The model favours an away win, with Edinburgh City expected to edge Forfar 42% to 28% for a home win and 31% for a draw. The average goal tally is 2.3, so a 2-goal total is most likely, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 14.4%. Forfar, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Edinburgh City, on the road, averages 1.25 scored and 1.0 conceded. The suggested picks are: Over 2.5 cards88%, Under 3.580.7%, Over 19.5 fouls80.1%, Over 3.5 cards74.3%, and Under 11.5 corners74%. The model’s selections are all independent of the match-result probabilities. This game should see a tight contest, but the edge lies with Edinburgh City, who have recently drawn 1-1 against Forfar and are poised to win again.
Results analysis
The match ended 2-3 in favour of Edinburgh City, a result that mirrored the model’s pre-match favourite and probability of 42%. The win extended both sides’ recent runs, each coming off a 1-1 draw. The total goals far exceeded the model’s expected 2.3, with the actual 5-goal tally well beyond the predicted most likely total of 2. The model’s favourite was correct. The suggested picks performed as follows: Over 2.5 cards hit at 88%; Under 3.5 missed at 80.7%; Over 19.5 fouls hit at 80.1%; Over 3.5 cards hit at 74.3%; Under 11.5 corners missed at 74.0%. All figures are presented once, with probabilities expressed as percentages.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forfar win✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied 37.3% · @ 2.40
Edge
-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.24
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City win✓ Hit
41.6%
Avg Implied 35.0% · @ 2.56
Edge
+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.30
0.80
1.13
1.13
1.47
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.71
0.44
1.33
0.60
2.40
vs Similar (13)
1.62
1.08
1.60
1.00
1.62
1.12
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.93
1.60
1.80
1.07
2.07
vs Stronger (14)
1.43
2.36
2.00
1.83
1.00
2.75
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.33
1.60
1.60
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
1.86
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.3%
Under 1.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.3%
@ 1.76-12.4%
Under 2.5
60.7%
@ 1.89+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.3%
Under 3.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.5%
No
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-1
12.0%
0-0
11.7%
1-0
9.0%
0-2
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
5.1%
Forfar goals ↓
Edinburgh City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
12%
8.4%
3.6%
1.1%
1
9.0%
14%
8.3%
3.5%
1.1%
2
5.1%
6.5%
4.1%
1.7%
0.6%
3
1.7%
2.1%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Edinburgh City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Forfar is 0.31 points better than Edinburgh City in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Forfar is 0.17 goals better than Edinburgh City in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Forfar is 0.69 goals better than Edinburgh City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
For 2.8 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 12.5 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
For 4.7 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 10.6 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.2
9.3
4.2
4.0
4.5
24.9
24.1
25.7
vs Stronger (25)
9.1
9.3
8.9
4.1
3.6
4.7
25.4
23.5
27.6
vs Similar (20)
8.8
9.4
8.3
4.3
4.4
4.3
26.0
26.2
25.8
vs Weaker (5)
11.2
7.5
13.7
4.4
4.0
4.7
19.2
18.5
19.7
% over line
40%
30%
50%
66%
58%
73%
81%
75%
86%
% under line
60%
70%
50%
34%
42%
27%
19%
25%
14%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.8
8.9
4.5
4.6
4.4
24.5
25.7
23.4
vs Stronger (26)
9.5
9.9
9.1
4.2
4.1
4.3
24.8
25.8
24.0
vs Similar (13)
9.1
9.1
9.0
5.2
5.7
4.5
24.8
26.0
23.5
vs Weaker (11)
9.3
10.4
8.2
4.3
4.2
4.4
23.5
25.0
22.0
% over line
43%
48%
38%
72%
72%
72%
74%
81%
67%
% under line
57%
52%
62%
28%
28%
28%
26%
19%
33%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
11.7
Dumbarton
10.8
Stirling
10.6
Elgin
10.1
Stranraer
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.6
Clyde
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Forfar
9.1
Spartans
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.3
Forfar
5.0
Elgin
4.9
Clyde
4.6
Stranraer
4.6
Stirling
4.5
Spartans
4.4
Annan Athletic
3.9
Dumbarton
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
27.7
Forfar
24.8
Edinburgh City
24.4
Elgin
23.7
Clyde
22.6
Stranraer
21.9
Stirling
21.4
Spartans
21.3
Annan Athletic
20.7
Dumbarton
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
49.2%
Under 9.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.3%
Under 3.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.1%
Under 21.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.60
0.53
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.93
0.33
0.67
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.31
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.87
0.93
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
0.86
1.17
1.00
0.38
0.75
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.67
0.60
1.00
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.71
0.75
0.75
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.70
0.20
0.60
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
0.79
0.11
0.67
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.77
0.40
0.60
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.17
0.73
0.87
0.60
1.47
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
1.50
0.83
0.83
0.62
2.00
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.67
1.00
0.60
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
1.14
0.25
1.25
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Forfar and Edinburgh City have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
Forfar and Edinburgh City have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Edinburgh City have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
East Kilbride
Spartans
Clyde
Stranraer
Elgin
Annan Athletic
Dumbarton
Stirling