumbarton have a similar squad value (both €0m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (5)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARB (7)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Forfar and Dumbarton have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arbroath
Montrose
Airdrie United
East Fife
Stranraer
Stenhousemuir
Brechin