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Forfar vs Edinburgh City Result & Analysis

Date: 25/04/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 4-0
Forfar
Forfar
Vs
49%
28%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Forfar a 49% win probability against Edinburgh City in the Scotland: League Two on 2026-04-25, with 28% for the draw and 23% for Edinburgh City. The model estimates around 2.5 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.4%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (76%), Over 1.5 (73%).

Results analysis

Forfar finished 4-0 against Edinburgh City (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 49% home win, 28% draw and 23% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (73%). Missed: Under 3.5 (76%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Forfar win✓ Hit
49.3%
Avg Implied 75.0% · @ 1.20
Edge
-25.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied 16.5% · @ 5.46
Edge
+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City win✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied 8.6% · @ 10.50
Edge
+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ForfarForfar

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D30W01L11D02L22D21W10W10WA·EDI28/02H·CLY07/03A·STI14/03A·SPA17/03H·SPA21/03A·ELG24/03A·DUM28/03H·ELG04/04H·EAS11/04A·STR18/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.431.401.271.331.60
vs Stronger (11)1.001.911.501.330.402.60
vs Similar (13)1.851.151.501.332.141.00
vs Weaker (6)1.001.171.001.001.001.33
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L03L00D41W03L03L01L03L02L04LA·CLY21/02A·ELG24/02H·FOR28/02H·STR07/03A·ANN14/03H·ELG21/03A·STI28/03H·SPA04/04H·CLY11/04A·EAS18/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.032.031.202.400.871.67
vs Stronger (11)0.552.180.672.670.401.60
vs Similar (9)1.001.561.001.751.001.40
vs Weaker (10)1.602.302.002.601.202.00
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.9%
@ 1.64-10.0%
Under 2.5
54.1%
@ 2.08+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
11.3%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
9.3%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
4.9%
Forfar goals ↓
Edinburgh City goals →
01234
09.3%6.7%3.8%1.2%0.3%
111%13%5.9%1.9%0.5%
29.6%9.3%4.5%1.5%0.4%
34.9%4.8%2.3%0.8%0.2%
41.9%1.8%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Edinburgh City goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Forfar is 0.31 points better than Edinburgh City in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.08).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Forfar is 0.17 goals better than Edinburgh City in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.25).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Forfar is 0.69 goals better than Edinburgh City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 2.00).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

ForfarForfar

For 4.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.7

ðŸšĐ Corners

1401543642615267591684267108681210146A·STRH·EASH·ELGA·DUMA·ELGH·SPAA·SPAA·STIH·CLYA·EDI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.7

ðŸŸĻ Cards

7052144212111211131317561323244A·STRH·EASH·ELGA·DUMA·ELGH·SPAA·SPAA·STIH·CLYA·EDI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 12.3 · Total 23.1

⚠ïļ Fouls

350911517181791291610101410912101015820223521252024212023A·STRH·EASH·ELGA·DUMA·ELGH·SPAA·SPAA·STIH·CLYA·EDI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City

For 3.1 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.1

ðŸšĐ Corners

16012355116733224524462512816136496107A·EASH·CLYH·SPAA·STIH·ELGA·ANNH·STRH·FORA·ELGA·CLY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.1

ðŸŸĻ Cards

80422122314244231322346344685447A·EASH·CLYH·SPAA·STIH·ELGA·ANNH·STRH·FORA·ELGA·CLY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 12.1 · Total 24.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

310159138410101012152088188151516141224211420272826233126A·EASH·CLYH·SPAA·STIH·ELGA·ANNH·STRH·FORA·ELGA·CLY
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ForfarForfar

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.99.18.64.54.24.724.323.824.8
vs Stronger (20)8.98.89.05.04.75.325.424.226.5
vs Similar (18)8.29.46.93.83.93.724.424.724.1
vs Weaker (12)9.89.210.34.73.85.322.321.223.1
% over line40%38%42%66%62%69%74%71%77%
% under line60%62%58%34%38%31%26%29%23%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.29.19.25.25.05.324.124.723.5
vs Stronger (20)9.69.19.95.55.75.524.625.224.0
vs Similar (15)8.77.99.74.94.85.124.124.423.7
vs Weaker (15)9.110.67.94.94.65.123.424.322.6
% over line44%38%50%82%79%85%70%71%69%
% under line56%62%50%18%21%15%30%29%31%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.8
East Kilbride
10.6
Dumbarton
10.5
Elgin
10.3
Stranraer
10.1
Annan Athletic
9.8
Clyde
9.6
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Forfar
8.9

