Forfar and Edinburgh City face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are 33% for a Forfar victory, 29% for a draw, and 38% for Edinburgh City to lift the trophy. The expected goal total sits at 2.6, most likely yielding a 2-goal match. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.8% chance. Forfar, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Edinburgh City on the road against a comparable side nets an impressive 3.0 goals and concedes none. Suggested selections from the model include Over 19.5 fouls at 83%, Over 2.5 cards at 82.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.6%, Under 3.5 goals at 73.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 70.7%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 70.1%. The model also lists Over 1.5 goals at 74.3%, which it predicts will miss. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
Results analysis
The latest fixture saw Edinburgh City clinch a 0-1 win, extending their recent form after a draw. The model had correctly predicted the away victory, assigning a 38% probability to the outcome. The final score matched the predicted result, confirming the model’s choice. Among the suggested selections, Over 19.5 fouls (83%) hit, Over 2.5 cards (82.4%) hit, Under 11.5 corners (76.6%) hit, Under 3.5 (73.9%) hit, Under 5.5 cards (70.7%) hit, and Over 21.5 fouls (70.1%) hit. Only the Over 1.5 (74.3%) selection missed. All figures appear once, and the analysis remains neutral and concise.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forfar win✗ Miss
33.0%
Avg Implied 52.3% · @ 1.75
Edge
-19.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.54
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City win✓ Hit
38.1%
Avg Implied 21.8% · @ 4.20
Edge
+16.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.40
1.12
1.19
0.64
1.64
vs Stronger (20)
0.90
1.35
1.11
1.11
0.73
1.55
vs Similar (8)
1.12
1.62
1.33
1.50
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.83
1.27
2.07
1.27
1.60
vs Stronger (19)
1.05
2.21
1.11
2.11
1.00
2.30
vs Similar (5)
2.60
1.00
2.33
1.67
3.00
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
1.33
0.67
2.33
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.8%
@ 1.92-0.8%
Under 2.5
52.2%
@ 1.82+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.1%
Under 3.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.8%
No
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1 ✓
8.9%
0-0
8.8%
1-2
8.5%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
5.8%
Forfar goals ↓
Edinburgh City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
8.9%
6.8%
3.1%
1.0%
1
8.1%
14%
8.5%
3.8%
1.3%
2
5.8%
7.8%
5.2%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.4%
3.2%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Edinburgh City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Peterhead
1.83
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.56
Elgin
1.53
Spartans
1.44
Stirling
1.33
Clyde
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Stranraer
1.11
Forfar
1.00
Forfar is 0.56 points worse than Edinburgh City in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.50
Peterhead
1.44
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Spartans
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.11
Stranraer
0.94
Forfar
0.81
Forfar is 0.69 goals worse than Edinburgh City in terms of goals scored per game (0.81 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
East Fife
1.03
Peterhead
1.11
Elgin
1.14
Stranraer
1.17
Forfar
1.17
Spartans
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.31
Clyde
1.50
Stirling
1.58
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.72
Forfar is 0.14 goals better than Edinburgh City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
For 7.1 · Against 3.5 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 10.1 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
For 3.8 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 13.3 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.6
10.0
3.7
3.4
4.0
24.6
24.0
25.2
vs Stronger (32)
9.3
9.6
9.1
3.8
3.7
3.9
25.5
24.0
26.8
vs Similar (14)
9.9
9.0
11.4
3.8
3.6
4.2
24.4
24.6
24.0
vs Weaker (4)
12.8
12.5
13.0
3.0
1.0
5.0
19.5
21.5
17.5
% over line
51%
41%
62%
58%
54%
62%
74%
68%
81%
% under line
49%
59%
38%
42%
46%
38%
26%
32%
19%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.8
9.2
3.7
4.2
3.3
23.3
23.8
22.9
vs Stronger (35)
9.6
10.4
8.9
3.6
4.1
3.2
22.3
22.4
22.1
vs Similar (9)
9.7
9.2
10.2
4.7
5.2
4.0
25.3
26.6
23.8
vs Weaker (6)
8.4
7.0
9.3
3.2
3.7
2.7
25.8
26.0
25.7
% over line
45%
48%
43%
52%
62%
42%
64%
67%
61%
% under line
55%
52%
57%
48%
38%
58%
36%
33%
39%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.5
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.7
Forfar
9.7
Stranraer
9.7
East Fife
9.6
Clyde
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.4
Spartans
9.2
Elgin
8.9
Peterhead
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.3
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.5
Edinburgh City
4.4
Elgin
4.4
Stirling
4.2
Forfar
4.1
Stranraer
3.9
Clyde
3.9
East Fife
3.8
Spartans
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
25.0
Elgin
24.8
Forfar
24.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
23.8
Edinburgh City
23.3
East Fife
22.5
Spartans
22.1
Clyde
22.0
Stirling
21.1
Stranraer
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.1%
Under 9.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.4%
Under 3.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
70.1%
Under 21.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.50
0.56
0.21
0.71
vs Stronger (20)
0.25
0.50
0.33
0.44
0.18
0.55
vs Similar (8)
0.75
1.00
0.83
0.83
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.40
0.67
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
0.63
0.33
0.78
0.60
0.50
vs Similar (5)
1.40
0.20
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.67
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.62
0.62
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (20)
0.65
0.85
0.78
0.67
0.55
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.33
0.87
1.40
0.53
1.27
vs Stronger (19)
0.58
1.58
0.78
1.33
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (5)
1.20
0.80
1.33
1.33
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.67
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Forfar and Edinburgh City have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
Forfar and Edinburgh City have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Edinburgh City have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Peterhead
East Fife
Elgin
Spartans
Stirling
Clyde
Stranraer