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.2
Forfar
4.5
Clyde
4.4
Elgin
4.3
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.2
Stirling
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.1
Dumbarton
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
26.6
Forfar
24.3
Edinburgh City
24.1
Elgin
22.4
Clyde
22.3
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.1
Stirling
20.8
Dumbarton
20.3
Spartans
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
50.3%
Under 9.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
65.2%
Under 3.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
62.4%
Under 21.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸ”Ē 6. Odd / Even

ðŸĨ… 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 8. Handicap

ðŸ”Ĩ 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.5%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.572.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Forfar vs Edinburgh City · H/A from FOR
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/26AEdinburgh City Vs FOR0-0
20/12/25HFOR Vs Edinburgh City2-3
27/09/25AEdinburgh City Vs FOR1-1
26/04/25AEdinburgh City Vs FOR0-0
08/02/25HFOR Vs Edinburgh City0-1
02/11/24AEdinburgh City Vs FOR2-0
24/08/24HFOR Vs Edinburgh City0-3
09/04/22AEdinburgh City Vs FOR2-0

ForfarForfar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26AStranraer Vs FOR0-1
11/04/26HFOR Vs East Kilbride1-0
04/04/26HFOR Vs Elgin2-1
28/03/26ADumbarton Vs FOR2-2
24/03/26AElgin Vs FOR2-0
21/03/26HFOR Vs Spartans1-1
17/03/26ASpartans Vs FOR1-0
14/03/26AStirling Vs FOR0-3
07/03/26HFOR Vs Clyde1-1
28/02/26AEdinburgh City Vs FOR0-0

Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26AEast Kilbride Vs EC4-0
11/04/26HEC Vs Clyde0-2
04/04/26HEC Vs Spartans0-3
28/03/26AStirling Vs EC1-0
21/03/26HEC Vs Elgin0-3
14/03/26AAnnan Athletic Vs EC3-0
07/03/26HEC Vs Stranraer4-1
28/02/26HEC Vs Forfar0-0
24/02/26AElgin Vs EC3-0
21/02/26AClyde Vs EC5-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Forfar
Forfar
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWW1.34
HomeWDDWW1.42
AwayWLLDW1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%38%31%
AVG goals2.362.252.46
Over 1.5 %64%58%69%
Over 2.5 %40%33%46%
Over 3.5 %28%21%35%
Scored1.161.121.19
Conceded1.201.121.27
BTTS46%42%50%
Clean Sheet34%33%35%
Corners8.869.128.62
Cards4.484.214.73
Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.28
HomeDWLLL1.12
AwayLLLLL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%29%42%
AVG goals3.123.582.69
Over 1.5 %82%88%77%
Over 2.5 %62%71%54%
Over 3.5 %38%54%23%
Scored1.341.621.08
Conceded1.781.961.62
BTTS56%62%50%
Clean Sheet20%17%23%
Corners9.189.129.23
Cards5.165.045.27

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1East KilbrideEast Kilbride3669
58%
1.9
7746+31
3.4
92%
69%
50%
10.4
58%
5.6
83%
26.4
81%
0
0002.11.3
-
2SpartansSpartans3664
50%
1.8
6039+21
2.8
83%
53%
28%
9.4
47%
4.0
58%
19.9
33%
0
0001.71.1
-
3ClydeClyde3656
39%
1.6
5841+17
2.8
83%
53%
33%
9.8
42%
4.1
61%
21.4
44%
0
0001.61.1
-
4ForfarForfar3650
36%
1.4
5147+4
2.7
72%
50%
36%
9.2
50%
4.1
58%
23.8
67%
0
0001.41.3
-
5StranraerStranraer3647
33%
1.3
4646+0
2.6
78%
50%
28%
11.0
63%
4.3
66%
22.5
57%
0
0001.31.3
-
6ElginElgin3644
31%
1.2
5155-4
2.9
86%
56%
25%
10.5
60%
4.2
60%
22.8
60%
0
0001.41.5
-
7Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3641
28%
1.1
4758-11
2.9
78%
56%
36%
9.9
50%
4.4
64%
23.8
72%
0
0001.31.6
-
8DumbartonDumbarton3640
28%
1.1
4761-14
3.0
92%
58%
28%
10.6
54%
3.5
46%
20.8
46%
0
0001.31.7
-
9Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3639
28%
1.1
4572-27
3.2
86%
69%
44%
9.5
51%
5.2
80%
23.8
66%
0
0001.22.0
-
10StirlingStirling3638
25%
1.1
4663-17
3.0
83%
58%
36%
11.4
58%
4.1
58%
20.7
36%
0
0001.31.8
-
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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